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Angel Oak Mortgage
(NYSE:AOMR)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$7.50
â–¼(-11.14% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/30/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash-flow consistency and still-meaningful leverage risk within a volatile mortgage REIT financial profile, reinforced by bearish technical trends. These are partially offset by attractive headline valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and a generally positive earnings-call outlook focused on disciplined securitization activity, liquidity, and financing-cost improvements, with corporate events providing a modest additional tailwind via improved funding terms.
Positive Factors
Improving earnings and interest income
Higher net income, interest income, and distributable earnings indicate improving operating performance and stronger monetization of the mortgage portfolio. If sustained, this growth can support reinvestment, absorb funding costs, and reinforce the company’s earnings capacity over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Deeply negative and volatile cash generation
Recent cash burn and a history of sharp annual swings weaken the reliability of internally generated liquidity. For a mortgage finance business, inconsistent cash generation can increase reliance on warehouse and securitization funding, constrain capital allocation, and heighten sensitivity to market disruption.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving earnings and interest income
Higher net income, interest income, and distributable earnings indicate improving operating performance and stronger monetization of the mortgage portfolio. If sustained, this growth can support reinvestment, absorb funding costs, and reinforce the company’s earnings capacity over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Angel Oak Mortgage (AOMR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$171.09M
Dividend Yield17.37%
Average Volume (3M)147.25K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.3
Beta (1Y)0.82
Revenue Growth25.55%
EPS Growth-50.15%
CountryUS
Employees300
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.79
Shares Outstanding23,214,876
10 Day Avg. Volume93,915
30 Day Avg. Volume147,248
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)0.76
Price to Sales (P/S)1.54
P/FCF Ratio10.97
Enterprise Value/Market Cap15.56
Enterprise Value/Revenue16.45
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit36.79
Enterprise Value/Ebitda54.24
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.69Price Target Upside14.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$45.34M
Angel Oak Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Angel Oak Mortgage, Inc. (AOMR) operates as a real estate finance firm, primarily acquiring and investing in first-lien non-qualified mortgage (non-QM) loans and various other mortgage-backed assets across the United States. The company holds Real...
How the Company Makes Money
AOMR primarily makes money by originating residential mortgage loans and then monetizing those loans through sale into the secondary market and/or through securitization structures, earning gain-on-sale and related transaction economics when loans...
Angel Oak Mortgage Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: meaningful year-over-year increases in GAAP net income and distributable earnings, active loan deployment with strong underwriting metrics, successful post-quarter securitizations, strategic capital actions (bond monetization, $15M buyback, 35 bps warehouse spread reduction), and solid liquidity that reduces pro forma leverage. Offsetting items include ~ $6M of unrealized mark-to-market losses (loan and derivative-driven), a modest QoQ decline in book value, rising prepayment speeds and a small uptick in 90+ day delinquencies, plus continued macro and consumer credit uncertainty. Overall, management emphasized disciplined, value-driven capital deployment and expects ongoing securitization activity and improved financing costs to support returns, suggesting the positives materially outweigh the near-term mark-to-market and macro-related headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong GAAP Net Income Improvement
GAAP net income of $3.4M ($0.14 per diluted share) in Q2 2026 versus $0.8M ($0.03) in Q2 2025, representing ~325% year-over-year increase in net income and a large improvement in per-share EPS.
Negative Updates
Unrealized Mark-to-Market Losses
Unrealized valuation decreases totaled approximately $3.6M in securitized and residential loans plus $2.4M in derivatives (total ~ $6.0M), which contributed to a gap between GAAP net income and distributable earnings and pressure on quarter valuations.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong GAAP Net Income Improvement
GAAP net income of $3.4M ($0.14 per diluted share) in Q2 2026 versus $0.8M ($0.03) in Q2 2025, representing ~325% year-over-year increase in net income and a large improvement in per-share EPS.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management’s guidance emphasized a disciplined, value‑driven approach: target roughly one securitization per quarter (≈4/year) with a likely second HELOC securitization this year and the potential for a second non‑QM deal in Q3, a strategic HELOC allocation of ~10–15% of the portfolio, and continued selective origination (Q2 loan purchases $204M; weighted average coupon 7.34%; WA CLTV 70.5%; WA FICO 759). They expect to maintain conservative leverage and liquidity (cash $48.6M; undrawn financing capacity ≈$900M), with recourse debt‑to‑equity near 2.3x pre‑securitization and ~1x after the recent AOMT 2026‑3 and AOMT 2026‑HB1 deals, keep operating expenses broadly stable (~$3.6M GAAP; $3.2M ex‑stock comp), and realize improved economics from recent actions (warehouse spread reduced 35 bps; $15M share repurchase), model returns of ~13–14% in the warehouse phase and ~15–20% post‑securitization, and assume long‑run prepayment speeds of 20–30% (current 3‑month non‑QM RMBS prepay 13.6%), while expecting book value to remain relatively flat (GAAP BV $10.13; economic BV $12.24).Angel Oak Mortgage Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 161.85M | 132.79M | 51.46M | 54.86M | -157.95M | 41.76M |
| Gross Profit | 72.39M | 119.61M | 51.46M | 54.86M | -157.95M | 41.76M |
| EBITDA | 49.09M | 151.64M | 3.26M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Net Income | 18.70M | 44.02M | 28.75M | 33.71M | -187.83M | 21.11M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.99B | 2.75B | 2.27B | 2.31B | 2.95B | 2.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 48.63M | 41.62M | 40.76M | 41.63M | 29.27M | 40.80M |
| Total Debt | 2.49B | 2.28B | 1.77B | 1.46B | 1.64B | 1.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.76B | 2.48B | 2.03B | 2.05B | 2.71B | 2.09B |
| Stockholders Equity | 234.87M | 267.52M | 238.97M | 256.11M | 236.48M | 491.39M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -451.49M | 18.59M | -221.43M | 306.40M | -331.13M | -1.57B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -451.49M | 18.59M | -221.43M | 306.40M | -331.13M | -1.57B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 49.64M | -411.88M | 120.84M | -194.11M | 664.33M | -460.48M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 409.54M | 395.68M | 98.99M | -107.66M | -345.65M | 2.03B |
Angel Oak Mortgage Technical Analysis
Neutral
8.44
Price Trends
7.80
Negative
8.13
Negative
8.06
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.16
Negative
48.54
Neutral
71.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AOMR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 8.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.24, above the 50-day MA of 7.80, and above the 200-day MA of 8.06, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AOMR.
Angel Oak Mortgage Risk Analysis
Angel Oak Mortgage disclosed 110 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Angel Oak Mortgage reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Angel Oak Mortgage Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $240.07M | 6.74 | 9.62% | 20.06% | -2.58% | -25.73% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
62 Neutral | $294.22M | 4.49 | 18.36% | 12.81% | 1.61% | 14.36% | |
61 Neutral | $140.36M | 9.25 | 3.78% | 18.08% | -2.38% | -35.43% | |
61 Neutral | $173.01M | 7.35 | 7.95% | 17.46% | 17.78% | -15.05% | |
55 Neutral | $171.09M | 9.33 | 7.31% | 17.37% | 25.55% | -50.15% | |
48 Neutral | $185.86M | -44.49 | -0.88% | 17.91% | 28.95% | 76.08% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
AOMR
Angel Oak Mortgage
7.37
-0.61
-7.63%
ACRE
Ares Commercial
3.35
-0.70
-17.35%
SEVN
Seven Hills Realty Trust
6.20
-2.51
-28.83%
MITT
AG Mortgage
5.44
-0.96
-14.95%
NREF
NexPoint Real Estate ate Finance
15.61
3.62
30.15%
REFI
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc
9.37
-1.81
-16.17%
Angel Oak Mortgage Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Angel Oak Mortgage Extends Key Loan Financing Facility
Positive
Sep 29, 2026
On September 25, 2026, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. and two subsidiaries extended a loan financing facility with Global Investment Bank 3 by one year, pushing the maturity to September 25, 2027. This extension helps secure ongoing access to fundi...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Angel Oak Mortgage Extends Key Loan Financing Facility
Positive
Sep 29, 2026
On September 25, 2026, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. and two subsidiaries extended a loan financing facility with Multinational Bank 1 that had been scheduled to expire the same day. The agreement, structured around rolling three-month renewals, n...
Financial Disclosures
Angel Oak Mortgage Sets Date for Q2 2026 Results
Neutral
Jul 21, 2026
On July 21, 2026, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. announced it would release its second quarter 2026 financial results before the market opens on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. The company scheduled a webcast and conference call for that morning at 8:30 a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.