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AG Mortgage
(NYSE:MITT)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▼(-2.11% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/11/26
The score is driven by improving operating results and constructive earnings-call guidance (dividend coverage, legacy-asset resolution catalysts, and accretive scale/synergies from the Cherry Hill deal). Offsetting these positives are elevated balance-sheet risk and historical volatility, plus weak technicals with the stock trading below key moving averages.
Positive Factors
Transformational acquisition (Cherry Hill)
The Cherry Hill deal materially increases scale and the equity base (~$750M pro forma), which should improve liquidity, broaden the asset mix (MSR and Agency RMBS), and deliver $7–9M of recurring G&A synergies. Over 2–6 months this can enhance execution of securitizations and lower per‑unit costs if integration proceeds as planned.
Negative Factors
Elevated historical leverage and balance‑sheet risk
Prior multi‑year high leverage for a mortgage REIT implies pronounced sensitivity to rate moves and funding stress; the dramatic TTM reduction may reflect classification shifts or one‑offs. Until sustained over several reporting cycles, elevated historical leverage remains a material structural risk to capital flexibility and long‑term resilience.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Transformational acquisition (Cherry Hill)
The Cherry Hill deal materially increases scale and the equity base (~$750M pro forma), which should improve liquidity, broaden the asset mix (MSR and Agency RMBS), and deliver $7–9M of recurring G&A synergies. Over 2–6 months this can enhance execution of securitizations and lower per‑unit costs if integration proceeds as planned.
Read all positive factors
AG Mortgage (MITT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$211.18M
Dividend Yield13.81%
Average Volume (3M)171.58K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.0
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth17.78%
EPS Growth-15.05%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.74
Shares Outstanding31,803,474
10 Day Avg. Volume140,702
30 Day Avg. Volume171,578
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.35
Price to Book (P/B)0.47
Price to Sales (P/S)0.56
P/FCF Ratio4.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.75Price Target Upside31.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$87.98M
AG Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc (MITT) operates as a U.S.-based real estate investment trust (REIT) primarily concentrated on residential mortgages. Its diverse portfolio includes various residential assets such as non-conforming mortgage loans,...
How the Company Makes Money
MITT primarily makes money from the net interest income it earns on its mortgage-related investments: it purchases or originates/holds residential mortgage assets that generate interest and other cash flows, and it funds those assets with short- a...
AG Mortgage Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated multiple strategic wins: a transformational acquisition (Cherry Hill) that materially increases scale and expected synergies, continued securitization activity with a sizeable Q3 pipeline, solid EAD that fully covers the dividend, and clear plans to recycle legacy commercial capital into higher‑return residential strategies. Offsetting these positives are macro pressures from interest rate volatility, remaining legacy nonaccrual exposures until fully resolved, modest book value growth, and competitive pressures in non‑agency markets. On balance, the company presented a clear path to earnings accretion and improved scale and liquidity, with identifiable catalysts (legacy asset resolutions and transaction synergies) that should drive meaningful upside if executed as planned.Positive Updates
Definitive Agreement to Acquire Cherry Hill
Signed a definitive agreement to acquire Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp.; transaction expected to close in Q4. Combined market capitalization to increase by ~36% and create an equity capital base of approximately $750M. TPG to contribute ~$20M cash and MITT to contribute ~$15M cash (cash to stock consideration ~30%). Expected annual G&A synergies of ~$7M–$9M and immediate earnings contribution from Cherry Hill's MSR and Agency RMBS portfolios. Pro forma economic leverage expected to settle at ~2.9 turns.
Negative Updates
Challenging Interest Rate and Market Backdrop
Operating environment marked by renewed inflation concerns, uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy and a bear flattener/higher nominal yields. These macro factors limited mark‑to‑market upside and created a challenging origination backdrop for parts of the business.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Definitive Agreement to Acquire Cherry Hill
Signed a definitive agreement to acquire Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp.; transaction expected to close in Q4. Combined market capitalization to increase by ~36% and create an equity capital base of approximately $750M. TPG to contribute ~$20M cash and MITT to contribute ~$15M cash (cash to stock consideration ~30%). Expected annual G&A synergies of ~$7M–$9M and immediate earnings contribution from Cherry Hill's MSR and Agency RMBS portfolios. Pro forma economic leverage expected to settle at ~2.9 turns.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that the Cherry Hill acquisition is expected to close in Q4 2026, creating a combined market cap ~36% larger and an equity capital base of ~$750M, with TPG and MITT contributing roughly $20M and $15M cash (cash‑to‑stock consideration ~30%) and expected annual G&A synergies of ~$7–9M; pro forma economic leverage is expected to be ~2.9 turns versus current economic leverage of 1.8 turns (up 0.1 turns QoQ). Key Q2 metrics reiterated: EAD $0.24/share (fully covering the $0.24 dividend), Arc Home contribution $0.04/share and $6.6M distributed, GAAP net income ~$9.1M ($0.29/share), net interest income $0.65/share vs $0.45 of expenses/preferred dividends yielding $0.20 net earnings, book value up from $9.97 to $10 (0.3% QoQ; 2.7% economic return incl. dividend), investment portfolio $7.7B (from $8.1B), liquidity $112M, Q2 securitizations >$750M and >$1.25B expected in Q3 across 3 home‑equity deals, purchases of $70M HELOCs and $38M non‑Agency RMBS. Management expects legacy commercial/retail/hospitality resolutions to unlock ~ $30M of capital, contributing ~ $0.05 incremental EAD near‑term and >$0.15/year upon full recycling (aggregate ~ $0.20 annual EAD) beginning in Q3 and accelerating through 2027, supporting guidance for stronger ROEs, higher EAD and continued dividend growth.AG Mortgage Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 487.03M | 472.69M | 413.19M | 274.71M | 256.77M | 67.52M |
| Gross Profit | 357.86M | 447.80M | 392.14M | 257.19M | 239.48M | 53.91M |
| EBITDA | 385.39M | 476.32M | 398.45M | 266.28M | 71.28M | 137.52M |
| Net Income | 43.95M | 48.67M | 55.74M | 53.78M | -53.10M | 104.19M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.94B | 8.71B | 6.91B | 6.13B | 4.37B | 3.36B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 61.64M | 76.32M | 118.87M | 111.53M | 84.62M | 68.31M |
| Total Debt | 7.34B | 8.10B | 6.33B | 5.56B | 3.88B | 2.78B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.39B | 8.15B | 6.37B | 5.60B | 3.91B | 2.79B |
| Stockholders Equity | 546.00M | 560.73M | 543.42M | 528.37M | 462.80M | 570.38M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 79.07M | 59.57M | 55.84M | 28.13M | 22.52M | 26.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 79.07M | 59.57M | 55.84M | 28.13M | 22.52M | 26.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -498.38M | -1.67B | -713.13M | -433.50M | -1.49B | -1.90B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 401.30M | 1.55B | 670.29M | 432.14M | 1.47B | 1.91B |
AG Mortgage Technical Analysis
Negative
6.64
Price Trends
7.28
Negative
7.43
Negative
7.55
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.17
Negative
38.25
Neutral
53.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MITT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.79, below the 50-day MA of 7.28, and below the 200-day MA of 7.55, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MITT.
AG Mortgage Risk Analysis
AG Mortgage disclosed 4 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AG Mortgage reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Completion of the Merger remains subject to conditions that we cannot control. Q2, 2026
2.
We may fail to realize all of the expected benefits of the Merger or those benefits may take longer to realize than expected. Q2, 2026
3.
We will incur direct and indirect costs as a result of the Merger. Q2, 2026
AG Mortgage Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $324.00M | 4.85 | 18.36% | 11.91% | 1.61% | 14.36% | |
67 Neutral | $273.63M | 7.68 | 9.62% | 18.49% | -2.58% | -25.73% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
61 Neutral | $211.18M | 9.00 | 7.95% | 12.72% | 17.78% | -15.05% | |
57 Neutral | $194.08M | 10.61 | 7.31% | 14.55% | 25.55% | -50.15% | |
50 Neutral | $256.88M | -61.49 | -0.88% | 12.93% | 28.95% | 76.08% | |
44 Neutral | $101.83M | -13.06 | 6.11% | ― | -2.62% | -7470.75% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
MITT
AG Mortgage
6.66
<0.01
0.05%
ACRE
Ares Commercial
4.63
0.52
12.68%
ACR
ACRES Commercial Realty
14.10
-6.70
-32.21%
NREF
NexPoint Real Estate ate Finance
17.38
4.36
33.51%
AOMR
Angel Oak Mortgage
8.38
0.02
0.26%
REFI
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc
10.67
-1.39
-11.50%
AG Mortgage Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
AG Mortgage to Acquire Cherry Hill in Merger
Positive
Aug 10, 2026
On August 9–10, 2026, TPG Mortgage Investment Trust agreed to acquire Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation in an all‑stock‑and‑cash deal valued at roughly $117.5 million, combining two residential mortgage REITs into...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.