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Noah Holdings
(NYSE:NOAH)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$8.00
â–¼(-6.76% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/31/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial stability and profitability, reinforced by a constructive earnings update highlighting margin expansion and operational efficiency. Extremely attractive valuation (very low P/E and very high dividend yield) further supports the rating. These positives are tempered by weak technical trend signals and fundamental risks around uneven revenue/cash-flow consistency and execution-sensitive transition dynamics.
Positive Factors
Strong balance sheet
Very low leverage and substantial liquidity give Noah resilience through market and fundraising volatility. The strong capital base also preserves flexibility to invest in international expansion, technology and client capabilities without relying heavily on external financing.
Negative Factors
Legacy revenue pressure
Declines across distribution, insurance and recurring management fees indicate that legacy revenue streams are contracting faster than replacement businesses are scaling. This creates a durable transition burden and makes sustained top-line growth dependent on successful international and newer-product expansion.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong balance sheet
Very low leverage and substantial liquidity give Noah resilience through market and fundraising volatility. The strong capital base also preserves flexibility to invest in international expansion, technology and client capabilities without relying heavily on external financing.
Read all positive factors
Noah Holdings (NOAH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$518.29M
Dividend Yield18.92%
Average Volume (3M)106.34K
Price to Earnings (P/E)1.1
Beta (1Y)0.96
Revenue Growth4.25%
EPS Growth6.91%
CountryUS
Employees1,778
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)42.65
Shares Outstanding68,645,760
10 Day Avg. Volume109,656
30 Day Avg. Volume106,343
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.13
Price to Book (P/B)0.10
Price to Sales (P/S)0.38
P/FCF Ratio1.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.60Price Target Upside23.54% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)9.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.56B
Noah Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Noah Holdings Limited, a financial services entity established in 2005 and headquartered in Shanghai, People's Republic of China, specializes in providing comprehensive wealth and asset management solutions. The company primarily caters to high-ne...
How the Company Makes Money
Noah primarily generates revenue by providing wealth management and asset management services to high-net-worth clients. In wealth management, the company earns fees and commissions associated with distributing third-party financial products and p...
Noah Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 25, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly constructive picture: profitability and margins expanded meaningfully driven by disciplined cost reductions and operating efficiency while new AI-enabled operating models (notably the Singapore AI wealth management department) produced tangible proof points — AUM growth, monthly profitability and the ability to grow assets while materially reducing RM headcount. Performance-based income (carry) rebounded strongly in H1 and U.S. dollar-denominated assets and fundraising showed healthy growth. Offsetting these positives are declines in legacy distribution and insurance revenues, flat top-line year-to-date, the lumpy nature of carry, regulatory headwinds and remaining contingent liabilities tied to the legacy Camsing matter. Overall, the highlights around margin expansion, AI proof points and asset growth outweigh the lowlights tied to legacy revenue declines and execution/forecast uncertainty, but the company remains in an execution-sensitive transition.Positive Updates
Quarterly Operating Income and Margin Expansion
Q2 operating income of RMB 216 million, up 34% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 34.8% (up 9.2 percentage points YoY).
Negative Updates
Decline in Distribution and Insurance-Related Income
Net distribution income declined 36% year-over-year in H1; insurance-related product revenue fell 53.8% YoY in H1. One-time commissions were RMB 87 million (down 44.1% YoY) and insurance commissions fell 58.2% YoY in Q2.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Operating Income and Margin Expansion
Q2 operating income of RMB 216 million, up 34% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 34.8% (up 9.2 percentage points YoY).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance reiterated management’s Q1 outlook: they expect full‑year operating margin to remain healthy above 30% (quarterly results may fluctuate) and will prioritize moving from the Singapore proof point to a replicable system—replicating the AI wealth‑management department in Hong Kong and Japan and then expanding into Canada, Australia, the U.K. and Europe—while using AI to deepen investment capabilities and carry realization, strengthen international middle/back‑office infrastructure (e.g., Column Bank partnership) and build an AI‑powered global ecosystem of partners; they will continue high shareholder returns and quarterly disclosure but will not normalize or forecast carry. The guidance is supported by recent metrics: Q2 net revenue RMB 620m, Q2 operating income RMB 216m (34.8% margin), H1 net revenue RMB 1.25b and H1 operating income RMB 452m (36.3% margin); performance‑based income (carry) was RMB 138m in Q2 and RMB 238m in H1 (+364% y/y), H1 fundraising RMB 40.5b (+22.4% y/y) with USD fundraising USD 2.45b (+8.4%, 41% of total), group AUM RMB 140.9b, USD AUM USD 6.5b (+11.7% y/y) and USD AUA USD 9.78b (+7.5% y/y); Singapore AUM rose from <USD100m at launch to >USD400m and raised USD 158m in H1 (+126% y/y) with 92% of clients on AI service and 42% of new AUM from ecosystem partners—all while total headcount fell 17%, overseas RM headcount fell 36.2% y/y even as USD AUM grew 11.7%, operating costs and expenses were down ~11.6% (personnel costs down ~12.7%), cash/short‑term investments ~RMB5.0b with zero interest‑bearing debt, contingent liabilities ~RMB455m and >80% of affected Camsing clients accepting the settlement.Noah Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.61B | 2.61B | 2.60B | 3.29B | 3.10B | 4.29B |
| Gross Profit | 2.09B | 1.39B | 1.25B | 1.84B | 1.66B | 2.12B |
| EBITDA | 849.58M | 933.57M | 790.57M | 1.26B | 1.24B | 1.35B |
| Net Income | 588.04M | 558.86M | 475.44M | 1.01B | 976.57M | 1.31B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.64B | 11.74B | 11.78B | 12.69B | 11.80B | 10.89B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.05B | 5.02B | 5.10B | 5.57B | 4.72B | 3.50B |
| Total Debt | 51.04M | 99.53M | 135.99M | 327.06M | 177.99M | 222.24M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.15B | 1.76B | 1.77B | 2.26B | 2.30B | 2.75B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.33B | 9.83B | 9.95B | 10.31B | 9.41B | 8.04B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 842.47M | 305.16M | 1.16B | 570.19M | -749.38M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 367.26M | 976.61M | 387.34M | 1.32B | 632.90M | 1.52B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 217.90M | 299.45M | -840.82M | -247.14M | 74.29M | -2.57B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.11B | -635.55M | -1.13B | -199.84M | 233.76M | -513.12M |
Noah Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
8.58
Price Trends
8.05
Negative
8.41
Negative
8.98
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.30
Positive
23.00
Positive
12.12
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOAH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.53, above the 50-day MA of 8.05, and below the 200-day MA of 8.98, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 23.00 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.12 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NOAH.
Noah Holdings Risk Analysis
Noah Holdings disclosed 77 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Noah Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Noah Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $737.06M | 8.87 | 21.39% | 5.84% | 37.63% | 47.35% | |
77 Outperform | $2.55B | 15.94 | 252.74% | 3.86% | 7.62% | 34.86% | |
76 Outperform | $518.29M | 1.08 | 6.03% | 18.92% | 4.25% | 6.91% | |
72 Outperform | $4.62B | 12.44 | 31.02% | 2.76% | 24.01% | 25.97% | |
69 Neutral | $1.97B | 26.43 | 12.08% | 5.25% | 8.83% | -19.42% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
54 Neutral | $5.18B | -5.50 | 156.73% | 4.05% | 51.09% | -150.23% |
* Financial Sector Average
NOAH
Noah Holdings
7.01
-3.02
-30.07%
HLNE
Hamilton Lane
85.31
-30.83
-26.54%
GCMG
GCM Grosvenor
12.62
1.43
12.82%
STEP
StepStone Group
43.47
-16.97
-28.08%
PAX
Patria Investments
11.90
-1.98
-14.30%
VINP
Vinci Partners Investments
11.46
0.94
8.96%
Noah Holdings Corporate Events
Noah Holdings Reports No Share Capital Changes in September 2026 Monthly Return
Oct 8, 2026
Noah Holdings Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in October 2026, reporting its monthly return for equity securities and Hong Kong depositary receipts for the month ended 30 September 2026. The filing, signed...
Noah Holdings Files 2026 Interim Report with U.S. SEC
Sep 15, 2026
Noah Holdings Limited, a Hong Kong-listed private wealth and asset management firm serving high-net-worth investors, maintains principal executive operations in Singapore and is incorporated in the Cayman Islands, reflecting its cross-border corpo...
Noah Holdings Reports Stable Share Capital and Full Compliance in August 2026 HKEX Return
Sep 4, 2026
On September 4, 2026, Noah Holdings Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and submitted a monthly return to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange covering movements in its securities for the month ended August 31, 2026. ...
Noah Holdings Posts Stronger Profit and Expands AI-Driven Global Platform in H1 2026
Aug 26, 2026
Noah Holdings reported unaudited interim results for the six months ended June 30, 2026, highlighting modest top-line growth but stronger profitability in a volatile macroeconomic and geopolitical environment. Net revenues in the period edged up 0...
Noah Holdings Posts Strong Profit Growth on Cost Controls Despite Softer Q2 2026 Revenues
Aug 25, 2026
Noah Holdings reported unaudited financial results for the second quarter of 2026 on August 26, showing net revenues of RMB619.9 million, down 1.5% year-on-year, as lower one-time insurance commissions and recurring service fees were partly offset...
Noah Holdings Updates Dial-In Details for August 2026 Earnings Call
Aug 17, 2026
Noah Holdings Limited, a Cayman-incorporated private wealth and asset management firm listed in Hong Kong as Noah Holdings Private Wealth and Asset Management Limited, serves high-net-worth and institutional clients with diversified investment and...
Noah Holdings Sets Late-August Board Meeting to Approve Q2 and Interim 2026 Results
Aug 14, 2026
Noah Holdings Private Wealth and Asset Management Limited announced that its board will convene in Hong Kong on August 25, 2026 to review and approve unaudited financial results for the second quarter and first half of 2026. The group plans to pub...
Noah Holdings Cuts Share Count After ADS Buybacks in July 2026
Aug 6, 2026
Noah Holdings reported its monthly share capital movements for the period ended July 31, 2026, showing that its authorised share capital remained unchanged at 1 billion ordinary shares with a total authorised capital of US$50,000. The company conf...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.