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NMI Holdings
(NASDAQ:NMIH)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$48.00
▲(7.12% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/01/26
The score is supported primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability, solid growth, healthy leverage and cash conversion) and an attractive low P/E valuation, reinforced by a constructive earnings call (record results and strong capital/buybacks). These positives are partially offset by very weak technicals, with the stock trading below key moving averages and showing strong negative momentum despite oversold readings.
Positive Factors
Growing insured portfolio
Strong new insurance written and record insurance in force show continued demand for NMIH’s mortgage protection and expanding scale. A larger insured portfolio can support recurring premium generation and deepen relationships across the lender ecosystem over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Higher future default exposure
An expected increase in defaults could raise claims and loss-adjustment expenses as the insured book seasons and tax-related payment dynamics reverse. Even with pricing, risk selection, and reinsurance, higher delinquencies can pressure underwriting results over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Growing insured portfolio
Strong new insurance written and record insurance in force show continued demand for NMIH’s mortgage protection and expanding scale. A larger insured portfolio can support recurring premium generation and deepen relationships across the lender ecosystem over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
NMI Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Primary Insurance In-Force
Total outstanding mortgage insurance coverage the company currently guarantees. Size and trends in in-force reflect the scale of future premium income and the company’s exposure to borrower defaults—growing in-force suggests expansion, while declines signal shrinking business or tighter underwriting.
Total outstanding mortgage insurance coverage the company currently guarantees. Size and trends in in-force reflect the scale of future premium income and the company’s exposure to borrower defaults—growing in-force suggests expansion, while declines signal shrinking business or tighter underwriting.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNMI Holdings (NMIH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.25B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)879.37K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.4
Beta (1Y)0.53
Revenue Growth7.53%
EPS Growth7.71%
CountryUS
Employees225
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.17
Shares Outstanding75,217,850
10 Day Avg. Volume1,048,030
30 Day Avg. Volume879,368
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.73
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)4.49
P/FCF Ratio7.68
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.88
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.32
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.53
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$48.83Price Target Upside8.98% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)5.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)$632.47M
NMI Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NMI Holdings, Inc. is a company operating within the United States that offers private mortgage guaranty insurance. In addition to its core insurance products, the firm also delivers outsourced loan assessment services, specifically catering to mo...
How the Company Makes Money
NMIH makes money primarily by underwriting and servicing private mortgage insurance policies that cover a portion of losses if an insured residential mortgage defaults. Its core revenue stream is insurance premiums (often referred to as “earned pr...
NMI Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call reported multiple record operational and financial achievements — including record revenue, adjusted net income, NIW, and insurance in force — alongside improving expense efficiency, strong investment income, robust capital metrics, and continued buybacks. The primary negatives were modest: a small decline in 12-month persistency, expected seasonal increases in defaults later in the year, and localized housing pressure in some markets. Management emphasized proactive risk management (pricing, selection, reinsurance) and balance-sheet strength, signaling confidence in their runway. Overall, positive operational momentum and strong capital positions materially outweigh the manageable headwinds mentioned.Positive Updates
Record revenue and profitability
Total revenue was a record $187.9 million (up 2.4% vs Q1 and up 8.1% YoY). Adjusted net income was a record $106.0 million, or $1.38 per diluted share (up 7% vs Q1 and up 10% YoY). Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.38 (up 8% vs Q1 and up 14% YoY). Return on equity was 15.9%.
Negative Updates
Slight decline in 12-month persistency
12-month persistency slipped to 81.4% in Q2 from 82.2% in Q1 (down 0.8 percentage points), indicating a modest deterioration in renewal retention.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record revenue and profitability
Total revenue was a record $187.9 million (up 2.4% vs Q1 and up 8.1% YoY). Adjusted net income was a record $106.0 million, or $1.38 per diluted share (up 7% vs Q1 and up 10% YoY). Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.38 (up 8% vs Q1 and up 14% YoY). Return on equity was 15.9%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated forward-looking confidence while emphasizing a prudent, proactive stance on pricing, risk selection and reinsurance and expecting continued outperformance, citing Q2 metrics: $16.0 billion NIW, $227.1 billion primary insurance in force (>$500 billion insurance ever written), ~2.2 million borrowers helped, ~1,700 lenders served, total revenue $187.9 million, net premiums earned $157.5 million, adjusted net income $106.0 million ($1.38 adjusted diluted EPS), 15.9% ROE, net yield 28 bps and core yield 34 bps, investment income $30.3 million, underwriting & operating expenses $30.5 million (expense ratio 19.4%), 8,020 defaults (default rate 1.16%), claims $13.1 million, shareholders’ equity $2.7 billion, book value per share $35.89 ($36.88 ex‑unrealized gains, +4% q/q, +15% y/y), $31.4 million repurchased in the quarter (827k shares at $37.99) with $408 million repurchased since 2022 (13.6M shares, avg $29.95) and $167 million repurchase capacity remaining, and PMIERs available assets $3.7 billion vs. required $2.1 billion (excess $1.6 billion); they noted defaults may trend modestly higher seasonally into Q3/Q4 and see an attractive sustained new‑business opportunity, with no near‑term material impact expected from recent housing legislation.NMI Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 730.52M | 705.58M | 650.97M | 579.00M | 524.46M | 485.64M |
| Gross Profit | 669.97M | 647.93M | 618.70M | 555.61M | 526.96M | 470.82M |
| EBITDA | 545.69M | 539.54M | 512.24M | 456.46M | 421.34M | 339.75M |
| Net Income | 395.33M | 388.93M | 360.11M | 322.11M | 292.90M | 231.13M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.00B | 3.84B | 3.35B | 2.94B | 2.52B | 2.45B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 72.12M | 448.37M | 54.22M | 95.35M | 42.25M | 2.16B |
| Total Debt | 418.02M | 417.03M | 415.15M | 397.60M | 396.05M | 394.62M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.29B | 1.25B | 1.13B | 1.01B | 902.30M | 884.79M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.71B | 2.59B | 2.22B | 1.93B | 1.61B | 1.57B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 441.61M | 412.52M | 386.70M | 333.31M | 302.82M | 313.48M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 448.51M | 419.30M | 393.60M | 342.68M | 313.39M | 325.72M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -331.03M | -316.47M | -339.29M | -200.00M | -289.79M | -374.18M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -129.37M | -113.20M | -96.70M | -90.42M | -55.83M | -1.83M |
NMI Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
44.81
Price Trends
42.32
Positive
42.03
Positive
40.21
Positive
Market Momentum
0.28
Negative
60.98
Neutral
76.70
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NMIH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 44.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.80, above the 50-day MA of 42.32, and above the 200-day MA of 40.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NMIH.
NMI Holdings Risk Analysis
NMI Holdings disclosed 4 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NMI Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NMI Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | $6.61B | 10.08 | 12.76% | 1.87% | 2.49% | 7.73% | |
79 Outperform | $4.72B | 9.01 | 11.26% | 2.86% | 27.93% | -2.18% | |
78 Outperform | $6.08B | 9.35 | 11.91% | 2.01% | 4.47% | 4.26% | |
77 Outperform | $3.25B | 8.35 | 15.14% | ― | 7.53% | 7.71% | |
74 Outperform | $6.51B | 8.95 | 13.33% | 3.55% | 14.14% | 52.69% | |
72 Outperform | $5.92B | 8.99 | 13.90% | 2.15% | -1.88% | 4.83% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
NMIH
NMI Holdings
43.18
6.83
18.79%
FAF
First American Financial
63.72
4.13
6.92%
MTG
MGIC Investment
28.85
1.96
7.27%
RDN
Radian Group
35.68
2.91
8.88%
ESNT
Essent Group
67.60
8.25
13.90%
ACT
Enact Holdings
48.06
13.30
38.25%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.