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AGI Inc Class A
(NYSE:AGBK)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$8.00
▲(28.41% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:10/14/26
The score is led by strong technical momentum and a low P/E valuation, but is held back by elevated financial risk signals—especially negative 2025 operating/free cash flow alongside a sharp increase in leverage despite strong reported earnings.
Positive Factors
Strong Revenue Growth
Revenue more than doubled from 2023 to 2025, demonstrating substantial top-line expansion over the reported period. If this scale is maintained, it can support broader operating leverage, greater business capacity, and a stronger foundation for continued earnings generation.
Negative Factors
Sharp Leverage Increase
The sharp rise in debt and debt-to-equity materially reduces balance-sheet flexibility. Higher leverage leaves less room to absorb weaker earnings or deteriorating credit conditions, while increasing the importance of sustained profitability and continued access to funding markets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Revenue Growth
Revenue more than doubled from 2023 to 2025, demonstrating substantial top-line expansion over the reported period. If this scale is maintained, it can support broader operating leverage, greater business capacity, and a stronger foundation for continued earnings generation.
Read all positive factors
AGI Inc Class A (AGBK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.17B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)268.45K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.9
Beta (1Y)1.59
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees4,700
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.13
Shares Outstanding58,700,710
10 Day Avg. Volume406,006
30 Day Avg. Volume268,450
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.18
Price to Book (P/B)2.87
Price to Sales (P/S)0.88
P/FCF Ratio-16.46
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.79
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.48
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.09
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.00Price Target Upside76.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)6.28
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.17B
AGI Inc Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AGI Inc. stands as a leading provider of innovative, technology-centric financial solutions operating across Brazil. The company primarily facilitates social security and severance benefits, along with public and private sector payroll management,...
AGI Inc Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive view: strong customer and loan growth, improving revenue and recurring profitability, scaled funding and capital metrics, and evidence of operational recovery following a temporary payroll-credit disruption. Management emphasized structural improvements (business-unit model and centralized risk/data/AI) and resilient asset quality. Key short-term challenges include regulatory uncertainty (TCU/Desenrola), a temporary hit to fee and insurance revenues, write-off timing effects and margin pressure from asset-mix and higher benchmark rates. Overall, the positives—robust growth, recovery signs and solid capital/efficiency metrics—outweigh the transitory lowlights, though regulatory and margin risks warrant monitoring.Positive Updates
Strong Customer Growth
Total active customers increased 53% year-over-year to 7.1 million (defined as users of at least one product) and grew 5% quarter-over-quarter, demonstrating durable demand and scale in the customer base.
Negative Updates
Regulatory Uncertainty and Temporary Disruptions
The quarter experienced temporary disruption in the payroll credit ecosystem (including TCU action and ongoing government review). Regulatory noise (e.g., recent TCU activity and Desenrola changes) creates short-term uncertainty even though management views many changes as addressable.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Customer Growth
Total active customers increased 53% year-over-year to 7.1 million (defined as users of at least one product) and grew 5% quarter-over-quarter, demonstrating durable demand and scale in the customer base.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said it will not issue formal numeric guidance but expects a structural recovery and normalization over the coming quarters, supported by strong Q1 metrics: total active customers were 7.1 million (+53% YoY, +5% QoQ) and product penetration rose to >6 products on average (above 7 in mature cohorts); total loans were BRL 35.5 billion (+30% YoY) with secured loans ~87% (BRL 30.7b) and unsecured ~13% (≈BRL 4.7–4.8b, +4.8% YoY); private payroll reached BRL 1.0b (production >BRL 200m/month in Mar/Apr) and public payroll BRL 0.3b; INSS market share was 9% (+210 bps YoY) and origination hit 106% of pre‑suspension levels in March. Asset quality was stable (NPL>90 days 3.6%, coverage 165%), revenue/earnings momentum showed total revenue ~BRL 3.0b (+24% YoY), NII BRL 1.3b (+9% YoY), annualized NIM 12% (7.3% after provisions, +50 bps QoQ), recurring net income BRL 186.5m (+14.7% QoQ adj), deposits BRL 39.3b (+37% YoY), funding split 55% institutional/45% retail, LTM ROE 26.1%, and consolidated capital adequacy/Tier‑1 at 19.3%/18.1%; management noted NIM and recovery timing will depend on Selic and fee/insurance rebound but reiterated confidence in the long‑term thesis (aiming to scale to >BRL100b credit portfolio by decade end and a long‑term mix toward roughly 90% secured / 10% unsecured).AGI Inc Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 11.93B | 10.69B | 7.27B | 4.99B |
| Gross Profit | 4.37B | 4.77B | 3.33B | 2.29B |
| EBITDA | 1.01B | 1.54B | 1.21B | 716.49M |
| Net Income | 811.91M | 1.04B | 791.01M | 421.99M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 51.11B | 47.76B | 29.51B | 19.36B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 892.76M | 1.11B | 468.57M | 393.53M |
| Total Debt | 6.29B | 4.93B | 1.26B | 578.22M |
| Total Liabilities | 46.31B | 44.48B | 27.04B | 18.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.80B | 3.28B | 2.36B | 1.31B |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.22B | -572.01M | 379.24M | -113.66M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -991.91M | -409.62M | 487.04M | -33.32M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -230.24M | -162.39M | -107.80M | -78.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.90B | 19.88M | 572.78M | -69.75M |
AGI Inc Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $1.30B | 15.09 | 11.40% | 2.61% | 13.29% | -4.08% | |
71 Outperform | $1.17B | 8.93 | 20.53% | ― | ― | ― | |
70 Outperform | $1.27B | 11.51 | 12.41% | 1.13% | 33.92% | -4.91% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $1.03B | 12.42 | 8.01% | 4.71% | 7.53% | 38.21% | |
66 Neutral | $1.09B | 9.85 | 19.35% | 0.03% | 9.28% | 25.70% | |
56 Neutral | $666.48M | -173.24 | -0.80% | ― | 7.30% | -106.97% |
* Financial Sector Average
AGBK
AGI Inc Class A
7.27
-3.48
-32.37%
CFFN
Capitol Federal Financial
8.33
2.39
40.12%
NBN
Northeast Bancorp
128.86
34.80
37.00%
OSBC
Old Second Bancorp
24.71
7.09
40.25%
CCB
Coastal Financial
44.90
-59.20
-56.87%
HBT
HBT Financial
36.24
12.44
52.27%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.