Oatly Group AI Stock Analysis
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Oatly Group (OTLY) AI Stock Analysis
Oatly Group
(NASDAQ:OTLY)
OTLY’s score is held back primarily by weak financial structure and cash generation (high debt, negative equity, and ongoing negative free cash flow), reinforced by bearish technicals (trading below all key moving averages with negative MACD). The latest earnings call adds some support via improving revenue, margins, and positive adjusted EBITDA, but the reduced EBITDA guidance and continued cost inflation/negative free cash flow keep the overall outlook constrained.
Oatly Group (OTLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $259.13M
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 101.09K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- -2.8
- Beta (1Y)
- 1.36
- Revenue Growth
- 12.01%
- EPS Growth
- 61.83%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 1,392
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Sector Strength
- 62
- Industry
- Packaged Foods
Oatly Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Oatly Group AB, a company established in 1994 and based in Malmö, Sweden, specializes in the production of plant-based dairy alternatives. Utilizing oats as its core ingredient, Oatly offers a comprehensive array of food and beverage products, includ...
How the Company Makes Money
Oatly makes money primarily by selling oat-based food and beverage products to customers in retail and foodservice channels. Revenue is generated through wholesale shipments of finished goods (e.g., oat milk and related oat-based products) to grocery...
Oatly Group Earnings Call Summary
The call presented strong underlying operating momentum, including 9.1% revenue growth, positive adjusted EBITDA, substantial growth in Europe and International, North American market-share gains, continued distribution expansion, and a broad innovation pipeline. However, these positives were offset by a significant reduction in adjusted EBITDA guidance, sharply higher North American fuel and freight costs expected to persist into 2027, negative free cash flow, continued Greater China weakness, and the need for pricing actions. Overall, the positive operating trends and growth initiatives were balanced by material profitability, cash-flow, and macroeconomic challenges.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
For full year 2026, Oatly maintained its outlook for constant currency revenue growth of 8% to 10% and full year CapEx in the range of €20 million to €30 million, with a bias to the middle of this range, while reducing adjusted EBITDA guidance from €25 million to €35 million to €16 million to €20 million; on a reported basis, assuming no change for the rest of the year, FX is expected to add approximately 200 to 250 basis points to net sales, free cash flow will not be positive for the full year 2026, and Q4 cash flow is expected to improve relative to Q3 and last year, while Q4 cost inflation in North America is estimated to be in the low double digit percent and US freight to customer per liter sold is expected to be 12.5% higher than the average of H1 2026; incremental pricing is planned in North America effective in the first quarter of 27, Europe pricing is under review, and the company currently projects 2027 to be the worst of 2026 going into 2027 for key cost of goods sold and logistic-like items.
Oatly Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Operations are improving (re-accelerating revenue and materially higher gross margin with narrowing losses), but overall financial quality remains weak due to high leverage, negative stockholders’ equity, and still-negative operating/free cash flow that implies continued reliance on external funding.
Income Statement
34NegativeBalance Sheet
18Very NegativeCash Flow
27Negative| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.17B | 862.46M | 823.67M | 783.35M | 722.24M | 643.19M |
| Gross Profit | 387.79M | 277.06M | 236.49M | 152.08M | 80.03M | 155.01M |
| EBITDA | -28.33M | -96.35M | -86.13M | -288.05M | -335.15M | -172.15M |
| Net Income | -155.18M | -152.77M | -201.95M | -416.87M | -392.57M | -212.39M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 712.71M | 787.20M | 803.98M | 1.12B | 1.23B | 1.63B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 23.32M | 64.34M | 98.92M | 249.30M | 82.64M | 545.51M |
| Total Debt | 551.35M | 560.24M | 491.45M | 532.84M | 151.70M | 149.21M |
| Total Liabilities | 762.54M | 767.53M | 697.86M | 781.19M | 434.05M | 383.61M |
| Stockholders Equity | -50.82M | 18.55M | 104.69M | 333.99M | 791.14M | 1.25B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -42.84M | -36.12M | -155.62M | -234.67M | -475.11M | -495.43M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -20.20M | -23.72M | -114.43M | -165.63M | -268.95M | -213.83M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -23.99M | -15.54M | -9.25M | -26.70M | 34.79M | -544.33M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 149.98K | 1.18M | -27.29M | 355.00M | 35.92M | 955.80M |
Oatly Group Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OTLY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.96 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.91, below the 50-day MA of 11.20, and below the 200-day MA of 11.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OTLY.
Oatly Group Risk Analysis
Oatly Group disclosed 77 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Oatly Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
3 New RisksOatly Group Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
LWAY66Neutral
LSF55Neutral
BYND45Neutral- OTLY45Neutral
BGS44Neutral
HAIN41Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LWAY | 66Neutral | $336.28M | 31.33 | 12.66% | <0.01% | 25.59% | 1.38% |
| Sector * | 62Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% |
| LSF | 55Neutral | $27.20M | -6.41 | -11.36% | ― | 73.26% | -239.94% |
| BYND | 45Neutral | $103.39M | 0.30 | 4385.03% | ― | -12.87% | ― |
| OTLY | 45Neutral | $259.13M | -2.77 | 675.83% | ― | 12.01% | 61.83% |
| BGS | 44Neutral | $216.19M | -3.50 | -20.97% | 15.53% | -2.67% | 66.94% |
| HAIN | 41Neutral | $12.36M | -0.04 | -140.07% | ― | -18.74% | 45.19% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTLY | Oatly Group Ab | 7.96 | -4.93 | -38.25% | |
| BGS | B&G Foods | 3.67 | -0.30 | -7.60% | |
| LWAY | Lifeway Foods | 22.51 | 0.60 | 2.74% | |
| HAIN | The Hain Celestial | 0.13 | -1.26 | -90.43% | |
| BYND | Beyond Meat | 5.92 | -24.38 | -80.46% | |
| LSF | Laird Superfood, Inc. | 2.50 | -0.27 | -9.75% |
Oatly Group Corporate Events
Oatly Posts Strong Q3 Revenue Growth but Trims 2026 Profit Outlook Amid Cost Pressures
On October 28, 2026, Oatly reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $243.1 million, up 9.1% year on year, with constant-currency growth of 8.9% and gross margin expanding to 34.1%. The company reduced its net loss attributable to shareholders to $27.5...
Oatly Narrows Losses as Revenue Climbs in Third Quarter 2026
Oatly Group AB reported its unaudited interim results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026, showing continued revenue growth but persistent losses. Revenue rose to $243.1 million for the third quarter of 2026 from $222.8 million a y...
Oatly Secures Approval for Nordic Bond Prospectus Ahead of Nasdaq Stockholm Listing
On September 24, 2026, Oatly Group AB announced that the prospectus for its SEK 1.7 billion senior secured floating rate Nordic Bonds, originally issued on September 30, 2025, has been approved and registered by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Auth...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 29, 2026