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Altria Group
(NYSE:MO)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$73.00
▲(7.24% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/28/26
The score is driven primarily by strong operating profitability and cash generation, but meaningfully tempered by elevated balance-sheet risk (high debt and negative equity). Valuation and income appeal (high dividend yield with a moderate P/E) support the rating, while technicals are mixed with weak intermediate-term momentum. The latest earnings call added incremental support via improved guidance and strong margin performance, though secular volume declines and mix pressure remain key headwinds.
Positive Factors
Strong Profitability and Pricing Power
Very high operating margins and positive price realization show Altria can offset declining cigarette volumes through premium brands, pricing and cost control. This supports durable earnings resilience, although annual margin variability limits predictability.
Negative Factors
Highly Levered Balance Sheet
High debt combined with negative equity leaves a thin accounting capital cushion and limits financial flexibility. Although current cash generation supports obligations, any prolonged earnings or free-cash-flow decline could constrain investment and increase refinancing sensitivity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Profitability and Pricing Power
Very high operating margins and positive price realization show Altria can offset declining cigarette volumes through premium brands, pricing and cost control. This supports durable earnings resilience, although annual margin variability limits predictability.
Read all positive factors
Altria Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Smokeable Products Sticks Shipped
Indicates the volume of cigarette products distributed, reflecting consumer demand trends and market penetration for Altria's smokeable segment.
Indicates the volume of cigarette products distributed, reflecting consumer demand trends and market penetration for Altria's smokeable segment.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAltria Group (MO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$114.63B
Dividend Yield6.18%
Average Volume (3M)7.53M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.5
Beta (1Y)-0.20
Revenue Growth1.01%
EPS Growth-8.27%
CountryUS
Employees5,900
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryTobacco
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.74
Shares Outstanding1,669,743,900
10 Day Avg. Volume6,824,241
30 Day Avg. Volume7,527,329
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.38
Price to Book (P/B)-27.61
Price to Sales (P/S)4.80
P/FCF Ratio10.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$71.63Price Target Upside5.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)5.69
Revenue Forecast (FY)$20.55B
Altria Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Operating across the United States through its subsidiaries, Altria Group, Inc. is a prominent manufacturer and marketer of both combustible and oral tobacco items. Its portfolio features cigarettes, primarily under the iconic Marlboro brand, alon...
How the Company Makes Money
Altria makes money primarily by selling tobacco and nicotine products in the United States, with revenue recognized from shipments to wholesalers and retailers (net of discounts, promotions, and certain taxes where applicable). Its largest revenue...
Altria Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized solid financial performance and disciplined execution: EPS growth (Q2 +2.8%, H1 +4.9%), expanded smokeable margins, a narrowed full-year EPS range, substantial shareholder returns (~$3.9 billion YTD), ABI earnings growth (+21.5%), and strategic expansion of the smoke-free on! PLUS offering to ~120,000 stores. Offsetting items included a weaker Oral Tobacco quarter (adjusted OCI down 8% Q2), reported shipment declines affected by trade inventory timing, ongoing cigarette volume declines (adjusted ~-4.5% Q2) and continued consumer trade-down toward discount brands. Management highlighted favorable regulatory and enforcement developments that could benefit regulated smoke-free products over time. On balance, the positives around profitability, cash returns, regulatory tailwinds and product expansion were presented as outweighing near-term volume and segment-specific headwinds.Positive Updates
EPS Growth and Guidance Narrowing
Adjusted diluted EPS increased 2.8% to $1.48 in Q2 and 4.9% to $2.80 for the first half. Management raised the lower end of full-year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance to a range of $5.61 to $5.72 (growth of 3.5% to 5.5% vs. $5.42 in 2025) and narrowed guidance for the year.
Negative Updates
Oral Tobacco Segment Profitability and Volume Weakness
Oral Tobacco Products adjusted OCI decreased 8% in Q2 and 4.2% for the first half. Total segment reported shipment volume decreased 8.5% in Q2 and 6% for H1; when adjusted for trade inventory movements, estimated declines were ~2% in Q2 and ~5.5% for H1. Management cited difficult prior-year comps and strategic investments behind on! PLUS trial offers.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
EPS Growth and Guidance Narrowing
Adjusted diluted EPS increased 2.8% to $1.48 in Q2 and 4.9% to $2.80 for the first half. Management raised the lower end of full-year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance to a range of $5.61 to $5.72 (growth of 3.5% to 5.5% vs. $5.42 in 2025) and narrowed guidance for the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Altria said it raised the lower end of its 2026 guidance and now expects adjusted diluted EPS of $5.61–$5.72 (a 3.5%–5.5% increase versus a $5.42 2025 base). Management pointed to strong H1 performance—Q2 adjusted diluted EPS of $1.48 (up 2.8%) and H1 adjusted diluted EPS of $2.80 (up 4.9%)—and said it narrowed full‑year guidance accordingly; it also expects export volumes and related FET (duty drawback) benefits to be higher in H2 with a more balanced impact across Q3–Q4. The company reiterated its capital‑return discipline after returning nearly $3.9 billion in H1 (about $3.6B in dividends and $335M in repurchases, 5.3M shares bought year‑to‑date), with $665M remaining on the repurchase program (expiring year‑end), and a strong balance sheet (debt/EBITDA 1.9x versus an approximately 2.0x target).Altria Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
24
Negative
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 21.87B | 20.14B | 20.44B | 20.50B | 20.69B | 21.11B |
| Gross Profit | 15.52B | 14.54B | 14.37B | 14.28B | 14.25B | 13.99B |
| EBITDA | 11.75B | 10.83B | 15.07B | 12.35B | 8.74B | 5.26B |
| Net Income | 7.97B | 6.95B | 11.26B | 8.13B | 5.76B | 2.48B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 33.37B | 35.02B | 35.18B | 38.57B | 36.95B | 39.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.37B | 4.48B | 3.13B | 3.69B | 4.03B | 4.54B |
| Total Debt | 24.58B | 25.71B | 24.93B | 26.23B | 26.68B | 28.04B |
| Total Liabilities | 35.99B | 38.47B | 37.37B | 42.06B | 40.88B | 41.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | -2.67B | -3.50B | -2.24B | -3.54B | -3.97B | -1.61B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 8.30B | 9.07B | 8.61B | 9.09B | 8.05B | 8.24B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.64B | 9.29B | 8.75B | 9.29B | 8.26B | 8.40B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -477.00M | -341.00M | 2.17B | -1.28B | 782.00M | 1.21B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -10.44B | -7.62B | -11.49B | -8.37B | -9.54B | -10.03B |
Altria Group Technical Analysis
Positive
68.07
Price Trends
70.02
Negative
69.41
Negative
64.79
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.53
Negative
51.91
Neutral
84.33
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 68.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 66.84, below the 50-day MA of 70.02, and above the 200-day MA of 64.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.33 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MO.
Altria Group Risk Analysis
Altria Group disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Altria Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Altria Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $299.08B | 27.57 | -112.19% | 3.05% | 9.12% | 32.00% | |
70 Outperform | $2.23B | 15.37 | 6.20% | 4.93% | 59.23% | 39.66% | |
69 Neutral | $120.45B | 14.14 | 13.38% | 5.32% | 4.47% | 117.22% | |
66 Neutral | $114.63B | 14.48 | -265.17% | 5.81% | 1.01% | -8.27% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $1.68B | 35.26 | 11.93% | 0.41% | 20.10% | -3.19% | |
44 Neutral | $2.23M | -0.03 | -25.03% | ― | -27.44% | 99.95% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
MO
Altria Group
68.65
5.71
9.07%
BTI
British American Tobacco
56.13
2.36
4.40%
PM
Philip Morris
191.89
30.60
18.97%
XXII
22nd Century
3.13
-521.87
-99.40%
TPB
Turning Point Brands
83.93
-15.24
-15.36%
RLX
RLX Technology
1.83
-0.60
-24.57%
Altria Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Altria Group Adds Independent Director to Board
Positive
Aug 28, 2026
On August 27, 2026, Altria’s board expanded from 10 to 11 members and elected Steven W. Presley as an independent director, effective the same day. Presley, currently CEO of Refresco Benelux and a longtime Nestlé executive, was also app...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.