Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc AI Stock Analysis
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Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc (REFI) AI Stock Analysis
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc
(NASDAQ:REFI)
REFI scores highest on valuation (low P/E and very high dividend yield) supported by generally solid fundamentals (strong margins and reasonable leverage). The score is held back by weak technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD/low RSI) and fundamental trajectory concerns (TTM revenue decline and weaker cash conversion), while the earnings call was constructive but highlighted liquidity, origination slowdown, and merger uncertainty.
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc (REFI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $237.25M
- Dividend Yield
- 20.30%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 190.39K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 7.6
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.53
- Revenue Growth
- 1.21%
- EPS Growth
- -29.18%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 0
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Sector Strength
- 65
- Industry
- REIT - Mortgage
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. functions as a commercial real estate financing enterprise operating throughout the United States. Its primary activities include developing, arranging, and deploying capital into various secured debt instru...
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Earnings Call Summary
The call was broadly positive on operating execution, portfolio yield, quarterly fundings, Koach contribution, dividend continuity, rate sensitivity, and the potential strategic benefits of the REFI-LIEN combination. However, the company also reported significant share-price underperformance, limited liquidity, an expected fourth-quarter origination slowdown, higher interest expense, credit reserves, and continued merger approval uncertainty. The highlights outweighed the lowlights, supporting a positive overall sentiment.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Management said it expects originations to slow during the fourth quarter of 2026; as of today, approximately $15.2 million was available on the senior credit facility and total liquidity net of estimated liabilities and anticipated fundings was approximately $12 million. Management said the press release gives the expected merger timing as "'27," while the process remains ongoing, and said it expects additional opportunities to rotate properties, although the specific cadence will be difficult to forecast. Management does not expect a broad shift into syndicates or agency credits or mortgage-backed securities. Each 25 basis point interest rate increase is expected to lead to $0.015 per share improvement in quarterly distributable earnings.
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Fundamentals are solid but mixed: profitability is strong with very high net margins (TTM ~52%), and leverage is moderate for a mortgage REIT with consistently positive ROE (~10% TTM). Offsetting this, TTM revenue declined materially (~24.5%) and cash conversion weakened (TTM operating cash flow ~0.30x net income), reducing confidence in near-term stability.
Income Statement
62PositiveBalance Sheet
74PositiveCash Flow
58Neutral| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 46.46M | 63.10M | 54.78M | 57.33M | 48.86M | 14.47M |
| Gross Profit | 41.20M | 54.82M | 54.78M | 57.33M | 48.86M | 14.24M |
| EBITDA | 24.90M | 36.01M | 0 | 0 | 563.46M | 101.15K |
| Net Income | 26.90M | 36.01M | 37.05M | 38.71M | 32.29M | 12.66M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 468.19M | 424.92M | 435.15M | 359.23M | 343.27M | 278.17M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.27M | 14.95M | 26.40M | 7.90M | 5.72M | 80.25M |
| Total Debt | 49.51M | 98.43M | 104.10M | 66.00M | 58.00M | 0 |
| Total Liabilities | 165.54M | 117.10M | 126.19M | 87.37M | 79.24M | 14.09M |
| Stockholders Equity | 302.65M | 307.81M | 308.96M | 271.85M | 264.03M | 264.08M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 18.74M | 28.79M | 23.16M | 28.42M | 17.01M | 6.67M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 18.74M | 28.79M | 23.16M | 28.42M | 17.01M | 6.67M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -42.19M | 8.74M | -39.30M | -1.93M | -125.24M | -145.22M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 7.88M | -48.98M | 34.64M | -24.31M | 33.71M | 218.80M |
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For REFI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.07, below the 50-day MA of 9.70, and below the 200-day MA of 10.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for REFI.
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Risk Analysis
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc disclosed 113 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
3 New RisksChicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
SEVN66Neutral- REFI65Neutral
ACRE57Neutral
NREF57Neutral
MITT50Neutral
AOMR43Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEVN | 66Neutral | $153.85M | 8.43 | 5.04% | 16.62% | 4.05% | -22.53% |
| Sector * | 65Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% |
| REFI | 65Neutral | $237.25M | 7.59 | 8.85% | 20.30% | 1.21% | -29.18% |
| ACRE | 57Neutral | $197.55M | 178.00 | 0.19% | 16.85% | 62.05% | ― |
| NREF | 57Neutral | $241.25M | 15.06 | 18.36% | 15.62% | 1.61% | 14.36% |
| MITT | 50Neutral | $139.62M | -19.95 | 2.48% | 21.64% | 11.89% | -124.83% |
| AOMR | 43Neutral | $145.05M | -14.76 | -3.87% | 20.65% | 27.73% | -157.12% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REFI | Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. | 9.26 | -1.59 | -14.63% | |
| ACRE | Ares Commercial Real Estate | 3.56 | -0.74 | -17.17% | |
| SEVN | Seven Hills Realty Trust | 6.74 | -0.86 | -11.27% | |
| MITT | AG Mortgage Investment Trust | 4.39 | -2.47 | -36.02% | |
| NREF | Nexpoint Real Estate Finance Inc | 12.80 | 0.48 | 3.91% | |
| AOMR | Angel Oak Mortgage, Inc. | 6.20 | -1.47 | -19.16% |
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Corporate Events
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Reports Third-Quarter Results
NeutralOn November 10, 2026, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance announced financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. The company reported $12,564,095 of distributable earnings, or $0.49 per diluted weighted average share, $6,434,023...
Chicago Atlantic Reports Q2 Results, Advances BDC Merger
NeutralOn August 11, 2026, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance reported second-quarter 2026 results showing $59.2 million in gross originations and total loan principal outstanding rising to about $453.1 million, with 26 portfolio companies. Net interest i...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 10, 2026