Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI)
NASDAQ:REFI
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Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc
(NASDAQ:REFI)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$12.50
â–²(3.22% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:06/01/26
The score is driven primarily by solid-but-not-clean financial performance (strong scaling and moderate leverage, offset by earnings/cash-flow consistency concerns). Earnings-call takeaways are constructive (dividend policy maintained, large pipeline, better nonaccruals) but tempered by rising credit reserves/risk ratings and higher leverage. Valuation is a clear positive (low P/E and high yield), while technicals are a meaningful headwind given the stock trading below key moving averages with negative MACD.
Positive Factors
Revenue Scaling
Sustained multi-year revenue growth reflects successful scaling of the lending platform and expanding origination capacity. Durable revenue expansion supports recurring interest income, enhances fee generation potential and provides a larger amortizing loan base to absorb periodic credit stress over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Rising Credit Risk
A material increase in downgraded loans and elevated CECL reserves signals worsening credit quality among portfolio borrowers. Higher loss provisioning and concentrated problem loans raise the probability of realized losses and reduce distributable cash, pressuring capital cushions and underwriting standards over months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Scaling
Sustained multi-year revenue growth reflects successful scaling of the lending platform and expanding origination capacity. Durable revenue expansion supports recurring interest income, enhances fee generation potential and provides a larger amortizing loan base to absorb periodic credit stress over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc (REFI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$239.22M
Dividend Yield15.86%
Average Volume (3M)142.32K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.7
Beta (1Y)0.57
Revenue Growth1.82%
EPS Growth-24.02%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.46
Shares Outstanding21,207,228
10 Day Avg. Volume109,295
30 Day Avg. Volume142,318
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.65
Price to Book (P/B)0.84
Price to Sales (P/S)4.08
P/FCF Ratio8.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap91.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue365.93
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit389.88
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.45K
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.00Price Target Upside40.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$55.80M
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a commercial real estate finance company in the United States. It originates, structures, and invests in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real e...
How the Company Makes Money
REFI makes money primarily by earning interest income on the loans it originates and holds, typically loans secured by commercial real estate and/or related collateral. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) Interest income: periodic interest ...
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a constructive and optimistic view: management highlighted a significant regulatory tailwind from the DOJ’s rescheduling action, a sizeable $482M pipeline (with $133M real-estate backed), restored accrual status on a previously nonaccrual loan, maintained dividend policy, and solid liquidity (~$54M). Offsetting these positives are elevated CECL reserves (+$3.8M), an increase in risk-rated loans (10.7% vs 4.8%), modest yield compression (15.8% vs 16.3%), and higher leverage (38% vs 32%). On balance, the favorable regulatory developments, pipeline depth, improved nonaccruals and preserved dividend posture materially outweigh the near-term credit reserve increases and modest yield/borrowings headwinds, supporting a positive outlook.Positive Updates
Federal Rescheduling Tailwind
DOJ rescheduled certain medical marijuana products to Schedule III (April 23), which management expects to reduce the Section 280E tax burden, provide retrospective relief on legacy tax liabilities, improve operator cash flows and credit profiles, and potentially lower barriers to U.S. exchanges; administrative hearing scheduled June 29–July 15 could broaden rescheduling.
Negative Updates
Increase in Risk-Rated Loans and Specific Credit Pressure
Percentage of portfolio risk rated 4 or higher rose to ~10.7% from ~4.8% at 12/31/2025 (increase of 5.9 percentage points). This shift was primarily driven by a downgrade of loan #36 and contributed to higher CECL reserves.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Federal Rescheduling Tailwind
DOJ rescheduled certain medical marijuana products to Schedule III (April 23), which management expects to reduce the Section 280E tax burden, provide retrospective relief on legacy tax liabilities, improve operator cash flows and credit profiles, and potentially lower barriers to U.S. exchanges; administrative hearing scheduled June 29–July 15 could broaden rescheduling.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 90%–100% of basic distributable earnings per share for the 2026 tax year (with a potential special Q4 dividend if needed to meet taxable income), reported a $482M pipeline (≈$133M real-estate-backed), a loan portfolio of ≈$414M across 25 companies with a weighted average yield to maturity of 15.8% (vs. 16.3% in Q4’25), Q1 gross originations ≈$54M (new $16.2M, existing $37.8M) and repayments ≈$52M (scheduled amortization $3.3M, prepayments $48.2M), nonaccruals down to 4.8% (from 11.1%), risk-rated ≥4 at 10.7% (from 4.8%), CECL reserves ≈$8.7M (up ≈$3.8M) or ~2.1% of loan principal, weighted-average real estate coverage 1.2x, portfolio mix 35.2% fixed / 64.8% floating (71.9% of floating prime, 28.1% SOFR), prime at 6.75% with 100% of prime loans at floors and only ~4% of principal exposed to further rate declines, total leverage 38% of book equity (vs. 32% prior) with $67.1M revolver and $49.4M unsecured term loan outstanding, ≈$59M available on the senior facility and ≈$54M total liquidity net of estimated liabilities; Q1 net interest income was $13.1M (–8% vs. $14.2M), interest expense ≈$2M, distributable earnings per share ≈$0.47 basic / $0.46 diluted, April dividend $0.47, book value/share $14.39 with ~21.5M fully diluted shares, and subsequent April–today activity included ≈$15.8M in new advances (new $13.1M, existing $2.7M) and ≈$14.3M in repayments (scheduled $1.8M, prepayments $12.5M).Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 59.52M | 63.10M | 54.78M | 57.33M | 48.86M | 14.47M |
| Gross Profit | 55.86M | 54.82M | 54.78M | 57.33M | 48.86M | 14.24M |
| EBITDA | 15.04M | 36.01M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Net Income | 30.81M | 36.01M | 37.05M | 38.71M | 32.29M | 12.66M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 435.95M | 424.92M | 435.15M | 359.23M | 343.27M | 278.17M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 27.86M | 14.95M | 26.40M | 7.90M | 5.72M | 80.25M |
| Total Debt | 116.44M | 98.43M | 104.10M | 66.00M | 58.00M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 132.53M | 117.10M | 126.19M | 87.37M | 79.24M | 14.09M |
| Stockholders Equity | 303.42M | 307.81M | 308.96M | 271.85M | 264.03M | 264.08M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 24.33M | 28.79M | 23.16M | 28.42M | 17.01M | 6.67M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 24.33M | 28.79M | 23.16M | 28.42M | 17.01M | 6.67M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 4.96M | 8.74M | -39.30M | -1.93M | -125.24M | -145.22M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -11.31M | -48.98M | 34.64M | -24.31M | 33.71M | 218.80M |
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Technical Analysis
Negative
12.11
Price Trends
11.57
Negative
11.65
Negative
11.79
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.12
Positive
44.59
Neutral
35.95
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For REFI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.36, above the 50-day MA of 11.57, and above the 200-day MA of 11.79, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for REFI.
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Risk Analysis
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc disclosed 109 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $300.25M | 2.86 | 16.68% | 14.36% | -1.80% | 39.83% | |
67 Neutral | $239.22M | 7.72 | 0.04% | 15.86% | 1.82% | -24.02% | |
67 Neutral | $192.29M | 12.47 | 5.14% | 13.82% | -7.31% | -22.36% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
55 Neutral | $244.25M | 7.25 | 6.11% | 9.61% | 15.52% | -54.74% | |
52 Neutral | $276.85M | -13.91 | -3.88% | 13.75% | -35.42% | -46.68% | |
50 Neutral | $206.04M | 12.71 | 6.23% | 14.83% | 31.73% | -55.72% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
REFI
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc
11.28
-1.03
-8.38%
ACRE
Ares Commercial
4.99
0.69
15.91%
SEVN
Seven Hills Realty Trust
8.51
-1.95
-18.61%
MITT
AG Mortgage
7.68
1.10
16.68%
NREF
NexPoint Real Estate ate Finance
15.93
2.51
18.73%
AOMR
Angel Oak Mortgage
8.27
0.38
4.87%
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate ate Finance Inc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Chicago Atlantic Posts Q1 2026 Results Amid Cannabis Shift
Positive
May 7, 2026
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance reported its first-quarter 2026 results on May 7, 2026, highlighting net interest income of about $13.1 million and distributable earnings of $0.46–$0.47 per share, alongside regular dividends of $0.47 pe...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Reports Strong 2025 Results
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance on March 12, 2026 reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting net interest income of $14.2 million for the quarter and $55.4 million for the year, with quarterly net income of $8.2 mill...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.