Oatly Group (OTLY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $438.29M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 132.35K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.78
• Revenue Growth: 4.47%
• EPS Growth: 42.22%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,468
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
• EPS (TTM): -0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 30,310,772
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 89,598
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 132,352
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.48
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.54
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.79
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.95
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.09
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -9.50
• 1Y Price Target: $19.00
• Price Target Upside: 28.81% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 40 Neutral
• Price Target: $14.00 ▼(-5.08% Downside)

Oatly's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges and bearish technical indicators. While there are improvements in cost efficiency and margin expansion, these are offset by valuation concerns and regional performance issues, particularly in North America and Greater China.

Positive Factors

Cost Efficiency

Sustained cost efficiency improvements enhance profitability potential, allowing Oatly to manage expenses better and improve margins over time.

Financial Liquidity

Enhanced financial liquidity through new bonds and credit facilities strengthens Oatly's ability to invest in growth and manage debt, supporting long-term stability.

Margin Expansion

Margin expansion indicates improved operational efficiency and pricing power, contributing to better financial performance and competitive positioning.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage poses a risk to financial stability, limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns or interest rate hikes.

Cash Flow Challenges

Persistent cash flow challenges hinder Oatly's ability to fund operations and growth initiatives, potentially impacting long-term sustainability.

Regional Performance Issues

Underperformance in key regions like North America and Greater China can limit growth prospects and strain resources needed for global expansion.

Oatly Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Oatly Group AB, an oatmilk company, provides a range of plant-based dairy products made from oats in Sweden. It offers Barista edition oatmilk, oatgurts, frozen desserts, ice-creams, and yogurts; ready-to-go drinks, such as cold brew latte, mocha latte, matcha latte, and mini oat drink in original and chocolate flavors; and cooking products, including Cooking Cream, in regular and organic, Crème Fraiche, Whipping Cream, Vanilla Custard and Spreads in a variety of flavors. The company was formerly known as Havre Global AB and changed its name to Oatly Group AB in March 2021. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Malmö, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Oatly generates revenue primarily through the sale of its oat-based products across various retail channels, including supermarkets, cafes, and restaurants. The company's revenue model includes direct-to-consumer sales, partnerships with food service providers, and distribution agreements with major retailers. Key revenue streams include sales of oat milk, which is its flagship product, as well as other oat-based offerings. Significant partnerships with major coffee chains and restaurants enhance Oatly's market presence and contribute to earnings. Additionally, Oatly has expanded its product range and entered new markets, further strengthening its revenue potential.

Oatly Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Oatly Group shows steady revenue growth and improving gross profit margins but struggles with profitability, reflected in persistent net losses and negative margins. The high debt-to-equity ratio and negative cash flows indicate financial instability, requiring careful management for long-term sustainability.

Income Statement

Oatly Group has experienced modest revenue growth over the years, with a recent decline in TTM figures. Gross profit margins have improved, but the company continues to face significant net losses, reflected in negative EBIT and EBITDA margins. The net profit margin remains negative, indicating ongoing profitability challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, signaling substantial leverage. However, the equity ratio has improved recently, suggesting better asset management. Return on equity is negative due to persistent net losses, highlighting profitability concerns.

Cash Flow

Oatly's cash flow analysis reveals negative operating and free cash flows, exacerbating concerns about cash management. Although the free cash flow has shown some improvement recently, the operating cash flow to net income ratio remains unfavorable.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	828.20M	823.67M	783.35M	722.24M	643.19M	421.35M
Gross Profit	253.59M	236.49M	152.08M	80.03M	155.01M	129.24M
EBITDA	-82.39M	-86.13M	-287.79M	-335.15M	-172.15M	-32.96M
Net Income	-194.14M	-201.95M	-416.87M	-392.57M	-212.39M	-60.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	803.05M	803.98M	1.12B	1.23B	1.63B	678.93M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	67.93M	98.92M	249.30M	82.64M	545.51M	105.36M
Total Debt	492.61M	491.45M	532.84M	151.70M	149.21M	233.45M
Total Liabilities	706.34M	697.86M	781.19M	434.05M	383.61M	352.84M
Stockholders Equity	95.42M	104.69M	333.99M	791.14M	1.25B	326.09M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-74.89M	-155.62M	-234.67M	-475.11M	-495.43M	-186.04M
Operating Cash Flow	-43.42M	-114.43M	-165.63M	-268.95M	-213.83M	-44.31M
Investing Cash Flow	-20.33M	-9.25M	-26.70M	34.79M	-544.33M	-141.37M
Financing Cash Flow	-15.23M	-27.29M	355.00M	35.92M	955.80M	273.91M

Oatly Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 14.75
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OTLY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.79, below the 50-day MA of 16.90, and above the 200-day MA of 12.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.95 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OTLY.

Oatly Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
COCO	77 Outperform	$2.44B	39.74	24.35%	―	11.97%	16.10%
COKE	75 Outperform	$10.32B	20.09	41.45%	4.95%	3.22%	23.88%
AKO.A	74 Outperform	$3.33B	12.28	24.18%	7.35%	17.01%	11.63%
FIZZ	63 Neutral	$3.46B	18.63	45.84%	―	0.46%	0.91%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
ZVIA	54 Neutral	$176.88M	―	-22.11%	―	-1.08%	54.50%
OTLY	40 Neutral	$438.29M	―	-114.20%	―	4.47%	42.22%

Oatly Group Corporate Events

Oatly Group Enhances Financial Liquidity with New Bonds and Credit Facility

On September 30, 2025, Oatly Group AB announced a series of financial arrangements aimed at refinancing its existing $130 million term loan and enhancing liquidity. The company issued SEK 1,700 million in Nordic Bonds and entered into a SEK 750 million super senior revolving credit facility, both of which are linked to sustainability performance indicators. These moves are expected to provide Oatly with more favorable financial terms and strengthen its market position. Additionally, the company appointed Rhulane Shiburi as an employee representative on its board of directors, reflecting its commitment to inclusive governance.

Oatly Group Announces Nordic Bonds Pricing to Optimize Capital Structure

On September 16, 2025, Oatly Group AB announced the pricing of SEK 1,700 million in senior secured floating rate bonds, known as the Nordic Bonds. The proceeds from these bonds will be used to prepay an existing $130 million term loan and repurchase certain convertible notes, aiming to optimize the company’s capital structure without raising additional financing.

Oatly Group Enhances Financial Flexibility with New Credit Arrangements

Oatly Group AB announced a series of financial maneuvers aimed at refinancing its existing credit facilities and improving liquidity. On September 9, 2025, the company entered into agreements to issue SEK-denominated Nordic Bonds and secured commitments for a SEK 750 million super senior revolving credit facility. Additionally, Oatly plans to repurchase and cancel certain U.S. Notes, enhancing its financial flexibility. These strategic moves are expected to strengthen Oatly’s financial position and support its growth in the competitive plant-based food industry.

Oatly Group Reports Increased Revenue but Faces Significant Losses in Mid-2025

Oatly Group AB reported its interim financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025, showing a slight increase in revenue compared to the same period in 2024. Despite the revenue growth, the company experienced a significant net loss, attributed to high costs of goods sold and increased expenses in research and development, as well as selling, general, and administrative expenses. This financial performance may impact Oatly’s market positioning and investor confidence, as the company continues to navigate challenges in the competitive plant-based food industry.

Oatly Announces Q2 2025 Financial Results and Board Changes

On July 23, 2025, Oatly Group AB announced its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, revealing a 3.0% increase in revenue compared to the previous year, though constant currency revenue slightly decreased by 0.2%. The company is undergoing a strategic review of its Greater China business to enhance growth and value, while also adjusting its 2025 outlook due to slower-than-expected progress in North America and a challenging macro-environment in Greater China. Additionally, Oatly’s board saw changes with the resignation of directors Xin Wang and Lai Shu Tuen-Muk, and the appointment of Nan Li, Wenjie Ma, and Benjamin Black, reflecting strategic shifts influenced by major shareholders China Resources and Verlinvest.