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United Fire Group (UFCS) AI Stock Analysis
United Fire Group
(NASDAQ:UFCS)
UFCS scores well on financial performance (profitability recovery, conservative balance sheet, and strong recent cash generation) and is supported by attractive valuation (low P/E, dividend). These positives are tempered primarily by weak technicals (price below key moving averages with bearish momentum) and, to a lesser extent, earnings-call risks around moderating pricing and competitive pressure despite strong operating execution.
United Fire Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Net Written Premium by SegmentNew and renewed premium written in each segment after reinsurance, reflecting sales momentum, customer retention, and market expansion; rising net written premium points to growing production, while declines can indicate pricing pressure or lost business.
Commercial lines are clearly the engine of growth—sustained multi‑quarter expansion is driving the record NWP management highlighted—while assumed reinsurance has grown into a meaningful contributor that boosts top‑line but brings higher loss‑ratio volatility (management flagged pressure there). Personal lines are tiny and episodic, suggesting opportunistic or distribution-driven spikes rather than durable retail growth. Bottom line for investors: upside depends on continued commercial rate/retention and alternative distribution expansion; assumed‑reinsurance performance and E&S competition are the principal margin risks to watch.
The FlyUnited Fire Group (UFCS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $1.23B
- Dividend Yield
- 1.59%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 138.29K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 9.1
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.84
- Revenue Growth
- 11.41%
- EPS Growth
- 22.15%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 846
- Sector
- Financial
- Sector Strength
- 68
- Industry
- Insurance - Property & Casualty
United Fire Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Headquartered in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS) operates throughout the United States, specializing in property and casualty insurance solutions for both personal and commercial clients. The company's diverse portfolio includes co...
How the Company Makes Money
UFG primarily makes money through (1) underwriting income and (2) investment income. Underwriting income comes from collecting insurance premiums and managing the combined cost of claims paid to policyholders and operating expenses (including commiss...
United Fire Group Earnings Call Summary
The call was predominantly positive. UFG reported strong underwriting results, 13% net written premium growth, record nine-month earnings, a 14% return on equity, favorable catastrophe performance, growing investment income, and improving year-to-date expense efficiency. These strengths outweighed moderating pricing, increased competition, slight specialty premium declines, a modest year-over-year increase in the underlying loss ratio, and higher unrealized investment losses.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Management said it remains comfortable with its pace of growth in the current environment and feels good about growth prospects “as long as the market remains rational”; net written premium increased 13% in the third quarter, the average renewal rate change was 2.0%, and umbrella rates remained in the upper single digits. As the company grows “at around 10% rate,” it thinks the expense ratio can come down “half a point or so,” while the year-to-date catastrophe loss ratio of 2.9 percentage points was “trending below our full year estimate of 5.0%.”
United Fire Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Fundamentals are solid and improving: revenue growth accelerated into TTM, margins swung from 2023 losses to ~9.1% TTM net margin and ~12.3% TTM operating margin, leverage is very low (debt-to-equity reported at 0.0 TTM), and recent cash conversion is strong (FCF ~0.98–0.99x net income in 2025/TTM). The main constraint on a higher score is cyclical/volatile history (negative margins in 2023; negative OCF/FCF in 2022).
Income Statement
78PositiveBalance Sheet
86Very PositiveCash Flow
74Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.51B | 1.39B | 1.25B | 1.10B | 988.22M | 1.06B |
| Gross Profit | 1.11B | 622.01M | 225.92M | 83.93M | 137.84M | 200.91M |
| EBITDA | 194.27M | 169.97M | 95.22M | -25.95M | 22.93M | 106.60M |
| Net Income | 136.86M | 118.19M | 61.96M | -29.70M | 15.03M | 80.59M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.08B | 3.84B | 3.49B | 3.14B | 2.88B | 3.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 150.74M | 1.27B | 1.13B | 102.15M | 96.92M | 132.38M |
| Total Debt | 146.43M | 146.20M | 117.06M | 50.00M | 50.00M | 50.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.14B | 2.90B | 2.71B | 2.41B | 2.14B | 2.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 938.89M | 941.17M | 781.53M | 733.75M | 740.11M | 879.12M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 308.50M | 263.30M | 328.43M | 160.85M | -3.39M | 15.94M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 311.76M | 269.74M | 340.30M | 171.74M | -1.25M | 29.92M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -372.17M | -325.96M | -292.49M | -149.89M | -19.17M | 31.73M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -22.59M | 11.60M | 51.09M | -16.45M | -15.03M | -17.49M |
United Fire Group Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UFCS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 47.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.38, below the 50-day MA of 54.80, and above the 200-day MA of 46.78, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.29 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.53 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UFCS.
United Fire Group Risk Analysis
United Fire Group disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. United Fire Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksUnited Fire Group Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
THG83Outperform
SIGI78Outperform
DGICA77Outperform
SAFT75.85Outperform- UFCS71Outperform
KMPR59Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THG | 83Outperform | $8.35B | 11.45 | 21.03% | 1.56% | 5.04% | 21.26% |
| SIGI | 78Outperform | $5.87B | 11.92 | 14.29% | 1.73% | 4.50% | 28.39% |
| DGICA | 77Outperform | $741.93M | 9.81 | 10.57% | 4.06% | -3.37% | -22.70% |
| SAFT | 76Outperform | $1.53B | 21.59 | 8.08% | 3.53% | 4.62% | -18.49% |
| UFCS | 71Outperform | $1.23B | 9.06 | 14.38% | 1.59% | 11.41% | 22.15% |
| Sector * | 68Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
| KMPR | 59Neutral | $1.97B | -3.97 | -19.33% | 3.83% | -3.92% | -256.50% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFCS | United Fire Group | 47.73 | 12.11 | 34.01% | |
| DGICA | Donegal | 18.73 | 0.07 | 0.36% | |
| SAFT | Safety Insurance | 104.27 | 30.63 | 41.60% | |
| SIGI | Selective Insurance | 99.44 | 22.42 | 29.11% | |
| THG | The Hanover Insurance | 242.90 | 64.94 | 36.50% | |
| KMPR | Kemper Corp | 33.39 | -1.98 | -5.59% |
United Fire Group Corporate Events
United Fire Group Schedules Q3 2026 Earnings Release
NeutralOn October 21, 2026, United Fire Group, Inc. announced plans to release its third quarter 2026 earnings results after the market closes on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Management will discuss the results on an earnings conference call scheduled for Wed...
United Fire Group appoints seasoned independent board director
PositiveOn August 21, 2026, United Fire Group’s board appointed veteran insurance executive Teresa “Terri” Brown as an independent Class C director, with immediate service on the risk management and audit committees. Her more than 35 years...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2026