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Patria Investments
(NASDAQ:PAX)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$12.50
â–²(6.11% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:10/10/26
The score is driven primarily by solid but mixed financial performance: strong underlying margins and meaningful free cash flow are tempered by weaker recent net profitability and a notable step-up in leverage. Earnings-call commentary is a key positive, with reiterated guidance and strong fundraising/AUM momentum improving forward visibility. Technicals are supportive (price above most DMAs, positive MACD), while valuation is only moderately attractive given a ~25 P/E despite a high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Fee-earning AUM growth
Rapid growth in fee-earning AUM expands Patria’s recurring management-fee base and improves revenue visibility. Pending AUM provides an additional pipeline for future fees, while scale across strategies can support continued fundraising and strengthen the platform’s competitive position.
Negative Factors
Higher financial leverage
The sharp increase in leverage reduces financial flexibility and makes Patria more sensitive to earnings volatility, interest costs and refinancing needs. Higher obligations may constrain future acquisitions, buybacks or distributions if operating performance weakens across the asset-management cycle.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Fee-earning AUM growth
Rapid growth in fee-earning AUM expands Patria’s recurring management-fee base and improves revenue visibility. Pending AUM provides an additional pipeline for future fees, while scale across strategies can support continued fundraising and strengthen the platform’s competitive position.
Read all positive factors
Patria Investments (PAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.97B
Dividend Yield5.25%
Average Volume (3M)1.18M
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.4
Beta (1Y)1.08
Revenue Growth8.83%
EPS Growth-19.42%
CountryUS
Employees548
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.45
Shares Outstanding71,004,840
10 Day Avg. Volume1,157,628
30 Day Avg. Volume1,182,054
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.98
Price to Book (P/B)4.10
Price to Sales (P/S)6.54
P/FCF Ratio9.72
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.08
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.97
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.58
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.98
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.00Price Target Upside-6.62% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)$430.31M
Patria Investments Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm. It specializes in investments in private equity, secondary direct and indirect and venture capital with focus in middle market, buyout and growth capital investments. It seek...
How the Company Makes Money
Patria primarily makes money by managing investment funds and earning fees tied to those assets. Its key revenue streams typically include: (1) Management fees: recurring fees charged (generally as a percentage of assets under management or commit...
Patria Investments Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted robust fundraising, substantial AUM growth, strong fee and distributable earnings growth, and outperformance across key strategies (credit, infrastructure, GPMS), providing clear visibility into future fee growth. Offsetting this, legacy private equity vintages required markdowns, earnings margin was modestly compressed in 2026 due to lower-margin acquisitions and elevated near-term transaction/integration costs, and there were one-time equity impacts from put-option obligations. On balance, the positive commercial momentum and recurring fee growth materially outweigh the contained, largely explainable challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Fundraising Momentum
Raised $2.3 billion in Q2; year-to-date fundraising $4.5 billion. On track to exceed 2026 target of $7 billion and potentially surpass 2025 record of $7.7 billion and 3-year target of $21 billion.
Negative Updates
Private Equity Vintage Underperformance and Markdowns
Older private equity Funds IV and V (together < $2 billion AUM) underperformed and were marked down this quarter due to prolonged high interest rates in Brazil, post-COVID macro adversities and sector-specific shocks; Fund IV generated no management fees for the last 2 years and both Funds IV & V have no accrued performance fees since Q4'25.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Fundraising Momentum
Raised $2.3 billion in Q2; year-to-date fundraising $4.5 billion. On track to exceed 2026 target of $7 billion and potentially surpass 2025 record of $7.7 billion and 3-year target of $21 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Patria maintained confident guidance: Q2 fundraising was $2.3bn (YTD $4.5bn) toward a full‑year fundraising target of $7.0bn (2025 record $7.7bn) and a 2025–2027 target of $21bn; fee‑earning AUM stood at $48.9bn (+≈7% q/q, +32% y/y) with $4.0bn of pending fee‑earning AUM (+≈20% q/q) and ~$11bn of permanent capital (~22% of fee‑earning AUM). Q2 fee‑related earnings (FRE) were $57.1m (+13% q/q, +24% y/y), YTD FRE $108m, and management reiterated 2026 FRE guidance of $225–245m ($1.42–1.54/sh) and a 2027 FRE target of $260–290m ($1.60–1.80/sh); FRE margin was 54% in Q2 (vs 54.6%) and is now expected modestly below the 58–60% 2026 target but to return to 58–60% in 2027. Other notable metrics: total fee revenues Q2 ~$105.8m (+30% y/y), distributable earnings Q2 $50.7m (or $0.32/sh, +31% y/y), LTM average management fee ≈86bps, Q2 effective tax rate ~9%, transaction costs $11m in Q2 (expected ~$7–8m in Q3/Q4 and to fall significantly in 2027), $350m bond issued, share count 159.5m (target 158–160m), TRS repurchases 1.5m shares ($18.3m) and Solis/credit fundraising momentum (Solis >$500m raised; credit >$650m in Q2, YTD ~$1.6bn).Patria Investments Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 430.35M | 383.80M | 374.20M | 327.62M | 258.88M | 235.51M |
| Gross Profit | 383.41M | 369.20M | 323.72M | 288.88M | 224.05M | 220.88M |
| EBITDA | 178.39M | 177.65M | 133.22M | 146.36M | 125.46M | 131.35M |
| Net Income | 69.99M | 85.60M | 71.88M | 118.40M | 92.96M | 122.48M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.83B | 1.50B | 1.21B | 1.01B | 976.24M | 761.32M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 113.46M | 88.71M | 38.37M | 33.20M | 72.06M | 167.13M |
| Total Debt | 445.21M | 198.68M | 250.41M | 15.84M | 16.09M | 7.86M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.19B | 861.69M | 715.17M | 490.24M | 462.78M | 197.04M |
| Stockholders Equity | 563.59M | 611.75M | 481.08M | 542.49M | 552.79M | 564.28M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 148.40M | 258.31M | 137.66M | 141.71M | 74.34M | 105.72M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 167.82M | 268.87M | 145.95M | 156.72M | 81.05M | 107.56M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -50.52M | 2.30M | 25.31M | 62.17M | -189.35M | -284.23M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -86.11M | -254.46M | -151.65M | -229.63M | 118.55M | 177.89M |
Patria Investments Technical Analysis
Positive
11.78
Price Trends
11.05
Positive
11.03
Positive
11.95
Negative
Market Momentum
0.33
Negative
64.81
Neutral
82.18
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PAX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.08, above the 50-day MA of 11.05, and below the 200-day MA of 11.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.18 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PAX.
Patria Investments Risk Analysis
Patria Investments disclosed 92 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Patria Investments reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Climate change can create transition risks, physical risks and other risks that could adversely affect us. Q4, 2023
Patria Investments Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $737.06M | 8.87 | 21.39% | 5.84% | 37.63% | 47.35% | |
70 Outperform | $17.07B | 36.13 | 18.59% | 5.08% | 29.91% | 507.73% | |
69 Neutral | $1.97B | 26.43 | 12.08% | 5.25% | 8.83% | -19.42% | |
68 Neutral | $38.65B | 51.10 | 15.20% | 4.42% | 33.64% | 22.53% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
57 Neutral | $13.29B | 36.81 | 6.07% | 3.76% | -44.06% | -71.02% | |
54 Neutral | $5.18B | -5.50 | 156.73% | 4.05% | 51.09% | -150.23% |
* Financial Sector Average
PAX
Patria Investments
11.90
-1.98
-14.30%
CG
Carlyle Group
39.20
-16.78
-29.98%
ARES
Ares Management
123.70
-18.83
-13.21%
STEP
StepStone Group
43.47
-16.97
-28.08%
VINP
Vinci Partners Investments
11.46
0.94
8.96%
TPG
TPG
46.17
-7.22
-13.52%
Patria Investments Corporate Events
Patria Investments Posts Strong H1 2026 Revenue but Lower Profit in Latest 6-K
Oct 7, 2026
Patria Investments Limited reported unaudited interim financial results for the three- and six-month periods ended June 30, 2026, in a Form 6-K filed on October 7, 2026. Net revenue from services rose to $111.3 million in the second quarter and $2...
Patria Investments Sets October 26 AGM to Approve 2025 Accounts and Confirm New Directors
Oct 6, 2026
Patria Investments Limited has called its 2026 Annual General Meeting of shareholders for October 26, 2026, to be held virtually and at its Grand Cayman offices, with shareholders of record as of September 22, 2026 entitled to participate and vote...
Patria Investments Names Former CFO Ana Cristina Russo as Interim Director After Board Resignation
Sep 29, 2026
Patria Investments Limited reported changes to its board of directors dated September 3, 2026, formalized in a September 28, 2026 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The Cayman Islands‑based alternative asset manager, li...
Patria Investments Posts Strong Q2 2026 Earnings and Fundraising Momentum
Jul 31, 2026
Patria Investments reported unaudited financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, showing strong growth in fundraising and fee‑related performance. Management highlighted that the quarter’s performance keeps the firm ...
Patria Investments Reports Higher Q1 2026 Revenue and Expanding Balance Sheet
Jul 28, 2026
Patria Investments Limited, a Cayman Islands-based alternative asset manager, reported unaudited condensed consolidated interim financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, in a Form 6-K filed in July 2026. Total assets rose to $1.78 bi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.