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Oatly Group
(NASDAQ:OTLY)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▼(-44.08% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/29/26
OTLY’s score is held back primarily by weak financial structure and cash generation (high debt, negative equity, and ongoing negative free cash flow), reinforced by bearish technicals (trading below all key moving averages with negative MACD). The latest earnings call adds some support via improving revenue, margins, and positive adjusted EBITDA, but the reduced EBITDA guidance and continued cost inflation/negative free cash flow keep the overall outlook constrained.
Positive Factors
Revenue and Margin Improvement
Improving revenue alongside substantial gross-margin expansion indicates stronger product, channel, and customer mix, plus better fixed-cost absorption. If sustained, this combination can narrow losses, improve operating leverage, and support a more durable path toward profitability.
Negative Factors
Negative Equity and High Leverage
High debt combined with negative stockholders’ equity materially reduces financial flexibility and increases dependence on successful execution or external funding. This structure can constrain investment, elevate refinancing risk, and amplify the effect of continued operating losses.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and Margin Improvement
Improving revenue alongside substantial gross-margin expansion indicates stronger product, channel, and customer mix, plus better fixed-cost absorption. If sustained, this combination can narrow losses, improve operating leverage, and support a more durable path toward profitability.
Read all positive factors
Oatly Group (OTLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$255.30M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)105.18K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.25
Revenue Growth12.01%
EPS Growth61.83%
CountryUS
Employees1,388
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-5.02
Shares Outstanding31,912,258
10 Day Avg. Volume190,539
30 Day Avg. Volume105,176
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)17.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.38
P/FCF Ratio-8.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.44
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.75
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.26
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-30.97
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.50Price Target Upside-37.50% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.86
Revenue Forecast (FY)$961.68M
Oatly Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Oatly Group AB, a company established in 1994 and based in Malmö, Sweden, specializes in the production of plant-based dairy alternatives. Utilizing oats as its core ingredient, Oatly offers a comprehensive array of food and beverage products, inc...
How the Company Makes Money
Oatly makes money primarily by selling oat-based food and beverage products to customers in retail and foodservice channels. Revenue is generated through wholesale shipments of finished goods (e.g., oat milk and related oat-based products) to groc...
Oatly Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 17, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented strong underlying operating momentum, including 9.1% revenue growth, positive adjusted EBITDA, substantial growth in Europe and International, North American market-share gains, continued distribution expansion, and a broad innovation pipeline. However, these positives were offset by a significant reduction in adjusted EBITDA guidance, sharply higher North American fuel and freight costs expected to persist into 2027, negative free cash flow, continued Greater China weakness, and the need for pricing actions. Overall, the positive operating trends and growth initiatives were balanced by material profitability, cash-flow, and macroeconomic challenges.Positive Updates
Solid Third-Quarter Revenue Growth
Third-quarter revenue grew 9.1%, or 8.9% in constant currency. Volume increased 4.2%, price mix increased 4.7%, and foreign exchange provided a 0.2% tailwind.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Guidance Reduced
Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance was reduced from the prior range of €25 million to €35 million to €16 million to €20 million. Management said the reduction was fully related to the sudden and abrupt increase in North American logistics inflation, with no other factors included in the revision.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Solid Third-Quarter Revenue Growth
Third-quarter revenue grew 9.1%, or 8.9% in constant currency. Volume increased 4.2%, price mix increased 4.7%, and foreign exchange provided a 0.2% tailwind.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For full year 2026, Oatly maintained its outlook for constant currency revenue growth of 8% to 10% and full year CapEx in the range of €20 million to €30 million, with a bias to the middle of this range, while reducing adjusted EBITDA guidance from €25 million to €35 million to €16 million to €20 million; on a reported basis, assuming no change for the rest of the year, FX is expected to add approximately 200 to 250 basis points to net sales, free cash flow will not be positive for the full year 2026, and Q4 cash flow is expected to improve relative to Q3 and last year, while Q4 cost inflation in North America is estimated to be in the low double digit percent and US freight to customer per liter sold is expected to be 12.5% higher than the average of H1 2026; incremental pricing is planned in North America effective in the first quarter of 27, Europe pricing is under review, and the company currently projects 2027 to be the worst of 2026 going into 2027 for key cost of goods sold and logistic-like items.Oatly Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
27
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.17B | 862.46M | 823.67M | 783.35M | 722.24M | 643.19M |
| Gross Profit | 387.79M | 277.06M | 236.49M | 152.08M | 80.03M | 155.01M |
| EBITDA | -28.33M | -96.35M | -86.13M | -288.05M | -335.15M | -172.15M |
| Net Income | -155.18M | -152.77M | -201.95M | -416.87M | -392.57M | -212.39M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 712.71M | 787.20M | 803.98M | 1.12B | 1.23B | 1.63B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 23.32M | 64.34M | 98.92M | 249.30M | 82.64M | 545.51M |
| Total Debt | 551.35M | 560.24M | 491.45M | 532.84M | 151.70M | 149.21M |
| Total Liabilities | 762.54M | 767.53M | 697.86M | 781.19M | 434.05M | 383.61M |
| Stockholders Equity | -50.82M | 18.55M | 104.69M | 333.99M | 791.14M | 1.25B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -42.84M | -36.12M | -155.62M | -234.67M | -475.11M | -495.43M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -20.20M | -23.72M | -114.43M | -165.63M | -268.95M | -213.83M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -23.99M | -15.54M | -9.25M | -26.70M | 34.79M | -544.33M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 149.98K | 1.18M | -27.29M | 355.00M | 35.92M | 955.80M |
Oatly Group Technical Analysis
Negative
15.20
Price Trends
12.32
Negative
11.71
Negative
11.33
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.51
Positive
23.36
Positive
14.73
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OTLY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.97, above the 50-day MA of 12.32, and above the 200-day MA of 11.33, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.51 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 23.36 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.73 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OTLY.
Oatly Group Risk Analysis
Oatly Group disclosed 77 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Oatly Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Oatly Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
56 Neutral | $350.78M | 32.32 | 12.66% | <0.01% | 25.59% | 1.38% | |
47 Neutral | $29.89M | -6.85 | -11.36% | ― | 73.26% | -239.94% | |
46 Neutral | $183.68M | -2.54 | -16.45% | 25.22% | -4.91% | 68.74% | |
45 Neutral | $255.30M | -3.98 | 675.83% | ― | 12.01% | 61.83% | |
43 Neutral | $134.99M | -0.39 | -154.97% | ― | -14.11% | 70.22% | |
41 Neutral | $11.21M | -0.04 | -106.47% | ― | -13.23% | 43.34% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
OTLY
Oatly Group
8.00
-7.79
-49.34%
BGS
B&G Foods
2.26
-1.23
-35.26%
LWAY
Lifeway Foods
23.22
-0.77
-3.21%
HAIN
Hain Celestial
0.12
-1.04
-89.40%
BYND
Beyond Meat
7.38
-42.27
-85.14%
LSF
Laird Superfood
2.67
-2.28
-46.06%
Oatly Group Corporate Events
Oatly Posts Strong Q3 Revenue Growth but Trims 2026 Profit Outlook Amid Cost Pressures
Oct 28, 2026
On October 28, 2026, Oatly reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $243.1 million, up 9.1% year on year, with constant-currency growth of 8.9% and gross margin expanding to 34.1%. The company reduced its net loss attributable to shareholders to $27...
Oatly Narrows Losses as Revenue Climbs in Third Quarter 2026
Oct 28, 2026
Oatly Group AB reported its unaudited interim results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026, showing continued revenue growth but persistent losses. Revenue rose to $243.1 million for the third quarter of 2026 from $222.8 million ...
Oatly Secures Approval for Nordic Bond Prospectus Ahead of Nasdaq Stockholm Listing
Sep 24, 2026
On September 24, 2026, Oatly Group AB announced that the prospectus for its SEK 1.7 billion senior secured floating rate Nordic Bonds, originally issued on September 30, 2025, has been approved and registered by the Swedish Financial Supervisory A...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.