Tesla (TSLA) AI Stock Analysis

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Tesla

(NASDAQ:TSLA)

74Outperform

Tesla's overall score reflects its strong financial foundation and positive future outlook in autonomous technology and energy storage. However, high valuation metrics and operational challenges such as delivery declines and tariff impacts temper the score. While technical indicators suggest potential momentum, the stock's high P/E ratio signifies reliance on future growth.

Positive Factors

AI and technology

Tesla's relative advantages are highlighted as a 'Top Pick' due to the integration of AI in manufacturing.

Legal outcomes

Tesla shareholders benefit from the settlement of the excessive compensation lawsuit during the quarter.

Trade relations

A more cooperative and open trading relationship between the US and China can help accelerate the next phase for Tesla beyond the sale of human-operated electric vehicles.

Negative Factors

Earnings expectations

Tesla has missed earnings expectations in 8 of the past 9 quarters, highlighting ongoing challenges in meeting financial targets.

Market competition

The transition from discounting mainly inventory vehicles to discounting both inventory vehicles and newer models suggests potential pricing challenges for Tesla.

Sales performance

TSLA deliveries are trending down 18% y/y and 49% m/m.

Tesla (TSLA) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$1.02T

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)129.68M

Price to Earnings (P/E)183.7

Beta (1Y)1.94

Revenue Growth1.03%

EPS Growth-53.71%

CountryUS

Employees125,665

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength73

IndustryAuto - Manufacturers

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.27

Shares Outstanding3,216,517,000

10 Day Avg. Volume103,795,239

30 Day Avg. Volume129,675,384

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-13.29

Price to Book (P/B)12.28

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio135.18

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$275.68

Price Target Upside-20.71% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering37

Tesla Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Automotive, and Energy Generation and Storage. The Automotive segment offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty after-sales vehicle, used vehicles, retail merchandise, and vehicle insurance services. This segment also provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; purchase financing and leasing services; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. The Energy Generation and Storage segment engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners; and provision of service and repairs to its energy product customers, including under warranty, as well as various financing options to its solar customers. The company was formerly known as Tesla Motors, Inc. and changed its name to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

How the Company Makes MoneyTesla generates revenue primarily through the sale of electric vehicles. The bulk of its revenue comes from the production and sale of its various car models, including the Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y. In addition to automotive sales, Tesla also earns money from its energy generation and storage segment, which includes the sale of energy products like the Powerwall, Powerpack, and Solar Roof. Another significant revenue stream comes from regulatory credits, which Tesla earns by selling credits to other automakers who need them to comply with environmental regulations. Tesla also offers services and other revenues, including vehicle maintenance, insurance products, and sales of used vehicles. Partnerships with suppliers and advancements in its autonomous driving technology also contribute to Tesla's earnings, along with its Supercharger network, which provides charging services to Tesla owners.

Tesla Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Total Vehicles Delivered

Total Vehicles Delivered
Summarizes all vehicles delivered over a period, providing a comprehensive view of sales volume and market reach.

Chart InsightsTesla's vehicle deliveries continue to grow, with a notable dip in Q1 2025 due to production challenges from new model transitions. Despite this, the company achieved record deliveries in 2024, driven by the Model Y's global success. The earnings call highlights Tesla's focus on autonomy and energy storage as key growth areas, with significant investments in AI and new model introductions planned for 2025. However, short-term production disruptions and regulatory uncertainties pose risks to margins and profitability.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Tesla Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tesla demonstrates a strong financial position with healthy profit margins, robust balance sheet, and positive cash flow. Despite a slight decline in revenue growth, the company maintains operational efficiency and financial stability. The income statement score is 85, balance sheet score is 88, and cash flow score is 80.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Tesla's income statement demonstrates strong financial performance with notable gross and net profit margins. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is approximately 17.66%, and the net profit margin is around 6.70%, which are healthy figures for the auto-manufacturing industry. However, the revenue growth rate from 2024 to 2025 showed a minor decline of 2.01%, which slightly dampens the overall score. Despite this, the company maintains solid EBIT and EBITDA margins at 6.58% and 14.58% respectively, indicating efficient operational management.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

Tesla's balance sheet is robust, characterized by a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.10 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), reflecting strong financial leverage management. The equity ratio stands at 59.65%, indicating a healthy proportion of equity financing. The return on equity (ROE) is at a solid 8.59%, showcasing the company's ability to generate profit from shareholders' equity. These metrics collectively point to a stable financial position with managed leverage and substantial equity.

Cash Flow

Positive

Tesla's cash flow statement presents a positive outlook with a notable improvement in free cash flow from 2024 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), showing a growth rate of 89.21%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.63, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio stands at 1.06, suggesting room for improvement in free cash flow generation relative to profitability. Overall, the cash flow position is strong, but with potential to enhance free cash flow.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
95.72B	97.69B	96.77B	81.46B	53.82B	31.54B
	Gross Profit
16.91B	17.45B	17.66B	20.85B	13.61B	6.63B
	EBIT
6.30B	7.08B	8.89B	13.66B	6.52B	1.99B
	EBITDA
13.96B	14.71B	14.80B	17.66B	9.63B	4.22B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
6.41B	7.13B	15.00B	12.58B	5.52B	721.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
37.00B	36.56B	29.09B	22.18B	17.71B	19.38B
	Total Assets
125.11B	122.07B	106.62B	82.34B	62.13B	52.15B
	Total Debt
7.53B	13.62B	9.57B	5.75B	8.87B	13.28B
	Net Debt
-8.82B	-2.52B	-6.83B	-10.51B	-8.70B	-6.11B
	Total Liabilities
49.69B	48.39B	43.01B	36.44B	30.55B	28.47B
	Stockholders Equity
74.65B	72.91B	62.63B	44.70B	30.19B	22.23B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
6.78B	3.58B	4.36B	7.55B	3.48B	2.70B
	Operating Cash Flow
16.84B	14.92B	13.26B	14.72B	11.50B	5.94B
	Investing Cash Flow
-15.35B	-18.79B	-15.58B	-11.97B	-7.87B	-3.13B
	Financing Cash Flow
3.33B	3.85B	2.59B	-3.53B	-5.20B	9.97B

Tesla Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price347.68

Price Trends

50DMA

263.96

Positive

100DMA

322.76

Positive

200DMA

294.79

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

16.15

Negative

RSI

72.78

Negative

STOCH

94.78

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSLA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 347.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 279.32, above the 50-day MA of 263.96, and above the 200-day MA of 294.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 16.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.78 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.78 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSLA.

Tesla Risk Analysis

Tesla disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tesla reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Tesla Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
F	77 Outperform	$42.15B	8.49	11.47%	7.08%	3.03%	28.54%
LI	76 Outperform	$28.60B	26.64	12.29%	―	15.50%	-32.48%
TM	75 Outperform	$244.07B	8.15	13.36%	2.51%	-0.59%	7.56%
HMC	74 Outperform	$49.57B	8.42	6.54%	4.08%	4.37%	6.93%
TSLA	74 Outperform	$1.02T	183.72	9.16%	―	1.03%	-53.71%
GM	71 Outperform	$48.51B	7.27	8.88%	0.95%	7.76%	-14.17%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$7.00B	11.55	3.07%	3.89%	2.60%	-21.53%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TSLA

Tesla

347.68

172.84

98.86%

Ford Motor

10.65

-0.83

-7.23%

General Motors

50.31

4.89

10.77%

HMC

Honda Motor Company

29.44

-2.10

-6.66%

Toyota Motor

187.00

-28.63

-13.28%

Li Auto

28.72

3.53

14.01%

Tesla Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 46.10%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

Tesla's Q1 earnings call presented several positive developments, including record profits in energy storage and advancements in autonomous technology. However, challenges such as delivery declines, tariff impacts, and supply chain constraints for the Optimus project offset these achievements.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Gross Profit in Energy Storage

Tesla's energy storage business achieved a record gross profit in Q1, despite a sequential decline in deployments.

Advancements in Autonomous Technology

Tesla plans to launch fully autonomous rides in Austin starting in June, with a large-scale rollout expected by the middle of next year.

Successful Factory Upgrade

Tesla successfully updated its factories globally for the Model Y, the best-selling car in the world, all within the first quarter.

High Interest and Demand

Despite challenges, Tesla had a record number of test drives globally in Q1, with the Model Y remaining the best-selling car in California.

Localized Supply Chains

Tesla has established localized supply chains in North America, Europe, and China, reducing tariff impact and logistics risks.

Negative Updates

Decline in Vehicle Deliveries

There was a decline in vehicle deliveries in Q1 due to factory updates and vandalism/hostility towards the brand.

Tariff and Regulatory Challenges

Tesla faces challenges due to new tariffs affecting profitability, particularly in the energy business, and the need for export licenses for rare earth magnets.

Brand Image Concerns

Negative articles and hostility have impacted Tesla's brand image, although demand remains strong.

Supply Chain Constraints for Optimus

The Optimus robot program is affected by supply chain issues, particularly due to China's export requirements for rare earth magnets.

Bitcoin Loss Impact

Tesla reported a $472 million drop due to a Bitcoin mark-to-market loss in Q1.

Company Guidance

During the Tesla Q1 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk and the executive team provided several forward-looking statements and metrics regarding the company's outlook. Musk emphasized the importance of Tesla's focus on large-scale autonomous cars and humanoid robots, projecting a significant impact on Tesla's valuation. He mentioned that the company expects to begin selling fully autonomous rides in Austin by June 2025, with large-scale autonomy expected to materially affect the bottom line by the second half of 2026. Musk outlined the company's efforts to localize supply chains across North America, Europe, and China, aiming to mitigate tariff impacts and enhance logistical efficiency. Vaibhav Taneja highlighted Tesla's record gross profit in the energy storage business during Q1, amid challenges like vehicle delivery declines and brand image issues. Despite these headwinds, Tesla maintained its status as California's best-selling car and reported a record number of global test drives in Q1. The company plans to continue focusing on affordable models and anticipates starting production of new models by June 2025. Tesla's efforts to mitigate risks include increasing regional content in high-volume vehicle programs, with over 85% of North American content for such vehicles.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.