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American Coastal Insurance
(NASDAQ:ACIC)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$10.00
▲(6.04% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/03/26
ACIC’s score is supported by strong current profitability and an attractive low P/E, plus reaffirmed earnings guidance and active capital actions. Offsetting these positives are inconsistent cash flow (TTM back to outflows), a technically weak price trend below major moving averages, and near-term top-line/margin pressure (revenue guidance cut, premiums down) alongside added execution risk from the COO/CIO departure.
Positive Factors
Strong underwriting profitability
A 68.7% underlying combined ratio indicates that pricing, risk selection, and claims performance are currently producing strong underwriting economics. This supports recurring profitability and gives ACIC a durable base from which to manage catastrophe exposure and reinvest in growth.
Negative Factors
Inconsistent cash generation
The shift from strong cash generation to approximately $31 million of TTM operating and free cash outflow shows that accounting profitability has not translated consistently into cash. Unpredictable conversion can constrain capital allocation and resilience through the insurance cycle.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong underwriting profitability
A 68.7% underlying combined ratio indicates that pricing, risk selection, and claims performance are currently producing strong underwriting economics. This supports recurring profitability and gives ACIC a durable base from which to manage catastrophe exposure and reinvest in growth.
Read all positive factors
American Coastal Insurance (ACIC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$473.98M
Dividend Yield6.59%
Average Volume (3M)250.39K
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.7
Beta (1Y)0.52
Revenue Growth3.29%
EPS Growth21.74%
CountryUS
Employees68
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.08
Shares Outstanding48,464,046
10 Day Avg. Volume262,226
30 Day Avg. Volume250,394
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.15
Price to Book (P/B)1.93
Price to Sales (P/S)1.83
P/FCF Ratio8.64
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.48
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.12
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.02
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.73
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.00Price Target Upside37.86% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.98
Revenue Forecast (FY)$533.39M
American Coastal Insurance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
American Coastal Insurance Corporation, through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the commercial and personal property and casualty insurance business in the United States. The company provides structure, content, and liability coverage for s...
How the Company Makes Money
ACIC primarily makes money through (1) underwriting income and (2) investment income on its invested assets (commonly referred to as the insurance “float”). Underwriting income is earned when the premiums collected for insurance policies exceed to...
American Coastal Insurance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: the company remains profitable with healthy underlying underwriting metrics (68.7% underlying combined ratio), strong quarterly net income ($21.9M) and a high ROE (26.6%), improved book value and an active capital return program. However, soft market dynamics are pressuring premiums (GWP down ~5%), reported combined ratio widened to 74.3% (up 13.7 points), core income declined, revenue guidance was trimmed, and certain strategic growth initiatives (E&S cadence and multifamily) are behind expectations or constrained by rating/fronter issues. Management has taken proactive steps (reinsurance retention buy-down, buybacks, planned debt reduction) to preserve earnings quality and capital returns, but near-term top-line and margin pressures persist.Positive Updates
Positive Net Income and Core Earnings
Reported net income of $21.9 million for Q2 2026; core income of $16.5 million, demonstrating ongoing profitability despite a soft market (core income decreased $10.3 million year-over-year).
Negative Updates
Decline in Gross Written Premiums
Gross written premiums decreased roughly 5.0%–5.3% year-over-year as the pricing environment softened and average premium declined.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Positive Net Income and Core Earnings
Reported net income of $21.9 million for Q2 2026; core income of $16.5 million, demonstrating ongoing profitability despite a soft market (core income decreased $10.3 million year-over-year).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance for the year was largely unchanged on earnings but narrowed on top line: management reaffirmed full‑year earnings before tax of $85 million to $100 million (inclusive of expected net annual catastrophe losses) while lowering total revenue guidance to $300 million–$320 million; they also emphasized the company should remain profitable even with three full hurricane retentions, though actual EBT could be higher or lower depending on catastrophe frequency/severity. To reduce hurricane risk they bought down the first‑event retention from $49.0 million to $23.5 million (effective Aug. 1) at a cost of about $8.4 million (≈$4.0 million ceded Aug–Dec, remainder ceded Jan–May), with second/third event retentions unchanged at $25.0 million and $2.0 million; management expects rate/deductible/ acquisition cost pressure into 2027 partially offset by lower reinsurance costs. Quarterly and balance‑sheet metrics supporting the outlook included Q2 net income $21.9 million and core income $16.5 million, a ROE of 26.6%, reported combined ratio 74.3% (underlying combined ratio 68.7% vs. 62.2% prior year), gross written premiums down ~5–5.3% YoY, policies and TIV up ~3–4% YoY, Q2 account retention ~85%, cash & investments +$2.3 million, shareholders’ equity $340.8 million (↑$23.2 million, book value $7.21, +10.7% YTD), Q2 buybacks nearly 1.4 million shares (YTD >1.8 million) with buyback authority increased to ~$30.6 million, and a plan to reduce long‑term debt from $150 million to $75 million targeting ≤20% debt‑to‑capital.American Coastal Insurance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 330.38M | 335.44M | 296.66M | 263.68M | 220.78M | 228.69M |
| Gross Profit | 231.44M | 289.40M | 156.35M | 141.56M | 43.68M | 46.44M |
| EBITDA | 147.98M | 160.12M | 122.52M | 117.58M | 34.48M | 10.65M |
| Net Income | 100.20M | 106.84M | 75.72M | 309.91M | -469.86M | -57.92M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.24B | 1.07B | 1.22B | 1.06B | 2.84B | 2.70B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 328.04M | 311.81M | 285.04M | 334.46M | 606.36M | 875.63M |
| Total Debt | 152.54M | 152.49M | 152.34M | 149.46M | 150.04M | 158.50M |
| Total Liabilities | 903.01M | 755.17M | 980.45M | 891.62M | 3.02B | 2.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 340.79M | 317.56M | 235.66M | 168.76M | -180.18M | 312.41M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -31.04M | 70.87M | 243.49M | -136.20M | -176.16M | -300.66M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -30.61M | 71.03M | 243.51M | -136.00M | -173.11M | -295.39M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.49M | 620.00K | -179.21M | -2.54M | 236.84M | 251.38M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -57.90M | -1.08M | -13.84M | 26.77M | -25.39M | -12.21M |
American Coastal Insurance Technical Analysis
Neutral
9.43
Price Trends
9.56
Positive
10.12
Negative
10.72
Negative
Market Momentum
0.03
Negative
61.66
Neutral
90.60
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ACIC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.30, below the 50-day MA of 9.56, and below the 200-day MA of 10.72, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.60 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ACIC.
American Coastal Insurance Risk Analysis
American Coastal Insurance disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American Coastal Insurance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
American Coastal Insurance Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
87 Outperform | $1.04B | 4.95 | 42.41% | 6.76% | 1.45% | 102.69% | |
81 Outperform | $1.28B | 5.80 | 38.78% | 1.68% | 3.96% | 234.26% | |
81 Outperform | $524.56M | 5.95 | 25.95% | 5.32% | ― | ― | |
80 Outperform | $2.38B | 7.40 | 30.79% | 0.83% | 22.83% | 86.58% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
61 Neutral | $473.98M | 4.70 | 30.43% | 6.59% | 3.29% | 21.74% | |
48 Neutral | $31.02M | -0.80 | -72.72% | ― | -48.50% | -159.93% |
* Financial Sector Average
ACIC
American Coastal Insurance
9.78
-1.50
-13.28%
UVE
Universal Insurance Holdings
45.85
17.32
60.72%
HRTG
Heritage Insurance Holdings
34.83
9.66
38.38%
PRHI
Presurance Holdings
8.28
-2.57
-23.68%
HCI
HCI Group
191.69
5.41
2.91%
AII
American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc.
26.77
4.81
21.93%
American Coastal Insurance Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
American Coastal Insurance announces key executive leadership change
Negative
Oct 2, 2026
American Coastal Insurance Corporation disclosed that Christopher Griffith resigned as Chief Operating Officer and Chief Information Officer, effective October 1, 2026. The leadership change, announced on October 2, 2026, removes a key executive o...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
American Coastal Insurance Reports Weaker Q2 2026 Results
Negative
Aug 5, 2026
American Coastal Insurance Corporation reported second-quarter 2026 results on August 5, 2026, showing year-over-year declines in gross premiums written, total revenue and consolidated net income, with net income falling 17.2% to $21.9 million and...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.