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Diamondback
(NASDAQ:FANG)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$215.00
â–²(7.59% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/17/26
FANG scores well primarily on financial resilience—strong balance sheet deleveraging and robust TTM free cash flow—supported by a generally constructive earnings update with production outperformance and cost/efficiency progress. The score is held back by weaker profitability versus prior peak years, a mixed near-term technical setup (below key short-term averages), and a relatively elevated P/E that increases downside sensitivity if margins or commodity conditions soften.
Positive Factors
Very low leverage and strong capital structure
Diamondback’s sharply reduced leverage provides substantial financial flexibility and lowers the burden of interest and refinancing obligations. A strong equity base relative to debt should help the company sustain development spending, manage commodity volatility, and preserve options for shareholder returns.
Negative Factors
Profitability has weakened from prior peak levels
The decline in margins and returns shows that Diamondback’s strong asset base is currently generating less profit than during the 2022–2024 peak period. Weaker earnings quality and inconsistent operating profitability could limit reinvestment capacity if cost pressure or less favorable commodity conditions persist.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Very low leverage and strong capital structure
Diamondback’s sharply reduced leverage provides substantial financial flexibility and lowers the burden of interest and refinancing obligations. A strong equity base relative to debt should help the company sustain development spending, manage commodity volatility, and preserve options for shareholder returns.
Read all positive factors
Diamondback Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Production by Segment
Shows the output from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating operational focus and efficiency.
Shows the output from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating operational focus and efficiency.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyDiamondback (FANG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$54.64B
Dividend Yield2.14%
Average Volume (3M)2.84M
Price to Earnings (P/E)38.7
Beta (1Y)0.33
Revenue Growth21.45%
EPS Growth-63.30%
CountryUS
Employees1,762
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.12
Shares Outstanding280,024,350
10 Day Avg. Volume2,163,615
30 Day Avg. Volume2,839,939
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.42
Price to Book (P/B)1.18
Price to Sales (P/S)2.89
P/FCF Ratio8.30
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.24
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.96
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.90
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.49
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$233.11Price Target Upside16.65% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)21.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)$18.95B
Diamondback Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Diamondback Energy, Inc. operates as an independent enterprise focused on oil and natural gas. Its core business involves the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of unconventional and onshore hydrocarbon reserves, predominantly l...
How the Company Makes Money
Diamondback makes money primarily by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs—from its operated and non-operated wells. Revenue is largely generated through (1) crude oil sales, typically the company’s largest revenue st...
Diamondback Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted multiple operational and financial wins: production outperformance (~4% YTD), significant net-debt reduction ($1.6B / ~$5.60 per share), LOE below $6/bbl, gas-marketing improvements, early positive EOR results, and progress on Barnett and a shovel-ready power/data center project. Headwinds cited included ongoing macro volatility, some inflationary pressures (notably casing and consumables), variability in EOR outcomes, and near-term infrastructure/maturity considerations. On balance the company presented more concrete operational and financial positives than negatives and emphasized disciplined, flexible capital allocation.Positive Updates
Production Growth Execution
Company increased production ~4% year-to-date vs. the original plan (management noted they were the first to raise production in March by 3%–4% and are ~4% above the start-of-year level). Management expects low single-digit organic growth into 2027 while running five frac crews and remaining capital-efficient.
Negative Updates
Macro Volatility and Uncertainty
Management emphasized ongoing market volatility and uncertainty (geopolitics and inventory noise). They stressed the need to remain flexible and noted that macro dislocations can change decisions quickly, underscoring risk to planning.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Growth Execution
Company increased production ~4% year-to-date vs. the original plan (management noted they were the first to raise production in March by 3%–4% and are ~4% above the start-of-year level). Management expects low single-digit organic growth into 2027 while running five frac crews and remaining capital-efficient.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said 2026 production is running about 3–4% above the original plan (roughly +4% YTD) and their plan today yields low‑single‑digit organic growth into 2027 while running five frac crews, with Q3 potentially flat to modestly higher; they estimate a maintenance capital run‑rate of roughly $1.0B to a little over $1.0B per quarter to hold production flat. Operational targets include drilling cycle times down from ~30 days to ~5, average pumping >21 hours/day (aspire to 24) with a 5,000+ ft/day bogey per pad, Barnett drilling costs trending toward ~$400/ft (stretch goal ~$300/ft) and average laterals moving above ~12,000 ft; U‑turn testing (6 wells) and a 12‑well surfactant EOR trial (following an earlier ~50‑well pilot) are underway. Key financials: LOE around $6/boe, net debt reduced by $1.6B (≈$5.60/share), non‑D&C spend ≈$600M YTD, and management will continue opportunistic buybacks (they repurchased >5% of shares in 2025).Diamondback Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 17.10B | 15.03B | 11.02B | 8.34B | 9.57B | 6.75B |
| Gross Profit | 7.60B | 5.28B | 4.97B | 4.80B | 6.70B | 4.27B |
| EBITDA | 7.13B | 7.16B | 7.64B | 6.17B | 7.23B | 4.37B |
| Net Income | 1.59B | 1.66B | 3.34B | 3.14B | 4.39B | 2.18B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 70.22B | 71.06B | 67.29B | 29.00B | 26.21B | 22.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 462.00M | 106.00M | 161.00M | 582.00M | 157.00M | 654.00M |
| Total Debt | 12.61B | 14.88B | 12.43B | 6.80B | 6.38B | 6.77B |
| Total Liabilities | 26.23B | 28.09B | 27.43B | 11.57B | 10.52B | 9.65B |
| Stockholders Equity | 37.90B | 36.97B | 37.74B | 16.63B | 15.01B | 12.09B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.50B | 5.24B | -5.37B | 1.21B | 2.71B | 1.67B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.14B | 8.76B | 6.41B | 5.92B | 6.33B | 3.94B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.23B | -7.81B | -11.22B | -3.32B | -3.33B | -1.54B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.67B | -1.01B | 4.39B | -2.18B | -3.50B | -1.84B |
Diamondback Technical Analysis
Positive
199.84
Price Trends
196.27
Positive
193.45
Positive
184.61
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.20
Negative
59.37
Neutral
86.49
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FANG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 199.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 188.64, above the 50-day MA of 196.27, and above the 200-day MA of 184.61, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -1.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.49 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FANG.
Diamondback Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $78.95B | 11.86 | 22.38% | 2.66% | 17.13% | 24.89% | |
74 Outperform | $6.82B | 9.58 | 12.76% | 2.68% | 1.84% | -14.76% | |
73 Outperform | $53.86B | 11.87 | 14.90% | 2.23% | 18.28% | -5.35% | |
73 Outperform | $19.60B | 15.68 | 11.32% | 2.60% | 12.81% | -5.91% | |
71 Outperform | $54.64B | 38.71 | 4.22% | 2.14% | 21.45% | -63.30% | |
67 Neutral | $17.94B | 18.94 | 8.27% | 1.80% | 6.17% | 57.64% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
FANG
Diamondback
198.18
59.58
42.99%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.