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B&G Foods
(NYSE:BGS)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▼(-28.98% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/07/26
BGS scores below average primarily due to high leverage and shrinking equity alongside continued TTM net losses and declining sales, which outweigh improving cash generation. Technical signals also remain bearish with the stock below key moving averages. Partially offsetting these risks, the latest earnings call showed operational progress and reaffirmed guidance, and valuation is mixed with a very high dividend yield but negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Portfolio mix and margin improvement
Portfolio reshaping is moving the business toward higher-margin brands while reducing working-capital-intensive operations. If sustained, this mix improvement can support stronger gross profit, better earnings quality, and more resilient cash generation even when reported sales are pressured by divestitures.
Negative Factors
High leverage and shrinking equity
Heavy leverage and a much smaller equity base reduce financial flexibility and leave less capacity to absorb operating setbacks or fund strategic initiatives. The capital structure also makes interest obligations more consequential, increasing the importance of sustained cash generation and disciplined allocation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Portfolio mix and margin improvement
Portfolio reshaping is moving the business toward higher-margin brands while reducing working-capital-intensive operations. If sustained, this mix improvement can support stronger gross profit, better earnings quality, and more resilient cash generation even when reported sales are pressured by divestitures.
Read all positive factors
B&G Foods (BGS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$195.06M
Dividend Yield23.75%
Average Volume (3M)2.26M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.09
Revenue Growth-4.91%
EPS Growth68.74%
CountryUS
Employees2,294
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.89
Shares Outstanding81,275,670
10 Day Avg. Volume2,638,146
30 Day Avg. Volume2,259,348
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.09
Price to Book (P/B)0.74
Price to Sales (P/S)0.18
P/FCF Ratio4.73
Enterprise Value/Market Cap11.87
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.31
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.29
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.91
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.20Price Target Upside19.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.73B
B&G Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
B&G Foods, Inc. manufactures, sells, and distributes a portfolio of shelf-stable and frozen foods, and household products in the United States, Canada, and Puerto Rico. It operates through Specialty, Meals, Frozen & Vegetables, and Spices & Flavor...
How the Company Makes Money
B&G Foods makes money primarily by selling branded packaged food products to customers such as grocery retailers, mass merchandisers, club stores, e-commerce retailers, distributors, and (to a lesser extent) foodservice customers. Revenue is gener...
B&G Foods Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated tangible operational progress from portfolio reshaping, margin expansion and cost reductions—evidenced by higher adjusted EBITDA, improved adjusted net income, lower SG&A and the launch of a modestly profitable contract manufacturing business—while also acknowledging meaningful near‑term headwinds including a decline in net sales (driven partly by divestitures and lower base business volumes), specialty segment EBITDA deterioration, significant interest expense from recent refinancing, and nonrecurring restructuring costs. Management reaffirmed full‑year guidance and highlighted strategic initiatives (new CEO, digital/AI focus, disciplined M&A) that support medium‑term improvement. On balance the positives (profitability recovery, margin gains, cost discipline and strategic progress) outweigh the negatives (sales volume weakness, elevated interest costs and one‑time charges), leading to a constructive but cautious view.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Growth and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA of $60.4 million in Q2 FY26, up from $58.0 million in Q2 FY25 (+4.1%), with adjusted EBITDA margin improving to 15.8% of net sales from 13.7% (+210 basis points).
Negative Updates
Overall Net Sales Decline and Base Business Volume Weakness
Q2 FY26 net sales declined $41.1 million or 9.7% to $383.0 million (largely driven by prior divestitures). Base business net sales fell $10.2 million or 2.9% to $346.3 million; base business volume decreased $15.5 million or 4.3%.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Growth and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA of $60.4 million in Q2 FY26, up from $58.0 million in Q2 FY25 (+4.1%), with adjusted EBITDA margin improving to 15.8% of net sales from 13.7% (+210 basis points).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
B&G reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance, calling for net sales of $1.735 billion to $1.775 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $275 million to $290 million (15.8%–16.3% of sales), and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.575 to $0.675; the company also expects full‑year interest expense of $157.5 million to $162.5 million (cash interest $150M–$155M), depreciation of $40M–$45M, amortization of $17M–$19M, cash taxes of approximately $5M or less with an effective tax rate of 26%–27%, and capital expenditures of $30M–$35M (likely at the lower end). Guidance reflects closed transactions (Don Pepino, Le Sueur US and Green Giant US frozen divestitures, the Green Giant US frozen contract manufacturing ramp and the College Inn/Kitchen Basics acquisition), excludes the pending Green Giant Canada sale, assumes fiscal 2026 has one fewer week than 2025 (lapping about $18M of net sales in Q4), and contemplates a base‑business sales posture roughly flat to down ~2% as the company pursues a long‑term 0%–2% base growth objective.B&G Foods Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.77B | 1.83B | 1.93B | 2.06B | 2.16B | 2.06B |
| Gross Profit | 367.75M | 382.06M | 421.95M | 455.52M | 409.62M | 436.97M |
| EBITDA | 145.49M | 191.03M | -85.06M | 172.58M | 203.44M | 297.40M |
| Net Income | -70.84M | -43.26M | -251.25M | -66.20M | -11.37M | 67.36M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.36B | 2.83B | 2.99B | 3.46B | 3.84B | 3.83B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 591.58M | 56.29M | 50.58M | 41.09M | 45.44M | 33.69M |
| Total Debt | 2.58B | 2.00B | 2.08B | 2.12B | 2.46B | 2.34B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.96B | 2.38B | 2.47B | 2.63B | 2.97B | 2.91B |
| Stockholders Equity | 395.07M | 453.22M | 524.81M | 835.46M | 868.17M | 920.25M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 63.90M | 70.75M | 103.65M | 222.07M | -16.32M | 50.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 88.85M | 101.40M | 130.91M | 247.76M | 5.96M | 93.88M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -14.06M | 39.32M | -27.68M | 81.59M | -39.15M | -42.84M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 462.96M | -135.81M | -92.96M | -333.69M | 45.34M | -69.84M |
B&G Foods Technical Analysis
Negative
3.52
Price Trends
3.14
Negative
3.44
Negative
3.99
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.19
Positive
29.78
Positive
15.35
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BGS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.82, above the 50-day MA of 3.14, and below the 200-day MA of 3.99, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.78 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.35 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BGS.
B&G Foods Risk Analysis
B&G Foods disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. B&G Foods reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
B&G Foods Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $12.80B | 55.73 | 4.06% | 3.69% | 5.08% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
54 Neutral | $5.73B | 14.34 | 10.18% | 7.39% | -4.96% | -33.88% | |
53 Neutral | $26.41B | -7.79 | -8.44% | 7.18% | -1.62% | 36.06% | |
52 Neutral | $17.27B | -19.57 | -10.69% | 7.48% | -4.49% | -131.46% | |
47 Neutral | $195.06M | -2.70 | -16.45% | 23.75% | -4.91% | 68.74% | |
47 Neutral | $6.44B | -3.39 | -26.28% | 7.69% | -1.80% | -323.82% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
BGS
B&G Foods
2.40
-1.24
-34.07%
CPB
Campbell Soup
19.21
-8.80
-31.41%
CAG
Conagra Brands
13.49
-3.37
-19.97%
GIS
General Mills
32.29
-13.61
-29.65%
SJM
JM Smucker
119.83
22.35
22.93%
KHC
Kraft Heinz
22.27
-1.23
-5.24%
B&G Foods Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
B&G Foods Retains Green Giant Canada After Deal Termination
Negative
Oct 6, 2026
On October 6, 2026, BG Foods and Nortera Foods announced that they had mutually terminated their October 24, 2025 asset purchase agreement for the sale of Green Giant Canada, after failing to obtain regulatory approval under Canada’s Competi...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
B&G Foods Announces CEO Retirement and Leadership Transition
Neutral
Aug 11, 2026
On August 5, 2026, BG Foods announced that President and CEO Kenneth C. “Casey” Keller would retire effective August 7, 2026, after five years in the role, under a retirement agreement that provides salary continuation, benefits suppor...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
B&G Foods Posts Q2 Profitability Gains Amid Sales Decline
Positive
Aug 11, 2026
BG Foods reported second-quarter 2026 results on August 11, 2026, showing net sales fell 9.7% year over year to $383.3 million, largely due to divestitures of its Green Giant U.S. frozen, Le Sueur U.S. and Don Pepino businesses. However, adjusted ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.