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Oatly Group
(NASDAQ:OTLY)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$15.00
▼(-1.32% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/24/26
OTLY scores in the low-50s primarily due to weak financial resilience—ongoing losses, negative free cash flow, and a strained balance sheet with high debt and negative equity. Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above major moving averages and a positive MACD, and the latest earnings call was constructive on growth after a meaningful revenue guidance raise, but profitability/FCF outlook and cost pressures keep the overall score restrained.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth and Raised Guidance
Accelerating sales and the higher full-year outlook indicate stronger demand, broader distribution and improved execution. Sustained top-line growth can support operating leverage and strengthen Oatly’s position across retail and foodservice over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
High Leverage and Negative Equity
High debt combined with negative equity leaves a limited financial cushion and increases dependence on operational improvement or external funding. This balance-sheet weakness can constrain investment flexibility and amplify the impact of continued losses.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth and Raised Guidance
Accelerating sales and the higher full-year outlook indicate stronger demand, broader distribution and improved execution. Sustained top-line growth can support operating leverage and strengthen Oatly’s position across retail and foodservice over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Oatly Group (OTLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$449.32M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)116.47K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.24
Revenue Growth11.40%
EPS Growth36.08%
CountryUS
Employees1,404
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-4.16
Shares Outstanding31,912,258
10 Day Avg. Volume71,074
30 Day Avg. Volume116,466
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)17.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.38
P/FCF Ratio-8.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.17Price Target Upside-13.38% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)$951.85M
Oatly Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Oatly Group AB, a company established in 1994 and based in Malmö, Sweden, specializes in the production of plant-based dairy alternatives. Utilizing oats as its core ingredient, Oatly offers a comprehensive array of food and beverage products, inc...
How the Company Makes Money
Oatly makes money primarily by selling branded oat-based food and beverage products. Its core revenue stream is net sales generated from (1) retail channels, where products are sold to grocery retailers, wholesalers, and distributors that then sel...
Oatly Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 22, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted a strong quarter of top-line momentum, volume-driven growth, gross margin improvement, and clear commercial traction across product innovation, distribution and out-of-home channels—leading management to raise revenue guidance materially. However, persistent cost pressures from the Middle East conflict, elevated SG&A due to deliberate reinvestment, a conservative adjusted EBITDA outlook (maintained toward the low end of the $25M–$35M range), and a continued negative free cash flow outlook for the full year temper the enthusiasm. China remains a mixed picture under strategic review. Overall, positives around growth, margin progress and brand momentum outweigh the remaining operational and macro headwinds.Positive Updates
Top-line Growth and Raised Revenue Guidance
Reported Q2 revenue grew 15.2% year-over-year (12.7% constant currency). Management raised full-year 2026 constant currency revenue guidance to 8%–10% (up from prior 3%–5%).
Negative Updates
Middle East Conflict Cost Pressure
Ongoing cost headwinds from the Middle East conflict (primarily fuel/logistics and packaging) persisted in Q2 and are expected to continue for the remainder of 2026; management is absorbing these costs and has not increased EBITDA guidance to reflect upside.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-line Growth and Raised Revenue Guidance
Reported Q2 revenue grew 15.2% year-over-year (12.7% constant currency). Management raised full-year 2026 constant currency revenue guidance to 8%–10% (up from prior 3%–5%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised 2026 constant‑currency revenue guidance to +8%–10% (from prior +3%–5%) while reiterating adjusted EBITDA guidance toward the low end of the $25–$35 million range; they expect foreign exchange to add roughly 200–250 basis points to reported net sales (vs. prior 100–200 bps), unchanged full‑year cost pressure from the Middle East conflict (primarily fuel/logistics) to be absorbed, CapEx to remain $20–30 million, and do not expect positive free cash flow for full‑year 2026 due to H2 seasoning (inventory build and capex), with the outlook implying a year‑over‑year revenue deceleration in H2 versus H1.Oatly Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
27
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 925.00M | 862.46M | 823.67M | 783.35M | 722.24M | 643.19M |
| Gross Profit | 304.81M | 277.06M | 236.49M | 152.08M | 80.03M | 155.01M |
| EBITDA | -40.98M | -96.35M | -86.13M | -287.79M | -335.15M | -172.15M |
| Net Income | -127.72M | -152.77M | -201.95M | -416.87M | -392.57M | -212.39M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 744.00M | 787.20M | 803.98M | 1.12B | 1.23B | 1.63B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 44.65M | 64.34M | 98.92M | 249.30M | 82.64M | 545.51M |
| Total Debt | 549.06M | 560.24M | 491.45M | 532.84M | 151.70M | 149.21M |
| Total Liabilities | 767.50M | 767.53M | 697.86M | 781.19M | 434.05M | 383.61M |
| Stockholders Equity | -24.47M | 18.55M | 104.69M | 333.99M | 791.14M | 1.25B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -24.41M | -36.12M | -155.62M | -234.67M | -475.11M | -495.43M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -10.28M | -23.72M | -114.43M | -165.63M | -268.95M | -213.83M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -15.81M | -15.54M | -9.25M | -26.70M | 34.79M | -544.33M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.85M | 1.18M | -27.29M | 355.00M | 35.92M | 955.80M |
Oatly Group Technical Analysis
Positive
15.20
Price Trends
12.65
Positive
11.41
Positive
11.34
Positive
Market Momentum
0.47
Positive
51.29
Neutral
10.92
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OTLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.28, above the 50-day MA of 12.65, and above the 200-day MA of 11.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.92 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OTLY.
Oatly Group Risk Analysis
Oatly Group disclosed 77 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Oatly Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Oatly Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $3.16B | 28.76 | 31.09% | ― | 26.10% | 69.15% | |
75 Outperform | $4.21B | 12.16 | 25.26% | 4.86% | 7.67% | 18.60% | |
67 Neutral | $3.02B | 16.45 | 32.19% | 10.44% | -1.73% | -1.71% | |
63 Neutral | $12.60B | 23.49 | -889.19% | 0.53% | 10.71% | 12.43% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
56 Neutral | $105.96M | -10.28 | -19.05% | ― | 7.22% | 42.48% | |
51 Neutral | $449.32M | -3.38 | -3133.06% | ― | 11.40% | 36.08% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
OTLY
Oatly Group
14.08
-3.39
-19.38%
COKE
Coca-Cola Bottling Co Consolidated
189.33
67.50
55.41%
AKO.A
Embotelladora Andina SA
23.40
5.18
28.42%
FIZZ
National Beverage
32.24
-3.28
-9.24%
ZVIA
Zevia PBC
1.37
-1.12
-44.98%
COCO
Vita Coco Company
55.13
16.54
42.86%
Oatly Group Corporate Events
Oatly Lifts 2026 Revenue Outlook After Strong Second Quarter and Board Change
Jul 22, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Oatly reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $240.1 million, up 15.2% year-on-year, or 12.7% in constant currency, led by accelerating growth in Europe International and steady gains in North America and Greater China. Gross ma...
Oatly Posts Revenue Growth but Ongoing Losses in Q2 2026 Filing
Jul 22, 2026
For the three and six months ended June 30, 2026, Oatly reported unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial results showing continued revenue growth but persistent losses. Quarterly revenue rose to $240.1 million from $208.4 million a year...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.