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Constellation Brands (STZ) AI Stock Analysis
Constellation Brands
(NYSE:STZ)
STZ scores well on valuation (low P/E and a solid dividend) and is supported by an upbeat earnings call with reiterated guidance and improving trends. Offsetting this, financial performance is mixed due to earnings volatility and weaker recent cash-flow conversion, and the technical setup remains bearish with the stock below key moving averages and negative momentum indicators.
Constellation Brands Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Operating Income by SegmentReports profitability for each segment, exposing which businesses generate the most earnings and margins, and revealing operational leverage, cost pressures, or efficiency gains that drive the company’s bottom-line performance.
Beer remains Constellation Brands’ clear earnings engine, with operating income recovering toward record levels despite seasonal volatility. Wine & Spirits has shifted from a steady contributor to a near-breakeven drag, signaling persistent portfolio or demand challenges rather than a temporary dip. Large Comparable Adjustments create sharp distortion in reported results, while Corporate & Other remains a consistent overhead burden. The key investor question is whether beer’s durability can offset continued weakness in the higher-margin wine and spirits business.
The FlyConstellation Brands (STZ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $23.37B
- Dividend Yield
- 2.98%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 2.25M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 12.4
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.41
- Revenue Growth
- -4.31%
- EPS Growth
- 62.57%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 9,400
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Sector Strength
- 62
- Industry
- Beverages - Alcoholic
Constellation Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. The company offers beer under the Corona Extra, Corona Familiar, C...
How the Company Makes Money
Constellation Brands makes money primarily by selling beverage alcohol products—most significantly beer—into the U.S. market. Revenue is generated when the company ships branded products to customers (generally wholesalers/distributors and, in some c...
Constellation Brands Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly optimistic. Management reported a quarterly beat, reiterated fiscal 2027 guidance, cited improving September trends, leading share gains, healthy distributor inventories, strong growth from Pacifico, Victoria, Mi CAMPO, and SpikedAde, and substantial capital allocation flexibility. The main challenges were seasonal second-half margin pressures, higher planned marketing and SG&A spending, flat Q2 price/mix, Corona's performance still being below expectations, and a future depreciation headwind from Veracruz. Highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.
Q2-2027 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Constellation Brands reiterated fiscal 2027 guidance for comparable EPS of $11.20 to $11.90 per share and said that, if the positive September trends continue, it would expect to land at the high end of that range; it said there would need to be a real reversal in trends to contemplate the low end. For the full year, ships and depletes are expected to track within 99% of each other. In the second half, beer margins are expected to be 34.5% to 35.5% of operating margins, SG&A should be around 7%, and marketing should be about 10% of net sales, with the third quarter above 11%. Veracruz is now expected to come online in the first part of fiscal year '28, with annualized depreciation of about $75 million, or about 90 basis points of margin headwind. Pricing is expected to be somewhere between 1% to 2%, generally speaking, over the long run, with the company intending to be at the lower end of that range this year; most commodities and currencies are hedged at 90% or over 90%, with diesel fully hedged for the year.
Constellation Brands Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Profitability is strong on a trailing basis (high gross margin and healthy net margin), but multi-year earnings have been volatile with several loss years. Balance-sheet risk is moderate due to historically meaningful leverage, and recent cash-flow conversion weakened materially in TTM with sharply lower free cash flow, which reduces confidence versus the stronger multi-year history.
Income Statement
78PositiveBalance Sheet
72PositiveCash Flow
58Neutral| Breakdown | TTM | Feb 2026 | Feb 2025 | Feb 2024 | Feb 2023 | Feb 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 9.21B | 9.14B | 10.21B | 9.96B | 9.45B | 8.82B |
| Gross Profit | 4.85B | 4.71B | 5.20B | 4.91B | 4.81B | 4.60B |
| EBITDA | 3.25B | 3.15B | 781.30M | 3.08B | 1.17B | 1.00B |
| Net Income | 1.92B | 1.69B | -81.40M | 1.73B | -71.00M | -40.40M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 22.06B | 21.90B | 21.65B | 25.69B | 24.66B | 25.86B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 98.50M | 102.40M | 68.10M | 152.40M | 133.50M | 199.40M |
| Total Debt | 10.32B | 11.20B | 12.11B | 12.56B | 12.96B | 10.95B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.18B | 13.51B | 14.52B | 15.63B | 15.93B | 13.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.59B | 8.08B | 6.88B | 9.74B | 8.41B | 11.73B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.84B | 1.79B | 1.94B | 1.51B | 1.72B | 1.68B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.66B | 2.67B | 3.15B | 2.78B | 2.76B | 2.71B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -798.70M | 16.50M | -974.80M | -1.29B | -999.40M | -1.04B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.83B | -2.66B | -2.26B | -1.47B | -1.82B | -1.93B |
Constellation Brands Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STZ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 138.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 130.15, above the 50-day MA of 124.59, and below the 200-day MA of 139.39, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STZ.
Constellation Brands Risk Analysis
Constellation Brands disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Constellation Brands reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Latest Risks Added
1 New RiskConstellation Brands Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
ABEV72Outperform
BUD72Outperform- STZ69Neutral
DEO64Neutral
BF.A59Neutral
TAP54Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABEV | 72Outperform | $41.17B | 14.41 | 17.63% | 4.58% | 4.24% | 19.95% |
| BUD | 72Outperform | $165.02B | 13.17 | 13.31% | 1.66% | 6.60% | 31.61% |
| STZ | 69Neutral | $23.80B | 12.38 | 23.58% | 2.98% | -4.31% | 62.57% |
| DEO | 64Neutral | $54.08B | 30.42 | 15.52% | 2.13% | -3.59% | -26.73% |
| Sector * | 62Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% |
| BF.A | 59Neutral | $13.93B | 18.80 | 17.80% | 3.10% | -0.18% | -13.00% |
| TAP | 54Neutral | $8.07B | -3.63 | -22.65% | 4.56% | -1.77% | -326.16% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STZ | Constellation Brands | 138.13 | 13.83 | 11.12% | |
| BUD | Anheuser-busch Inbev | 81.15 | 19.08 | 30.75% | |
| BF.A | Brown Forman Inc A | 29.80 | 4.27 | 16.71% | |
| DEO | Diageo | 94.05 | 8.69 | 10.18% | |
| TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | 41.87 | -0.32 | -0.75% | |
| ABEV | Ambev SA | 2.64 | 0.36 | 15.74% |
Constellation Brands Corporate Events
Constellation Brands Posts Strong Q2 Results, Acquires SpikedAde
PositiveOn October 6, 2026, Constellation Brands reported results for its second fiscal quarter ended August 31, 2026, posting net sales of $2.63 billion, reported EPS of $3.32 and comparable EPS of $3.74, driven by 5% net sales growth in its beer business a...
Constellation Brands Establishes New $300 Million Term Loan
PositiveOn September 18, 2026, Constellation Brands entered into a new term loan credit agreement with Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company and other lenders, establishing a delayed draw facility of up to $300 million for general corporate purposes, inclu...
Constellation Brands Announces Early Redemption of 2027 Notes
PositiveOn September 8, 2026, Constellation Brands announced it had delivered notice for the full redemption prior to maturity of all its outstanding 4.350% Senior Notes due 2027. The $600.0 million aggregate principal amount of notes is scheduled to be rede...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 07, 2026