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Turning Point Brands
(NYSE:TPB)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$69.00
▼(-19.58% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/21/26
The score is primarily supported by strong underlying margins, improving revenue momentum, and a much healthier leverage profile, plus constructive earnings-call guidance around Modern Oral expansion. The main offsets are weaker TTM cash conversion and mixed-to-weak technicals (below key longer-term moving averages), with valuation also somewhat demanding at ~27x earnings.
Positive Factors
Modern Oral Growth
Rapid Modern Oral growth is shifting TPB toward a category with expanding consumer adoption and increasing revenue contribution. The momentum, supported by broader retail distribution and direct-to-consumer channels, can strengthen scale, brand visibility, and future earnings power over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Conversion
Cash generation is currently weak relative to reported earnings, which may indicate working-capital or timing pressure. If this persists, TPB could have less internally generated funding for growth initiatives and reduced flexibility to absorb operating volatility or regulatory spending.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Modern Oral Growth
Rapid Modern Oral growth is shifting TPB toward a category with expanding consumer adoption and increasing revenue contribution. The momentum, supported by broader retail distribution and direct-to-consumer channels, can strengthen scale, brand visibility, and future earnings power over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Turning Point Brands (TPB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.28B
Dividend Yield0.49%
Average Volume (3M)471.80K
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.9
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue Growth20.10%
EPS Growth-3.19%
CountryUS
Employees484
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryTobacco
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.38
Shares Outstanding20,048,922
10 Day Avg. Volume403,956
30 Day Avg. Volume471,795
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.81
Price to Book (P/B)5.60
Price to Sales (P/S)4.29
P/FCF Ratio45.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.38
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.92
Enterprise Value/Ebitda17.40
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$114.20Price Target Upside33.10% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$564.69M
Turning Point Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Turning Point Brands, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, is engaged in the creation, promotion, and distribution of a diverse array of branded consumer products. Its operations are structured into three distinct divisions: Zig-Zag Products...
How the Company Makes Money
TPB makes money by selling branded tobacco and nicotine products and related accessories into retail and wholesale distribution. The company’s core revenue model is product sales (shipments) to distributors and retailers, with earnings driven by a...
Turning Point Brands Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly optimistic, led by substantial Modern Oral growth, raised Modern Oral revenue guidance, expanding retail distribution, positive ALP traction, and continued investment in long-term brand and manufacturing capabilities. These positives outweighed lower adjusted EBITDA, higher SG&A, Zig-Zag softness, lower heritage revenue, reduced Stoker's gross margin, and PMTA timing uncertainty.Positive Updates
Strong Modern Oral Growth
Modern Oral gross sales increased 149% year-over-year and 26% sequentially, while net sales increased 128% year-over-year and 32% sequentially. Growth was driven by expanded retail distribution for FRE and ALP and direct-to-consumer platforms.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Decline
Adjusted EBITDA declined 50% year-over-year to $15 million, representing an 11% margin. The decline was attributed to increased sales and marketing investment and softness in Zig-Zag, partially offset by accelerated Modern Oral growth.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Modern Oral Growth
Modern Oral gross sales increased 149% year-over-year and 26% sequentially, while net sales increased 128% year-over-year and 32% sequentially. Growth was driven by expanded retail distribution for FRE and ALP and direct-to-consumer platforms.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance calls for chain store count to increase 70% year-over-year by the end of 2026, sales force growth of approximately 50% this year, and, subject to regulatory approval, U.S. manufacturing to launch by the end of the year; once fully scaled, the company believes it can achieve gross margins of approximately 70%. Full year 2026 Modern Oral gross sales guidance is $330 million-$350 million, up from $280 million-$300 million, and net sales guidance is $260 million-$270 million, up from $210 million-$225 million; full-year EBITDA guidance remains $70 million-$90 million, inclusive of increased nicotine pouch investments, budgeted 2026 CapEx remains $4 million-$5 million, excluding projects related to Modern Oral, and the company expects to spend an additional $3 million-$5 million in 2026 in support of its PMTA applications.Turning Point Brands Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 507.23M | 463.06M | 360.66M | 325.06M | 321.23M | 445.47M |
| Gross Profit | 300.08M | 264.31M | 201.56M | 182.94M | 177.83M | 217.83M |
| EBITDA | 102.10M | 115.94M | 94.05M | 88.64M | 64.97M | 98.59M |
| Net Income | 44.55M | 58.16M | 39.81M | 38.46M | 11.64M | 52.06M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 855.20M | 763.75M | 493.35M | 569.36M | 572.11M | 601.56M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 268.31M | 222.76M | 46.16M | 117.89M | 106.40M | 128.32M |
| Total Debt | 310.67M | 308.97M | 261.27M | 377.99M | 420.45M | 430.48M |
| Total Liabilities | 401.17M | 391.77M | 302.97M | 417.35M | 458.73M | 467.84M |
| Stockholders Equity | 430.10M | 354.30M | 187.98M | 150.98M | 111.64M | 131.40M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 19.63M | 43.84M | 62.44M | 61.17M | 22.59M | 62.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 32.21M | 57.37M | 67.06M | 66.88M | 30.27M | 68.22M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -34.64M | -31.67M | -10.51M | -5.91M | -18.79M | -58.84M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 160.72M | 148.27M | -128.15M | -49.51M | -43.30M | 57.07M |
Turning Point Brands Technical Analysis
Negative
85.80
Price Trends
69.29
Negative
75.96
Negative
87.56
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.84
Negative
51.98
Neutral
78.68
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TPB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 85.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 59.57, above the 50-day MA of 69.29, and below the 200-day MA of 87.56, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TPB.
Turning Point Brands Risk Analysis
Turning Point Brands disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Turning Point Brands reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Turning Point Brands Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $310.90B | 29.12 | -119.68% | 3.01% | 7.91% | 24.06% | |
71 Outperform | $1.97B | 13.40 | 6.20% | 6.83% | 59.23% | 39.66% | |
69 Neutral | $124.08B | 15.68 | -265.17% | 5.77% | 1.01% | -8.27% | |
69 Neutral | $127.43B | 15.18 | 13.38% | 5.59% | 4.47% | 117.22% | |
65 Neutral | $1.28B | 26.89 | 11.93% | 0.49% | 20.10% | -3.19% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
41 Neutral | $141.16K | >-0.01 | -20.47% | ― | -27.44% | 99.95% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
TPB
Turning Point Brands
63.99
-24.54
-27.72%
MO
Altria Group
74.31
14.61
24.47%
BTI
British American Tobacco
59.48
10.32
20.98%
PM
Philip Morris
199.47
51.50
34.80%
XXII
22nd Century
0.20
-455.80
-99.96%
RLX
RLX Technology
1.61
-0.71
-30.54%
Turning Point Brands Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Turning Point Brands Announces CEO Resignation and Successor
Neutral
Sep 21, 2026
On September 21, 2026, Turning Point Brands announced that President and CEO Graham Purdy resigned, effective September 30, 2026, for personal reasons unrelated to any dispute with the company or its board. The board appointed long-time director a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.