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NatWest Group
(NYSE:NWG)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$18.50
â–²(12.94% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/04/26
The score is primarily driven by mixed financial quality—solid profitability and improving leverage, but inconsistent cash generation and revenue volatility. Valuation is a major positive (very low P/E and strong yield), while the earnings call supports a constructive outlook via reaffirmed/strong guidance and capital strength. Technicals are a modest headwind due to weak near-term trend and soft momentum.
Positive Factors
Lending & deposit growth
Sustained loan and deposit growth increases franchise scale and supports net interest income over the medium term. A larger lending book and stable deposit base reduce funding costs, enable cross-sell, and provide a durable revenue base that underpins structural earnings power and market position.
Negative Factors
Weak and volatile cash generation
Repeated negative or volatile operating/free cash flow weakens financial flexibility and raises dependence on wholesale funding. Over months, this limits the bank's ability to self-fund growth, pay distributions in stress, or invest without external capital, increasing refinancing risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Lending & deposit growth
Sustained loan and deposit growth increases franchise scale and supports net interest income over the medium term. A larger lending book and stable deposit base reduce funding costs, enable cross-sell, and provide a durable revenue base that underpins structural earnings power and market position.
Read all positive factors
NatWest Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Income by Segment
Details the total income generated by each segment, offering a clear view of which parts of the business are contributing most to overall revenue.
Details the total income generated by each segment, offering a clear view of which parts of the business are contributing most to overall revenue.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNatWest Group (NWG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$71.87B
Dividend Yield3.67%
Average Volume (3M)4.34M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.6
Beta (1Y)1.05
Revenue Growth7.21%
EPS Growth26.24%
CountryUS
Employees59,400
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.72
Shares Outstanding3,984,802,200
10 Day Avg. Volume5,916,730
30 Day Avg. Volume4,338,847
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.17
Price to Book (P/B)0.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.89
P/FCF Ratio4.52
Enterprise Value/Market Cap-0.30
Enterprise Value/Revenue-0.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-1.30
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.43
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.20Price Target Upside11.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.96
Revenue Forecast (FY)$24.27B
NatWest Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NatWest Group plc is a leading financial institution that delivers a broad spectrum of banking and financial services to individual customers, businesses, corporations, and institutional clients across the United Kingdom and globally. The company'...
How the Company Makes Money
NatWest Group makes money primarily through banking income streams tied to lending, deposits, and transaction services. A major driver is net interest income: the group earns interest on loans and other interest-earning assets (such as mortgages, ...
NatWest Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive operational and financial performance: strong lending and deposit growth, notable AUM inflows, improved profitability and efficiency, robust capital generation and upgraded income guidance. Management also emphasized strategic progress (Evelyn acquisition, AI‑driven development, climate finance). However, the quarter included notable cautious elements — a GBP 140m macro‑driven provision, mortgage margin headwinds from COVID roll‑offs, some market‑driven AUMA volatility, and short‑term cost lumpiness related to investment and the Evelyn deal. Management framed these as managed risks within a resilient, well‑capitalized franchise.Positive Updates
Strong lending and deposit growth
Customer lending grew 6.6% year‑on‑year to GBP 400bn with GBP 7.3bn of lending growth in Q1 (including GBP 3.3bn mortgages and GBP 3.8bn Commercial & Institutional). Customer deposits grew 2.6% year‑on‑year to GBP 445bn, supporting balance‑sheet growth.
Negative Updates
Additional provisioning and elevated impairment in Q1
Impairment charge of GBP 283m (26bps of loans) in Q1 included an additional GBP 140m provision driven by revised macroeconomic assumptions; underlying impairment excluding the scenario charge was 16bps. ECL balance of GBP 3.7bn with an ECL coverage ratio of 84bps.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong lending and deposit growth
Customer lending grew 6.6% year‑on‑year to GBP 400bn with GBP 7.3bn of lending growth in Q1 (including GBP 3.3bn mortgages and GBP 3.8bn Commercial & Institutional). Customer deposits grew 2.6% year‑on‑year to GBP 445bn, supporting balance‑sheet growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management confirmed updated 2026 guidance with income, excluding notable items and Evelyn Partners, expected at the top end of the GBP 17.2–17.6 billion range (assuming Bank Rate stays at 3.75%), cost guidance around GBP 8.2 billion, and RoTE target unchanged at greater than 17%; they reiterated an expected loan impairment rate below 25 basis points for 2026 and around 200 basis points of capital generation before distributions this year while operating at a CET1 ratio of roughly 13% (Q1 CET1 stood at 14.3% with 65bps capital generation in the quarter). Other metrics supporting the guidance included Q1 income of GBP 4.2bn, cost/income of 46.5%, customer lending up 6.6% y/y to GBP 400bn, deposits up 2.6% to GBP 445bn, CAL growth target of >4% p.a. to 2028, and hedge reinvestment rates of c.3.9% (product hedge) and 4.7% (equity hedge) on average.NatWest Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 29.48B | 28.57B | 24.76B | 16.15B | 12.04B |
| Gross Profit | 16.61B | 14.65B | 14.78B | 13.35B | 10.34B |
| EBITDA | 8.86B | 7.25B | 7.11B | 5.96B | 4.77B |
| Net Income | 5.83B | 4.80B | 4.64B | 3.59B | 3.27B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 714.55B | 707.99B | 692.67B | 720.05B | 781.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 98.23B | 106.93B | 116.47B | 154.98B | 261.23B |
| Total Debt | 71.83B | 65.92B | 60.07B | 55.32B | 58.33B |
| Total Liabilities | 671.94B | 668.61B | 655.49B | 683.56B | 740.19B |
| Stockholders Equity | 42.60B | 39.35B | 37.16B | 36.49B | 41.80B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.79B | 694.00M | -18.99B | -44.24B | 52.79B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.07B | 1.77B | -17.44B | -43.60B | 53.69B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -13.77B | -12.70B | -14.69B | 19.06B | 3.06B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.49B | -1.89B | -6.30B | -10.65B | -2.60B |
NatWest Group Technical Analysis
Positive
16.38
Price Trends
16.06
Positive
15.82
Positive
15.64
Positive
Market Momentum
0.48
Negative
68.40
Neutral
87.71
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NWG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.72, above the 50-day MA of 16.06, and above the 200-day MA of 15.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.71 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NWG.
NatWest Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $140.42B | 11.86 | 18.94% | 3.27% | -10.12% | 13.24% | |
73 Outperform | $328.85B | 15.67 | 12.07% | 4.14% | -6.12% | 12.49% | |
71 Outperform | $89.19B | 12.68 | 12.71% | 4.14% | 10.57% | 19.15% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $71.87B | 7.55 | 14.55% | 3.67% | 7.21% | 26.24% | |
64 Neutral | $202.39B | 11.12 | 15.73% | 1.85% | -14.46% | 36.76% | |
62 Neutral | $92.28B | 11.62 | 9.46% | 1.71% | 12.95% | 21.64% |
* Financial Sector Average
NWG
NatWest Group
17.99
5.72
46.65%
BBVA
Banco Bilbao
24.98
10.18
68.76%
BCS
Barclays
27.27
9.74
55.54%
HSBC
HSBC Holdings
95.81
37.98
65.68%
ING
ING Groep
31.48
10.13
47.44%
SAN
Banco Santander SA
13.81
5.50
66.25%
NatWest Group Corporate Events
NatWest Group CIO Scott Marcar Sells 251,868 Shares in June 2026
Jun 22, 2026
NatWest Group disclosed that on 19 June 2026 its Group Chief Information Officer, Scott Marcar, sold 251,868 ordinary shares in the bank at a price of £6.3449 per share. The transaction, which took place on the London Stock Exchange, was repo...
NatWest Group Issues $1.25 Billion Senior Callable Notes in U.S. Market
Jun 18, 2026
On June 18, 2026, NatWest Group filed a Form 6-K in the U.S. outlining new capital markets activity tied to its automatic shelf registration on Form F-3, reinforcing its access to dollar funding via senior debt. The filing details the framework un...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.