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Constellation Brands (STZ)
NYSE:STZ
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Constellation Brands (STZ) AI Stock Analysis

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STZ

Constellation Brands

(NYSE:STZ)

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Neutral 64 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$138.00
▲(6.02% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/25/26
STZ scores as moderately attractive: fundamentals are anchored by strong profitability and solid cash generation, and valuation (low P/E plus a ~3.16% dividend) is supportive. Offsetting these positives are weak technicals (below key moving averages with bearish momentum) and a guarded near-term outlook from the earnings call, including macro uncertainty, soft core brands, and expected margin pressure from higher marketing and SG&A.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Solid free cash flow conversion and strong operating cash flow indicate durable cash generation capacity. This supports dividends, buybacks and targeted reinvestment while providing a cushion to absorb cyclical pressure and fund brand building or debt reduction over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Weak revenue momentum
Material recent revenue decline highlights top‑line fragility driven by softer core brands and divestiture impacts. Prolonged negative sales growth undermines scale benefits, pressures operating leverage, and could reduce free cash flow and return on invested capital if recovery lags.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Solid free cash flow conversion and strong operating cash flow indicate durable cash generation capacity. This supports dividends, buybacks and targeted reinvestment while providing a cushion to absorb cyclical pressure and fund brand building or debt reduction over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors

Constellation Brands Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Operating Income by Segment
Chart Insights
Data provided by:The Fly

Constellation Brands (STZ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Constellation Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. The company offers beer under the Corona Extra, Corona Familiar...
How the Company Makes Money
Constellation Brands makes money primarily by selling beverage alcohol to wholesalers, retailers, and on-premise accounts, generating revenue from product shipments and related brand/marketing programs. The company’s largest earnings driver is its...

Constellation Brands Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 30, 2026
(Q1-2027)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a balanced view: management emphasized the underlying strength of the brand portfolio, early signs of demand reacceleration (notably June and World Cup-related occasions), margin benefits from fixed-cost absorption and cost savings, and strategic moves such as senior sales hiring and targeted innovation (Corona non-alc, RTD/Chelada). Offsetting this optimism were material near-term headwinds — volatile consumer spending driven by a sharp gas-price shock, continued softness in core brands (Modelo Especial and Corona Extra), sub-2% volume growth, expected SG&A and marketing-driven margin pressure in Q2/Q3, currency headwinds and regional/Hispanic consumer weakness. Given the mix of encouraging portfolio and margin elements versus meaningful macro and brand-specific challenges, the tone is cautiously constructive but guarded.
Positive Updates
Portfolio Strength and Management Confidence
New CEO highlighted enduring strength of core brands (Modelo, Corona, Pacifico, Kim Crawford, Mi CAMPO) and confidence in the company's ability to create demand and scale brands through consumer insights, commercial execution and disciplined investment.
Negative Updates
Volatile Consumer Backdrop and Fuel Shock
Quarter saw volatility — strong March then softer April/May as a massive spike in gas prices pressured consumer behavior. Gas prices rose over ~50% on average in the U.S. peak-to-trough (California ~40%, Illinois ~70%, New York/Florida/Texas >50%), which management ties to softened demand.
Read all updates
Q1-2027 Updates
Negative
Portfolio Strength and Management Confidence
New CEO highlighted enduring strength of core brands (Modelo, Corona, Pacifico, Kim Crawford, Mi CAMPO) and confidence in the company's ability to create demand and scale brands through consumer insights, commercial execution and disciplined investment.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management maintained FY‑27 beer net‑sales guidance while noting Q1 shipment growth of ~1.8% and a beer gross margin of 39%; Q1 benefited roughly +30 bps from fixed‑overabsorption, ~+20 bps from pricing net of mix and cost‑savings, offset by ~‑30 bps of currency/other COGS, yielding ~+20 bps gross‑margin expansion but a ~‑10 bps decline in operating margin (including ~+20 bps SG&A from Veracruz hires and ~‑10 bps from incremental marketing). Looking ahead, they still expect gross margins to be strong in Q2 and Q3 but anticipate incremental operating‑margin headwinds as marketing is increased (marketing spend expected to exceed 10% of net sales in both Q2 and Q3) and SG&A steps up; shipments and depletions should align by year‑end after Q1’s seasonal ahead‑shipping, and management cited macro volatility (e.g., prior gas spikes of ~40–70% in key states) and limited visibility as reasons for caution.

Constellation Brands Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong recent profitability and solid free cash flow support a healthy core profile, but negative recent revenue growth and a leveraged balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~1.39) temper the outlook and reduce flexibility if demand stays soft.
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
BreakdownTTMFeb 2026Feb 2025Feb 2024Feb 2023Feb 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue9.06B9.14B10.21B9.96B9.45B8.82B
Gross Profit4.77B4.71B5.20B4.91B4.81B4.60B
EBITDA3.31B3.15B782.60M3.08B1.17B1.00B
Net Income1.82B1.69B-81.40M1.73B-71.00M-40.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets22.11B21.90B21.65B25.69B24.66B25.86B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments96.60M102.40M68.10M152.40M133.50M199.40M
Total Debt10.53B11.20B12.11B12.56B12.96B10.95B
Total Liabilities13.56B13.51B14.52B15.63B15.93B13.81B
Stockholders Equity8.26B8.08B6.88B9.74B8.41B11.73B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.83B1.79B1.94B1.51B1.72B1.68B
Operating Cash Flow2.69B2.67B3.15B2.78B2.76B2.71B
Investing Cash Flow19.40M16.50M-974.80M-1.29B-999.40M-1.04B
Financing Cash Flow-2.69B-2.66B-2.26B-1.47B-1.82B-1.93B

Constellation Brands Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price130.16
Price Trends
50DMA
135.71
Negative
100DMA
143.30
Negative
200DMA
143.05
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.40
Negative
RSI
49.57
Neutral
STOCH
47.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STZ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 130.16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 131.11, below the 50-day MA of 135.71, and below the 200-day MA of 143.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STZ.

Constellation Brands Risk Analysis

Constellation Brands disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Constellation Brands reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Constellation Brands Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$49.64B15.3817.19%4.28%4.24%19.95%
69
Neutral
$13.27B18.9017.63%3.42%-0.45%-16.82%
64
Neutral
$22.24B12.4123.13%3.14%-9.99%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
60
Neutral
$48.98B20.2221.39%4.00%-1.84%-33.01%
57
Neutral
$7.81B-3.91-19.15%4.64%-1.30%-312.85%
56
Neutral
$1.89B-26.98-8.89%-6.06%-195.51%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
STZ
Constellation Brands
132.52
-35.78
-21.26%
SAM
Boston Beer
183.05
-38.33
-17.31%
DEO
Diageo
92.80
-12.45
-11.83%
TAP
Molson Coors
42.41
-5.06
-10.65%
BF.B
Brown-Forman B
28.27
-1.70
-5.67%
ABEV
Ambev SA
3.01
0.84
39.03%

Constellation Brands Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Constellation Brands Shareholders Back Governance and Incentive Plan
Positive
Jul 24, 2026
Constellation Brands held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders virtually on July 22, 2026, where shareholders elected 12 directors to one-year terms ending at the 2027 annual meeting, reinforcing continuity in the company’s board leadership. S...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Constellation Brands Reports Solid Fiscal 2027 Q1 Results
Positive
Jun 30, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Constellation Brands reported first-quarter fiscal 2027 results showing net sales of $2.43 billion, up 3% on a comparable organic basis, and operating income growth, driving reported EPS of $3.79 and comparable EPS of $3.43. The ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Constellation Brands Adds Marketing Leader to Board
Positive
May 21, 2026
On May 20, 2026, Constellation Brands expanded its Board of Directors from 11 to 12 members and elected E. Morgan Flatley, Executive Vice President and Global Chief Marketing Officer at McDonald’s, as an independent director effective immedi...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Constellation Brands Announces Redemption and New Senior Notes
Positive
May 6, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Constellation Brands, Inc. announced it has delivered notice for the full redemption prior to maturity of all its outstanding 3.700% Senior Notes due 2026, totaling $600 million in principal, with the redemption to be effected on M...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Constellation Brands Announces $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
May 5, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Constellation Brands entered into an underwriting agreement with a syndicate of major investment banks to issue $500 million of 4.850% senior notes due 2031, priced at 99.943% of par, with closing expected on May 6, 2026 subject to...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Constellation Brands Announces $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Constellation Brands, Inc. announced it had priced a public offering of $500 million of 4.850% Senior Notes due 2031 at 99.943% of par, with the notes ranking equally with its other senior unsecured debt. BofA Securities, Goldman S...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 25, 2026