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Riley Exploration Permian
(REPX)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$61.00
▲(62.93% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/08/26
The score is driven by attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield) and supportive technical momentum (price above major moving averages with positive MACD). Financial performance is solid but held back by softer free-cash-flow conversion and cyclical variability, while the earnings update is net positive due to raised production guidance but tempered by midstream constraints, higher costs/CapEx, and a modest debt uptick.
Positive Factors
Production Growth
The raised production outlook signals strong well execution and expanding operated output, supporting revenue growth over the next several quarters. Higher volumes can improve fixed-cost absorption and strengthen cash generation if production ramps as planned and takeaway capacity becomes available.
Negative Factors
Weak Free-Cash-Flow Conversion
Positive operating cash flow has not translated efficiently into free cash flow, limiting internally funded growth and shareholder distributions. The low conversion rate indicates that development and infrastructure spending are absorbing a substantial share of earnings, increasing reliance on sustained production and commodity prices.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Production Growth
The raised production outlook signals strong well execution and expanding operated output, supporting revenue growth over the next several quarters. Higher volumes can improve fixed-cost absorption and strengthen cash generation if production ramps as planned and takeaway capacity becomes available.
Read all positive factors
Riley Exploration Permian (REPX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.20B
Dividend Yield2.95%
Average Volume (3M)316.30K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.7
Beta (1Y)0.43
Revenue Growth23.16%
EPS Growth21.24%
CountryUS
Employees122
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.60
Shares Outstanding22,153,786
10 Day Avg. Volume263,843
30 Day Avg. Volume316,296
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)0.88
Price to Sales (P/S)1.42
P/FCF Ratio6.47
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.79
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.96
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.27
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.28
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$58.50Price Target Upside56.25% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)7.07
Revenue Forecast (FY)$619.70M
Riley Exploration Permian Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) functions as an independent energy company, engaged in the entire process of hydrocarbon extraction—from acquiring properties and exploring for reserves to developing sites and producing oil, natural gas, and...
How the Company Makes Money
REPX primarily makes money by producing and selling crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) from its wells. Revenue is generated when produced volumes are sold to purchasers (e.g., marketers, refiners, or midstream counterparties) a...
Riley Exploration Permian Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive operational and strategic update: record activity, meaningful drilling and cost efficiency gains, strong safety performance, and upgraded production guidance (roughly 30% YoY). Key value-creating items included strong Silverback performance, high-return workovers adding ~700 bbl/d, and measurable unit-cost improvements across Texas and New Mexico. Near-term challenges tempering the outlook include midstream constraints that caused ~2,000 bbl/d of temporary shut-ins, higher LOE and infrastructure-driven CapEx, a substantial build in cash CapEx that compressed quarterly free cash flow to $6M, and a modest increase in debt. Management expects the Targa pipeline and WaterBridge disposal capacity to relieve constraints and support accelerated production in H2 and into 2027, and they forecast higher free cash flow in H2 than H1. Weighing the operational wins and upgraded production outlook against the midstream, cost, and cash-flow pressures, the positives modestly outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Record Development Activity and Production Momentum
Most active development program in company history in Q2; June oil production exit rate of 24,400 bbl/d; quarter averaged 5% sequential oil growth and management is using the June exit rate as the primary momentum indicator.
Negative Updates
Midstream Constraints and Temporary Shut-Ins
Midstream constraints in April and May required temporary well shut-ins and reduced oil production by ~2,000 bbl/d, limiting the quarter's full production potential until pipeline capacity is available.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Development Activity and Production Momentum
Most active development program in company history in Q2; June oil production exit rate of 24,400 bbl/d; quarter averaged 5% sequential oil growth and management is using the June exit rate as the primary momentum indicator.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company raised its full‑year production outlook and updated 2026 financial pacing: June exit oil production was 24,400 bpd, Q2 average oil grew ~5% sequentially, Q3 guidance at the midpoint is 25,600 bpd (≈5% above June and >20% above Q2), and full‑year oil production midpoint was increased to ~23,000 bpd (implying ~30%+ year‑over‑year growth); Q2 operational metrics included net drilled/ completed/turned‑to‑sales of 19.9 / 17.3 / 13.9 wells and a drilled:turned ratio of 1.2 (carrying DUCs into 2027); Q2 accrual CapEx was $87M (Drill & Complete $70M; Infrastructure/Other ~$17M) with Q3 accrual CapEx guided to $59M and full‑year CapEx raised 12% (+$26M) to $236M (≈1/3 upstream, 2/3 infrastructure, ~60% of the infrastructure bump tied to saltwater‑disposal), while Q2 cash CapEx was $18M (21% below accrual), operating cash flow was $64M, Q2 free cash flow was $6M (YTD ~$30M) with H2 free cash flow expected to be higher, quarter‑end debt rose 11% to $273M, the company spent $9.5M on dividends/buybacks and closed a $2.4M acreage purchase (4 net locations, ~$600k/location), and key timing assumptions include the Targa high‑pressure line entering service early Q4 and WaterBridge SWD support beginning in September.Riley Exploration Permian Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 483.86M | 391.98M | 410.18M | 375.05M | 321.74M | 3.04M |
| Gross Profit | 289.39M | 181.88M | 234.03M | 220.87M | 237.45M | -710.00K |
| EBITDA | 221.50M | 334.19M | 223.50M | 240.03M | 182.81M | -2.87M |
| Net Income | 118.67M | 160.84M | 88.90M | 111.59M | 118.01M | -3.65M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.27B | 1.17B | 993.50M | 945.71M | 515.29M | 5.37M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 20.69M | 17.89M | 13.12M | 15.32M | 13.30M | 1.56M |
| Total Debt | 267.50M | 255.01M | 277.17M | 362.00M | 60.61M | 119.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 637.14M | 535.34M | 482.89M | 524.12M | 181.85M | 2.66M |
| Stockholders Equity | 633.35M | 634.24M | 510.62M | 421.60M | 333.45M | 2.71M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 59.50M | 86.25M | 116.35M | 65.89M | 42.03M | -1.66M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 239.19M | 212.54M | 246.27M | 207.19M | 170.29M | -1.55M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -176.96M | -145.77M | -147.84M | -469.56M | -128.26M | -71.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | -55.57M | -62.01M | -100.63M | 264.38M | -37.05M | 126.00K |
Riley Exploration Permian Technical Analysis
Positive
37.44
Price Trends
42.45
Positive
38.17
Positive
35.12
Positive
Market Momentum
2.69
Negative
80.03
Negative
86.16
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For REPX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 37.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.51, below the 50-day MA of 42.45, and above the 200-day MA of 35.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.69 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 80.03 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.16 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for REPX.
Riley Exploration Permian Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $7.42B | 10.28 | 12.76% | 2.61% | 1.84% | -14.76% | |
74 Outperform | $1.20B | 9.68 | 19.88% | 3.09% | 23.16% | 21.24% | |
73 Outperform | $21.35B | 16.48 | 11.32% | 2.47% | 12.81% | -5.91% | |
71 Outperform | $57.62B | 40.19 | 4.22% | 2.07% | 21.45% | -63.30% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
61 Neutral | $5.68B | 94.53 | 1.12% | 3.47% | 24.25% | ― | |
57 Neutral | $372.57M | -1.30 | -28.80% | ― | -3.15% | -416.57% |
* Energy Sector Average
REPX
Riley Exploration Permian
54.18
28.76
113.11%
MTDR
Matador Resources
59.96
21.76
56.95%
FANG
Diamondback
205.75
64.75
45.92%
REI
Ring Energy
1.43
0.43
43.00%
PR
Permian Resources
25.49
13.33
109.67%
CRGY
Crescent Energy Company Class A
13.83
5.76
71.35%
Riley Exploration Permian Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Riley Exploration Permian Refinances Debt, Extends Credit Facility
Positive
Oct 7, 2026
On October 5, 2026, Riley Exploration Permian fully repaid its outstanding $130 million 10.50% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2028 at par plus accrued interest, with no prepayment premium, marking a significant shift in its debt profile. The repayment...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.