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Noah Holdings
(NYSE:NOAH)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$9.50
â–²(10.72% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/31/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial stability and profitability, reinforced by a constructive earnings update highlighting margin expansion and operational efficiency. Extremely attractive valuation (very low P/E and very high dividend yield) further supports the rating. These positives are tempered by weak technical trend signals and fundamental risks around uneven revenue/cash-flow consistency and execution-sensitive transition dynamics.
Positive Factors
Strong balance sheet
Minimal leverage and substantial liquidity provide resilience through market cycles, support continued investment in technology and international expansion, and reduce refinancing risk for a wealth and asset management business.
Negative Factors
Legacy revenue contraction
Multiple established revenue streams are shrinking simultaneously, while replacement businesses are still scaling. Continued runoff of legacy assets and weaker insurance activity could constrain top-line growth and dilute the benefit of cost savings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong balance sheet
Minimal leverage and substantial liquidity provide resilience through market cycles, support continued investment in technology and international expansion, and reduce refinancing risk for a wealth and asset management business.
Read all positive factors
Noah Holdings (NOAH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$619.60M
Dividend Yield15.26%
Average Volume (3M)83.90K
Price to Earnings (P/E)1.4
Beta (1Y)0.90
Revenue Growth5.95%
EPS Growth6.91%
CountryUS
Employees1,778
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)42.60
Shares Outstanding68,645,760
10 Day Avg. Volume88,163
30 Day Avg. Volume83,904
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.13
Price to Book (P/B)0.10
Price to Sales (P/S)0.38
P/FCF Ratio1.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.50Price Target Upside22.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)9.69
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.71B
Noah Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Noah Holdings Limited, a financial services entity established in 2005 and headquartered in Shanghai, People's Republic of China, specializes in providing comprehensive wealth and asset management solutions. The company primarily caters to high-ne...
How the Company Makes Money
Noah primarily generates revenue by providing wealth management and asset management services to high-net-worth clients. In wealth management, the company earns fees and commissions associated with distributing third-party financial products and p...
Noah Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 25, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly constructive picture: profitability and margins expanded meaningfully driven by disciplined cost reductions and operating efficiency while new AI-enabled operating models (notably the Singapore AI wealth management department) produced tangible proof points — AUM growth, monthly profitability and the ability to grow assets while materially reducing RM headcount. Performance-based income (carry) rebounded strongly in H1 and U.S. dollar-denominated assets and fundraising showed healthy growth. Offsetting these positives are declines in legacy distribution and insurance revenues, flat top-line year-to-date, the lumpy nature of carry, regulatory headwinds and remaining contingent liabilities tied to the legacy Camsing matter. Overall, the highlights around margin expansion, AI proof points and asset growth outweigh the lowlights tied to legacy revenue declines and execution/forecast uncertainty, but the company remains in an execution-sensitive transition.Positive Updates
Quarterly Operating Income and Margin Expansion
Q2 operating income of RMB 216 million, up 34% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 34.8% (up 9.2 percentage points YoY).
Negative Updates
Decline in Distribution and Insurance-Related Income
Net distribution income declined 36% year-over-year in H1; insurance-related product revenue fell 53.8% YoY in H1. One-time commissions were RMB 87 million (down 44.1% YoY) and insurance commissions fell 58.2% YoY in Q2.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Operating Income and Margin Expansion
Q2 operating income of RMB 216 million, up 34% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 34.8% (up 9.2 percentage points YoY).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance reiterated management’s Q1 outlook: they expect full‑year operating margin to remain healthy above 30% (quarterly results may fluctuate) and will prioritize moving from the Singapore proof point to a replicable system—replicating the AI wealth‑management department in Hong Kong and Japan and then expanding into Canada, Australia, the U.K. and Europe—while using AI to deepen investment capabilities and carry realization, strengthen international middle/back‑office infrastructure (e.g., Column Bank partnership) and build an AI‑powered global ecosystem of partners; they will continue high shareholder returns and quarterly disclosure but will not normalize or forecast carry. The guidance is supported by recent metrics: Q2 net revenue RMB 620m, Q2 operating income RMB 216m (34.8% margin), H1 net revenue RMB 1.25b and H1 operating income RMB 452m (36.3% margin); performance‑based income (carry) was RMB 138m in Q2 and RMB 238m in H1 (+364% y/y), H1 fundraising RMB 40.5b (+22.4% y/y) with USD fundraising USD 2.45b (+8.4%, 41% of total), group AUM RMB 140.9b, USD AUM USD 6.5b (+11.7% y/y) and USD AUA USD 9.78b (+7.5% y/y); Singapore AUM rose from <USD100m at launch to >USD400m and raised USD 158m in H1 (+126% y/y) with 92% of clients on AI service and 42% of new AUM from ecosystem partners—all while total headcount fell 17%, overseas RM headcount fell 36.2% y/y even as USD AUM grew 11.7%, operating costs and expenses were down ~11.6% (personnel costs down ~12.7%), cash/short‑term investments ~RMB5.0b with zero interest‑bearing debt, contingent liabilities ~RMB455m and >80% of affected Camsing clients accepting the settlement.Noah Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.65B | 2.61B | 2.60B | 3.29B | 3.10B | 4.29B |
| Gross Profit | 2.38B | 1.39B | 1.25B | 1.84B | 1.66B | 2.12B |
| EBITDA | 848.66M | 933.57M | 790.57M | 1.26B | 1.24B | 1.35B |
| Net Income | 587.38M | 558.86M | 475.44M | 1.01B | 976.57M | 1.31B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.64B | 11.74B | 11.78B | 12.69B | 11.80B | 10.89B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.05B | 5.02B | 5.10B | 5.57B | 4.72B | 3.50B |
| Total Debt | 51.04M | 99.53M | 135.99M | 327.06M | 177.99M | 222.24M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.15B | 1.76B | 1.77B | 2.26B | 2.30B | 2.75B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.49B | 9.83B | 9.95B | 10.31B | 9.41B | 8.04B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 842.47M | 305.16M | 1.16B | 570.19M | -749.38M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 367.26M | 976.61M | 387.34M | 1.32B | 632.90M | 1.52B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 217.90M | 299.45M | -840.82M | -247.14M | 74.29M | -2.57B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.11B | -635.55M | -1.13B | -199.84M | 233.76M | -513.12M |
Noah Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
8.58
Price Trends
8.72
Negative
8.85
Negative
9.20
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.02
Positive
46.29
Neutral
29.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOAH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.64, below the 50-day MA of 8.72, and below the 200-day MA of 9.20, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NOAH.
Noah Holdings Risk Analysis
Noah Holdings disclosed 77 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Noah Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Noah Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $619.60M | 1.35 | 6.00% | 15.92% | 5.95% | 6.91% | |
74 Outperform | $621.10M | 7.70 | 21.39% | 6.58% | 37.63% | 47.35% | |
73 Outperform | $747.70M | 9.43 | 10.54% | 8.86% | 3.27% | -9.84% | |
72 Outperform | $607.95M | 12.92 | 5.40% | 14.73% | -11.34% | -48.35% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $683.02M | 9.27 | 7.45% | 11.90% | -3.92% | -16.93% | |
66 Neutral | $773.88M | 12.02 | 5.79% | 15.29% | -11.58% | -40.72% |
* Financial Sector Average
NOAH
Noah Holdings
8.58
-2.22
-20.53%
FDUS
Fidus Investment
19.70
0.53
2.78%
SLRC
SLR Investment Corp.
12.52
-2.45
-16.38%
BCSF
Bain Capital Specialty Finance
11.93
-1.81
-13.20%
VINP
Vinci Partners Investments
9.48
0.04
0.43%
NCDL
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.
12.31
-1.78
-12.60%
Noah Holdings Corporate Events
Noah Holdings Posts Stronger Profit and Expands AI-Driven Global Platform in H1 2026
Aug 26, 2026
Noah Holdings reported unaudited interim results for the six months ended June 30, 2026, highlighting modest top-line growth but stronger profitability in a volatile macroeconomic and geopolitical environment. Net revenues in the period edged up 0...
Noah Holdings Posts Strong Profit Growth on Cost Controls Despite Softer Q2 2026 Revenues
Aug 25, 2026
Noah Holdings reported unaudited financial results for the second quarter of 2026 on August 26, showing net revenues of RMB619.9 million, down 1.5% year-on-year, as lower one-time insurance commissions and recurring service fees were partly offset...
Noah Holdings Updates Dial-In Details for August 2026 Earnings Call
Aug 17, 2026
Noah Holdings Limited, a Cayman-incorporated private wealth and asset management firm listed in Hong Kong as Noah Holdings Private Wealth and Asset Management Limited, serves high-net-worth and institutional clients with diversified investment and...
Noah Holdings Sets Late-August Board Meeting to Approve Q2 and Interim 2026 Results
Aug 14, 2026
Noah Holdings Private Wealth and Asset Management Limited announced that its board will convene in Hong Kong on August 25, 2026 to review and approve unaudited financial results for the second quarter and first half of 2026. The group plans to pub...
Noah Holdings Cuts Share Count After ADS Buybacks in July 2026
Aug 6, 2026
Noah Holdings reported its monthly share capital movements for the period ended July 31, 2026, showing that its authorised share capital remained unchanged at 1 billion ordinary shares with a total authorised capital of US$50,000. The company conf...
Noah Holdings Adjusts 2025 Final Dividend Per Share After Share Capital Changes
Jul 10, 2026
Noah Holdings has updated its final dividend arrangements for the financial year ended December 31, 2025, following changes in its share capital in late June and early July 2026. After issuing new shares for accelerated vesting on June 27, 2026 an...
Noah Holdings Cancels 9.4 Million Shares After ADS Buybacks, Tightening Equity Base
Jul 9, 2026
Noah Holdings Limited reported a change in its share capital structure in early July 2026, following a series of buybacks executed on the New York Stock Exchange between December 23, 2025 and May 27, 2026. The company disclosed that, as of July 7,...
Noah Holdings Grants Performance-Based RSUs to Support Global Expansion Strategy
Jul 2, 2026
On June 29, 2026, Noah Holdings granted 5,000 restricted share units, representing 50,000 ordinary shares or 10,000 ADSs, to a single employee participant under its 2022 Share Incentive Plan, equal to about 0.015% of its outstanding shares. The aw...
Noah Holdings Boosts Share Capital for Accelerated Vesting as Hong Kong Unit Files June Disclosure
Jun 30, 2026
On June 29, 2026, Noah Holdings Private Wealth and Asset Management Limited reported a 4.5% increase in its ordinary share capital, issuing 15,195,483 new shares under an existing issuance mandate to support accelerated vesting approved at the com...
Noah Holdings Reports Stable Share Capital and Ongoing ADS Buybacks in May 2026 Filing
Jun 5, 2026
Noah Holdings filed its June 2026 Form 6-K, disclosing a monthly return for the period ended May 31, 2026 that showed no change in its authorized or issued share capital, with authorized shares steady at 1 billion and issued ordinary shares at 337...
Noah Holdings Details RSU-Linked Share Issuance and Ongoing Buybacks in June Filing
Jun 3, 2026
Noah Holdings reported on June 3, 2026 that its Hong Kong-listed unit, Noah Holdings Private Wealth and Asset Management Limited, modestly increased its issued share capital on June 2, 2026 by issuing 178,330 new ordinary shares under an existing ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.