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United Parcel
(NYSE:UPS)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$98.00
▼(-6.79% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/19/26
The score is driven primarily by steady but not standout financial performance: solid cash generation and improving TTM free cash flow are offset by normalized (lower) margins versus 2021–2022 and elevated leverage. The latest earnings call was a positive input due to raised 2026 guidance and evidence of productivity and mix-driven margin improvement. Technical indicators are the main drag, reflecting weak near-term momentum despite valuation support from a high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Automation and productivity
Rising automation penetration and materially lower automated-building costs provide a durable efficiency advantage. The reconfigured network is also expanding revenue per piece faster than cost per piece, supporting more sustainable margin improvement over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Profitability below prior peaks
UPS remains profitable, but its current margin structure is well below the exceptional 2021–2022 period. The lower level suggests pricing, mix or cost pressures have not been fully reversed, limiting earnings resilience if operating conditions weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Automation and productivity
Rising automation penetration and materially lower automated-building costs provide a durable efficiency advantage. The reconfigured network is also expanding revenue per piece faster than cost per piece, supporting more sustainable margin improvement over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
United Parcel Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Average Daily Packages
Indicates the volume of packages handled daily, highlighting operational scale, efficiency, and demand trends in the logistics network.
Indicates the volume of packages handled daily, highlighting operational scale, efficiency, and demand trends in the logistics network.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyUnited Parcel (UPS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$79.14B
Dividend Yield7.04%
Average Volume (3M)4.47M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.3
Beta (1Y)0.81
Revenue Growth-0.18%
EPS Growth-19.99%
CountryUS
Employees460,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.39
Shares Outstanding749,349,400
10 Day Avg. Volume5,362,199
30 Day Avg. Volume4,465,015
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-5.11
Price to Book (P/B)5.19
Price to Sales (P/S)0.95
P/FCF Ratio17.67
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.46
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.28
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.72
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.90
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$116.35Price Target Upside10.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)7.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)$91.51B
United Parcel Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-d...
How the Company Makes Money
UPS makes money primarily by charging customers for transportation and logistics services, with revenue driven by shipment volume, shipment characteristics (e.g., weight, size, distance, and service speed), and value-added services. Its key revenu...
United Parcel Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong operational execution: completion of the Amazon glide down, meaningful network automation and productivity gains, solid revenue and operating profit growth, raised full-year guidance, and momentum in higher-margin businesses (SMB, DAP, health care, Supply Chain Solutions). Headwinds included one-time transformation charges, fuel volatility (with a larger impact on International margins), and year-over-year volume declines driven largely by the planned Amazon reduction and trade/tariff noise. Overall, the positive items (execution, margin expansion, guidance raise, automation, and new revenue momentum) materially outweigh the transitory challenges and one-time costs.Positive Updates
Execution of Amazon glide down and network reconfiguration
Successfully completed Amazon glide down as planned, eliminating ~2 million pieces/day of lower-quality Amazon volume, reconfiguring and automating the U.S. network, removing approximately $4.5 billion of related expense to date and expecting roughly $3.0 billion in related benefits in 2026.
Negative Updates
Volume declines in core metrics
Total U.S. average daily volume down 3.3% YoY; total air ADV down 2.3% YoY (excluding Amazon air ADV up 1.2%); ground ADV down 3.5% YoY largely attributable to planned Amazon glide down. Total international average daily volume declined 5.8% YoY and export ADV down 4.2% YoY.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Execution of Amazon glide down and network reconfiguration
Successfully completed Amazon glide down as planned, eliminating ~2 million pieces/day of lower-quality Amazon volume, reconfiguring and automating the U.S. network, removing approximately $4.5 billion of related expense to date and expecting roughly $3.0 billion in related benefits in 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
UPS raised full‑year 2026 guidance to consolidated revenue of about $91.2 billion, consolidated operating profit of about $8.65 billion and diluted EPS of about $7.22; segment guidance included U.S. Domestic revenue of roughly $60 billion (up ~1% YoY) with a full‑year operating margin of ~7.5% (Q3 ADVs expected to decline mid‑single digits, Q3 revenue ~flat YoY, Q3 margin ~7%, and U.S. domestic margin of ~8.8% in the back half), International revenue up mid‑single digits with full‑year operating margin in the mid‑teens (Q3 margin 13–14%), and Supply Chain Solutions revenue growth in the high single digits with a 10–11% operating margin (Q3 revenue growth low double digits, margin 10–11%); corporate cash guidance included ~ $3.0 billion of capital expenditures, a $1.3 billion pension contribution, expected free cash flow of ~ $5.5 billion (includes Driver Choice payments), and planned dividends of about $5.4 billion, and the company said it still expects to realize roughly $3 billion of benefits from the Amazon glide‑down/network reconfiguration in 2026 (with U.S. Q3→Q4 volume seasonality of ~ +24%).United Parcel Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 89.93B | 88.66B | 90.89B | 90.75B | 100.03B | 97.20B |
| Gross Profit | 14.96B | 16.03B | 17.06B | 17.71B | 20.08B | 17.43B |
| EBITDA | 10.60B | 11.93B | 11.91B | 12.71B | 18.71B | 20.23B |
| Net Income | 4.57B | 5.57B | 5.78B | 6.71B | 11.55B | 12.89B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 71.27B | 73.09B | 70.07B | 70.86B | 71.12B | 69.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.65B | 5.89B | 6.32B | 6.04B | 7.59B | 10.59B |
| Total Debt | 28.67B | 32.29B | 25.65B | 26.73B | 23.52B | 25.53B |
| Total Liabilities | 56.17B | 56.84B | 53.33B | 53.54B | 51.32B | 55.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 15.07B | 16.23B | 16.72B | 17.31B | 19.79B | 14.25B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.49B | 4.76B | 6.21B | 5.08B | 9.34B | 10.81B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.89B | 8.45B | 10.12B | 10.24B | 14.10B | 15.01B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.97B | -4.74B | -217.00M | -7.13B | -7.47B | -3.82B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -6.35B | -4.14B | -6.85B | -5.53B | -11.19B | -6.82B |
United Parcel Technical Analysis
Negative
105.14
Price Trends
101.01
Negative
103.53
Negative
102.42
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.60
Positive
34.87
Neutral
29.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 105.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 96.84, above the 50-day MA of 101.01, and above the 200-day MA of 102.42, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.60 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UPS.
United Parcel Risk Analysis
United Parcel disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. United Parcel reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
United Parcel Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $25.02B | 28.17 | 40.68% | 0.81% | 6.77% | 12.05% | |
72 Outperform | $14.54B | 9.95 | 15.95% | 3.50% | 20.89% | 25.35% | |
67 Neutral | $68.72B | 15.75 | 15.11% | 1.65% | 7.73% | 10.07% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $79.14B | 17.28 | 29.07% | 7.04% | -0.18% | -19.99% | |
62 Neutral | $18.43B | 26.48 | 36.01% | 1.79% | -0.09% | 19.50% | |
54 Neutral | $5.34B | 40.17 | 4.41% | ― | 7.55% | 114.56% |
* Industrials Sector Average
UPS
United Parcel
93.14
11.86
14.59%
CHRW
CH Robinson
140.61
8.27
6.25%
EXPD
Expeditors International
194.12
71.73
58.61%
FDX
FedEx
289.13
93.53
47.81%
ZTO
ZTO Express
19.70
0.75
3.93%
GXO
GXO Logistics
45.99
-9.44
-17.03%
United Parcel Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
United Parcel announces leadership changes in international division
Neutral
Aug 31, 2026
On August 31, 2026, UPS announced that longtime executive Kate Gutmann will retire as Executive Vice President and President, International, Healthcare and Supply Chain Solutions, effective September 1, 2026, and will remain as a strategic advisor...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
United Parcel issues long-dated floating rate senior notes
Positive
Aug 18, 2026
On August 14, 2026, United Parcel Service, Inc. entered into an agreement with a syndicate of underwriters to sell $325,105,000 in aggregate principal amount of Floating Rate Senior Notes due 2076. The company plans to use the net proceeds for gen...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
United Parcel Issues Senior Notes, Bolsters Pension Funding
Positive
Aug 12, 2026
On August 10, 2026, United Parcel Service, Inc. agreed to sell $1,000,000,000 of 4.850% Senior Notes due 2031 to a group of underwriters under an underwriting agreement. The company plans to use the net proceeds from this debt issuance for general...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.