Turning Point Brands Inc (TPB)
NYSE:TPB
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Turning Point Brands
(NYSE:TPB)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$87.00
▲(6.84% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
TPB scores as a moderate-risk opportunity: strong margins and improving leverage are outweighed by sharply weaker recent cash generation, which is the main constraint on the score. Offsetting that, the earnings call featured a major guidance raise and strong Modern Oral growth, while technicals are supportive in the near term. Valuation remains a headwind with a ~29.9 P/E and minimal dividend yield.
Positive Factors
High and durable margins
Consistent gross margins near the mid-50s provide a durable earnings cushion versus volume swings. High-margin product mix (notably Modern Oral at materially higher margins) supports long-term operating profitability and the ability to absorb promotional or trade costs while still funding growth investments.
Negative Factors
Sharp deterioration in cash generation
Cash conversion has weakened materially, with operating cash covering only a fraction of reported earnings. This reduces the firm's ability to fund marketing, working capital, and manufacturing investments internally, increasing reliance on existing liquidity or financing and elevating execution risk over the next several months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High and durable margins
Consistent gross margins near the mid-50s provide a durable earnings cushion versus volume swings. High-margin product mix (notably Modern Oral at materially higher margins) supports long-term operating profitability and the ability to absorb promotional or trade costs while still funding growth investments.
Read all positive factors
Turning Point Brands (TPB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.60B
Dividend Yield0.28%
Average Volume (3M)466.64K
Price to Earnings (P/E)29.9
Beta (1Y)0.66
Revenue Growth16.10%
EPS Growth26.07%
CountryUS
Employees310
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryTobacco
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.01
Shares Outstanding19,367,535
10 Day Avg. Volume365,410
30 Day Avg. Volume466,641
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.81
Price to Book (P/B)5.60
Price to Sales (P/S)4.29
P/FCF Ratio45.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.65
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.54
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$127.50Price Target Upside56.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)2.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)$499.33M
Turning Point Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Turning Point Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes branded consumer products. The company operates through three segments: Zig-Zag Products, Stoker's Products, and NewGen Products. The Zig-Zag Produc...
How the Company Makes Money
TPB makes money primarily by selling consumer tobacco and nicotine products to wholesale and retail customers, generating revenue from the volume of products shipped and the prices it is able to realize for its brands. Its core revenue streams are...
Turning Point Brands Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights substantial and accelerating growth in the Modern Oral category (167% gross, 133% net YoY), a raised full‑year Modern Oral guidance, strong consolidated revenue and adjusted EBITDA that exceeded midpoint guidance, meaningful retail chain wins and considerable investment in commercial infrastructure and manufacturing to scale the business. Offsetting these positives are near‑term financial pressures: negative Q1 free cash flow (-$27.4M), higher SG&A and marketing spend, Zig‑Zag sales weakness (-22%), tariff‑driven margin pressure in legacy Stoker's, regulatory (PMTA) timing uncertainty and a wide EBITDA guidance range tied to execution and discretionary spend. On balance, management is prioritizing aggressive, front‑loaded investments to capture share in a nascent category and has the cash and operational plan to support that pivot, while acknowledging short‑term profitability and cash‑flow tradeoffs.Positive Updates
Modern Oral Rapid Growth
Modern Oral gross sales grew 167% year-over-year to $69M and net sales grew 133% year-over-year to $52M; Modern Oral accounted for 42% of consolidated net sales (up from 21% in Q1 2025).
Negative Updates
Zig‑Zag Sales Decline
Zig‑Zag net sales declined 22% year‑over‑year to $36.7M and gross profit decreased 18% to $20.9M, reflecting weaker top‑line performance in that segment.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Modern Oral Rapid Growth
Modern Oral gross sales grew 167% year-over-year to $69M and net sales grew 133% year-over-year to $52M; Modern Oral accounted for 42% of consolidated net sales (up from 21% in Q1 2025).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Turning Point raised 2026 Modern Oral guidance to gross sales of $280–$300M (from $220–$240M) and net sales of $210–$225M (from $180–$190M), implying ~83.7% gross revenue growth at the midpoint, and introduced full‑year EBITDA guidance of $70–$90M with an expected effective tax rate of 23–26%; the company plans $80–$105M in sales & marketing spend, budgeted CapEx of $4–$5M (plus $3–$5M for PMTA work), expects chain store count to rise ~70% year‑over‑year by end‑2026, and believes Modern Oral margins could approach 70% at scale by the end of the decade. In Q1 consolidated sales were $124.3M, gross profit $68.3M (55% gross margin), adjusted EBITDA was $25.9M (20.8% margin), Modern Oral Q1 net sales were $52M (gross $69M, 42% of consolidated net sales), free cash flow was -$27.4M, ending cash was $192.4M, and management expects to be approximately cash‑flow breakeven for the remainder of 2026.Turning Point Brands Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 480.90M | 463.06M | 360.66M | 325.06M | 321.23M | 445.47M |
| Gross Profit | 273.00M | 264.31M | 201.56M | 182.94M | 177.83M | 217.83M |
| EBITDA | 106.22M | 115.94M | 94.05M | 88.64M | 82.63M | 98.59M |
| Net Income | 55.44M | 58.16M | 39.81M | 38.46M | 11.64M | 52.06M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 772.10M | 763.75M | 493.35M | 569.36M | 572.11M | 601.56M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 192.44M | 222.76M | 46.16M | 117.89M | 106.40M | 128.32M |
| Total Debt | 304.93M | 308.97M | 261.27M | 377.99M | 420.45M | 430.48M |
| Total Liabilities | 386.61M | 391.77M | 302.97M | 417.35M | 458.73M | 467.84M |
| Stockholders Equity | 365.76M | 354.30M | 187.98M | 150.98M | 111.64M | 131.40M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.01M | 43.84M | 62.44M | 61.17M | 22.59M | 62.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 20.49M | 57.37M | 67.06M | 66.88M | 30.27M | 68.22M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -34.29M | -31.67M | -10.51M | -5.91M | -18.79M | -58.84M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 107.06M | 148.27M | -128.15M | -49.51M | -43.30M | 57.07M |
Turning Point Brands Technical Analysis
Negative
81.43
Price Trends
83.47
Positive
99.20
Negative
98.88
Negative
Market Momentum
0.06
Positive
49.27
Neutral
25.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TPB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 81.43 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 88.78, below the 50-day MA of 83.47, and below the 200-day MA of 98.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TPB.
Turning Point Brands Risk Analysis
Turning Point Brands disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Turning Point Brands reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Turning Point Brands Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $2.52B | 17.31 | 6.14% | 0.35% | 66.52% | 56.14% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $1.60B | 29.89 | 17.29% | 0.28% | 16.10% | 26.07% | |
53 Neutral | $1.36B | 40.75 | 2.24% | 6.15% | -0.77% | -65.72% | |
49 Neutral | $99.87M | -2.70 | 0.84% | ― | -38.18% | -21.59% | |
46 Neutral | $813.48K | -0.05 | -247.42% | ― | -90.33% | 26.78% | |
44 Neutral | $2.14M | -0.07 | -133.50% | ― | -34.08% | 99.49% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
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Turning Point Brands
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Turning Point Brands Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Turning Point Brands Shifts Focus to Modern Oral Growth
Neutral
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, Turning Point Brands reported first-quarter 2026 results showing total net sales rose 16.8% year over year to $124.3 million, driven by a 133% surge in Modern Oral net sales to $52.0 million, which now represents 42% of company rev...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Turning Point Brands Shareholders Back Board, Auditor, Compensation
Positive
May 5, 2026
Turning Point Brands, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 4, 2026, where shareholders voted on director elections, auditor ratification and executive compensation. All director nominees received strong support, indicating continued...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.