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Old Second Bancorp
(NASDAQ:OSBC)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$27.00
▲(7.27% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/22/26
OSBC scores well primarily on solid financial performance (strong profitability, meaningful revenue growth, and strong cash conversion), supported by a constructive earnings-call outlook with continued capital returns despite credit and funding-cost headwinds. Valuation is reasonable (P/E ~11.5), while technical indicators are more neutral with slightly negative momentum.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth and Cash Generation
Strong multi-year revenue expansion demonstrates meaningful scale growth, while free cash flow nearly matching net income indicates effective earnings conversion. Together, these trends support internally funded growth, capital returns, and greater resilience over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated Loan Losses
Material quarterly charge-offs continue to weigh on earnings and demonstrate that credit risk remains active despite improving portfolio metrics. Concentration in a commercial relationship and recurring powersports losses could require further provisions or capital absorption.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth and Cash Generation
Strong multi-year revenue expansion demonstrates meaningful scale growth, while free cash flow nearly matching net income indicates effective earnings conversion. Together, these trends support internally funded growth, capital returns, and greater resilience over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Old Second Bancorp (OSBC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.27B
Dividend Yield1.13%
Average Volume (3M)552.88K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.5
Beta (1Y)0.79
Revenue Growth33.92%
EPS Growth-4.91%
CountryUS
Employees1,062
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.78
Shares Outstanding50,875,717
10 Day Avg. Volume583,056
30 Day Avg. Volume552,875
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.87
Price to Book (P/B)1.15
Price to Sales (P/S)2.59
P/FCF Ratio8.72
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.96
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.96
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.46
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$29.00Price Target Upside15.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)2.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)$387.61M
Old Second Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. (OSBC) serves as the parent holding company for Old Second National Bank, providing a full range of community banking services. The institution offers a broad spectrum of deposit products, including demand, NOW, money mark...
How the Company Makes Money
Old Second Bancorp makes money primarily through its banking subsidiary by (1) earning net interest income and (2) generating noninterest income (fees), while managing operating expenses and credit losses.
1) Net interest income (core earnings dr...
Old Second Bancorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 21, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 27, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was predominantly positive. Management reported strong profitability, an exceptional net interest margin, improving classified and criticized loan metrics, solid operating performance, broad lending pipelines, a new Ducati partnership, continued capital returns, and expectations for deposit growth. These positives were partially offset by elevated charge-offs, ongoing powersports losses, loan prepayments, deposit and funding pressures, expected margin giveback, and higher operating costs.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Profitability
Third-quarter GAAP net income was $28.9 million, or $0.56 per diluted share, with return on assets of 1.69%, return on average tangible common equity of 15.77%, and an efficiency ratio of 52.34%. Excluding MSR valuation adjustments, net income was $28.5 million, or $0.55 per diluted share.
Negative Updates
Elevated Net Loan Charge-Offs
Third-quarter earnings were affected by $12.7 million of net loan charge-offs, including $9.2 million of C&I charge-offs primarily tied to one warehousing and distribution relationship and $3.1 million of powersports charge-offs. Management said $6.0 million of the $9.2 million C&I charge-off had been previously reserved and that the related company is under contract to be sold at a much lower price.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Profitability
Third-quarter GAAP net income was $28.9 million, or $0.56 per diluted share, with return on assets of 1.69%, return on average tangible common equity of 15.77%, and an efficiency ratio of 52.34%. Excluding MSR valuation adjustments, net income was $28.5 million, or $0.55 per diluted share.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management expects loan growth in the fourth quarter of 2026 to be “in the low single level,” expense growth to “continue to be modest in the quarters ahead,” and deposit growth in the fourth quarter, with most post-acquisition attrition “largely behind us”; it expects to give back “5 basis points or so” on margin but remain “solidly above a 25 margin for the near and intermediate term,” assuming “high cost deposit attrition slows,” and expects “45% of our loan book” and “25% of our securities portfolio” to reprice in the “next 3 to 4 quarters.” Management said investors could reasonably expect to “take out 5% of shares a year,” reserve levels will “not run much lower from here,” near-term expenses around $51.5 million “makes perfect sense,” and annual expense growth in the “3 to 4% range” is expected, while the common dividend was increased “by 14%” in the fourth quarter of 2026.Old Second Bancorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 429.93M | 396.97M | 336.17M | 321.03M | 255.24M | 141.89M |
| Gross Profit | 343.02M | 310.20M | 267.15M | 264.49M | 238.37M | 129.11M |
| EBITDA | 136.50M | 122.00M | 122.12M | 132.11M | 98.43M | 31.66M |
| Net Income | 92.42M | 80.31M | 85.26M | 91.73M | 67.41M | 20.04M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.85B | 6.90B | 5.65B | 5.72B | 5.89B | 6.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 46.70M | 196.38M | 1.26B | 1.29B | 1.65B | 2.45B |
| Total Debt | 468.66M | 338.92M | 141.90M | 516.63M | 260.81M | 198.88M |
| Total Liabilities | 5.95B | 6.01B | 4.98B | 5.15B | 5.43B | 5.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | 902.81M | 896.77M | 671.03M | 577.28M | 461.14M | 502.03M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 141.43M | 117.76M | 120.75M | 104.03M | 93.01M | 29.01M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 145.71M | 122.26M | 131.53M | 116.40M | 97.34M | 31.05M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 196.35M | 159.82M | 322.70M | 161.56M | -432.78M | 132.92M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -340.49M | -257.39M | -455.05M | -292.99M | -301.50M | 258.24M |
Old Second Bancorp Technical Analysis
Positive
25.17
Price Trends
25.12
Negative
24.20
Positive
22.26
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.03
Negative
49.54
Neutral
51.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OSBC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.17 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.81, above the 50-day MA of 25.12, and above the 200-day MA of 22.26, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OSBC.
Old Second Bancorp Risk Analysis
Old Second Bancorp disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Old Second Bancorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Old Second Bancorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $1.30B | 15.09 | 11.40% | 2.61% | 13.29% | -4.08% | |
72 Outperform | $1.63B | 11.62 | 12.50% | 0.41% | 3.11% | 18.83% | |
72 Outperform | $1.33B | 12.19 | 9.86% | 2.05% | 10.34% | 14.55% | |
72 Outperform | $1.70B | 11.23 | 11.75% | 1.28% | 2.81% | 23.43% | |
70 Outperform | $1.27B | 11.51 | 12.41% | 1.13% | 33.92% | -4.91% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $675.69M | 20.37 | 7.55% | 3.96% | -21.58% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
OSBC
Old Second Bancorp
24.71
7.09
40.25%
QCRH
QCR Holdings
103.04
29.61
40.33%
MSBI
Midland States Bancrop
32.96
17.51
113.29%
FMBH
First Mid-Illinois Bancshares
50.62
14.92
41.78%
BY
Byline Bancorp
37.99
11.73
44.66%
HBT
HBT Financial
36.24
12.44
52.27%
Old Second Bancorp Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Old Second Bancorp Announces Vice Chairman Retirement
Neutral
Oct 19, 2026
On October 14, 2026, Old Second Bancorp announced that Vice Chairman Gary Collins will retire from his roles at Old Second Bancorp, Inc. and Old Second National Bank, effective October 31, 2026, and will simultaneously resign from both boards of d...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.