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Phillips 66
(NYSE:PSX)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$273.00
▲(32.03% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/06/26
PSX scores well on improving financial performance and a strong, guidance-rich earnings call emphasizing cash generation, shareholder returns, and debt reduction. Technicals are supportive with the stock above key medium/long-term moving averages and positive MACD. The primary offset is valuation: a ~20.8 P/E and a ~2.33% yield leave less margin for error given the business’s historically volatile margins and cash-flow swings.
Positive Factors
Midstream capacity growth
Expanding fractionation, export and logistics capacity strengthens Phillips 66’s fee-based infrastructure platform. Record LPG volumes and a visible 2027 EBITDA target can improve earnings resilience by adding higher-volume, less commodity-sensitive cash flows.
Negative Factors
Cyclical and thin margins
Phillips 66 remains exposed to refining and chemicals cycles, where modest changes in spreads, utilization or feedstock costs can materially affect earnings. Thin structural margins provide limited protection when market conditions weaken, making cash generation less predictable.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Midstream capacity growth
Expanding fractionation, export and logistics capacity strengthens Phillips 66’s fee-based infrastructure platform. Record LPG volumes and a visible 2027 EBITDA target can improve earnings resilience by adding higher-volume, less commodity-sensitive cash flows.
Read all positive factors
Phillips 66 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Income Before Taxes by Segment
Shows the profitability of each business unit before tax obligations, highlighting which segments are driving earnings and which may need strategic adjustments.
Shows the profitability of each business unit before tax obligations, highlighting which segments are driving earnings and which may need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPhillips 66 (PSX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$97.16B
Dividend Yield2.07%
Average Volume (3M)2.79M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.7
Beta (1Y)0.63
Revenue Growth15.60%
EPS Growth322.30%
CountryUS
Employees12,600
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)17.63
Shares Outstanding399,020,900
10 Day Avg. Volume2,582,074
30 Day Avg. Volume2,788,052
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)1.80
Price to Sales (P/S)0.40
P/FCF Ratio19.20
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$223.64Price Target Upside8.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)25.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$165.16B
Phillips 66 Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Phillips 66 operates as a diversified energy company, specializing in both manufacturing and logistics. Its comprehensive business model is structured across four primary segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing & Specialties (M&S)....
How the Company Makes Money
Phillips 66 primarily makes money by converting hydrocarbon feedstocks into higher-value products and by charging for transportation, storage, and related logistics services. Key revenue streams include: (1) Refining: revenue is generated from sel...
Phillips 66 Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial execution: solid adjusted earnings ($3.8B), robust cash flow ($4.3B ex-WC), tangible balance sheet progress (net debt $16.5B with guidance to < $16B), and continued organic growth in Midstream, Refining performance improvements, and Renewables utilization above nameplate. Management reiterated disciplined capital allocation (dividends plus buybacks) and concrete project roadmaps (Midstream expansions, Western Gateway FID expected). Offsetting risks include mark-to-market earnings volatility ($450M favorable in the quarter), regulatory uncertainty for renewable credits, China demand/export unpredictability, commodity and cost inflation, and sensitivity to global refining capacity disruptions. On balance the positive operational results, clear targets for debt reduction and cash returns, and visible organic growth projects materially outweigh the noted risks.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Earnings and Cash Generation
Second quarter reported and adjusted earnings of $3.8 billion; reported EPS $9.55 and adjusted EPS $9.41. Operating cash flow excluding working capital was $4.3 billion for the quarter.
Negative Updates
Exposure to Mark-to-Market Volatility
Q2 results included approximately $450 million of favorable mark-to-market impacts across Refining, Marketing & Specialties and Renewables (Refining ~$240M, M&S ~$160M, Renewables ~$47M). Management noted Q2 gains were roughly 50% of Q1 mark-to-market losses, highlighting earnings volatility from commodity hedges and MTM accounting.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Earnings and Cash Generation
Second quarter reported and adjusted earnings of $3.8 billion; reported EPS $9.55 and adjusted EPS $9.41. Operating cash flow excluding working capital was $4.3 billion for the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company gave detailed near‑term and medium‑term guidance with many specific metrics: Q2 reported and adjusted earnings were $3.8 billion (EPS $9.55/$9.41), operating cash flow excluding working capital was $4.3 billion, capital spending was $726 million, and Phillips 66 returned $887 million to shareholders in the quarter (share repurchases $379 million, dividends $508 million); total debt was $20.6 billion and net debt $16.5 billion (management expects net debt < $16 billion by year‑end and reiterated the $17 billion total‑debt target by year‑end 2027, while flagging a potential next net‑debt target near $13.5–$14 billion / ~ $15 billion total debt). For Q3 the company expects Chemicals O&P utilization in the low‑90s, worldwide Refining crude utilization in the mid‑90s, turnaround expense of $100–$120 million, and Corporate & Other costs of $325–$350 million; Refining captured 98% of its market indicator in Q2 (management historically guides ~95% capture and sees no reason for a change this year). They also reiterated Midstream targets (year‑end 2027 run‑rate Midstream EBITDA ~$4.5 billion; fractionation capacity >1.0 million b/d with >100% avg utilization, record LPG/NGL exports and organic projects like Iron Mesa, Coastal Bend and anticipated Western Gateway FID), Renewables running above nameplate (Rodeo ~106% in Q2) and segment mark‑to‑market benefits of roughly $450 million this quarter (Refining ~$240M, M&S ~$160M, Renewables ~ $50M); liquidity at quarter end was $4.1 billion cash plus $6.4 billion committed capacity (~$10.5 billion total), and management plans to continue returning >50% of net operating cash flow (ex‑WC) to shareholders and to increase buybacks in H2.Phillips 66 Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 153.60B | 132.19B | 143.12B | 147.26B | 170.12B | 111.94B |
| Gross Profit | 15.02B | 6.49B | 4.86B | 11.29B | 12.77B | 3.38B |
| EBITDA | 12.85B | 9.76B | 5.99B | 12.37B | 16.91B | 3.95B |
| Net Income | 7.09B | 4.40B | 2.12B | 7.00B | 11.02B | 1.31B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 81.81B | 73.68B | 72.58B | 75.50B | 76.44B | 55.59B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.10B | 1.12B | 1.74B | 3.32B | 6.13B | 3.15B |
| Total Debt | 20.57B | 22.88B | 20.06B | 19.36B | 17.19B | 14.74B |
| Total Liabilities | 49.11B | 43.44B | 44.12B | 43.85B | 42.34B | 33.96B |
| Stockholders Equity | 31.51B | 29.09B | 27.41B | 30.58B | 29.49B | 19.17B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.39B | 2.73B | 2.33B | 4.61B | 8.62B | 4.16B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.93B | 4.96B | 4.19B | 7.03B | 10.81B | 6.02B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.17B | -1.97B | -2.46B | -5.86B | -1.49B | -1.87B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.77B | -3.67B | -3.31B | -4.03B | -6.39B | -3.47B |
Phillips 66 Technical Analysis
Positive
206.77
Price Trends
195.79
Positive
183.38
Positive
163.82
Positive
Market Momentum
12.09
Negative
79.60
Negative
96.93
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PSX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 206.77 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 215.91, above the 50-day MA of 195.79, and above the 200-day MA of 163.82, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 12.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 79.60 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.93 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PSX.
Phillips 66 Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $17.01B | 8.99 | 19.86% | 2.27% | 16.26% | ― | |
79 Outperform | $8.91B | 6.43 | 24.08% | 1.78% | 13.54% | ― | |
77 Outperform | $100.79B | 14.36 | 29.94% | 1.54% | 12.92% | 898.48% | |
74 Outperform | $97.16B | 13.74 | 24.45% | 2.39% | 15.60% | 322.30% | |
73 Outperform | $102.84B | 12.42 | 48.71% | 1.26% | 15.19% | 331.26% | |
69 Neutral | $15.79B | 14.99 | 18.17% | 4.99% | 83.34% | 123.75% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
PSX
Phillips 66
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100.46%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.