Nisource (NI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $18.40B
• Dividend Yield: 2.79%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.85M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.39
• Revenue Growth: 13.08%
• EPS Growth: 17.47%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,687
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 83
• Industry: Regulated Gas
• EPS (TTM): 0.98
• Shares Outstanding: 470,702,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,789,667
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,846,646
• PEG Ratio: -10.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.14
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -21.57
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.76
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.53
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.14
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.36
• 1Y Price Target: $43.56
• Price Target Upside: 11.46% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

NiSource presents a mixed outlook with strong financial performance and strategic initiatives enhancing operational efficiency. The earnings call highlighted significant growth but also noted regulatory challenges. Technical indicators suggest cautious optimism, while valuation metrics indicate the stock is fairly priced. The overall score reflects these strengths and challenges, with cash flow management and regulatory hurdles as key areas to monitor.

Positive Factors

Earnings

NI delivered another better-than-expected quarter and raised its 2025 full-year guidance.

Growth Prospects

Indiana load growth related to data centers represents considerable upside.

Regulatory Support

Regulatory/policy treatment is viewed as supportive, with potential approval of the IN Genco & SB 103 seen as incremental positive data points on the business-friendly nature of the company’s largest jurisdictions.

Negative Factors

Ratepayer Risks

Management expanded on the benefits of its NIPSCO GenCo filing, offering speed and flexibility to hyperscaler customers while isolating risk and rate increases away from current residential and C&I ratepayers.

Regulatory Challenges

Analyst looks for more parties to join the settlement to bolster likelihood of adoption by the Indiana Utilities Regulatory Commission.

Settlement Uncertainty

Big step toward successful resolution; still work to do.

Nisource Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NiSource Inc., an energy holding company, operates as a regulated natural gas and electric utility company in the United States. It operates through two segments, Gas Distribution Operations and Electric Operations. The company distributes natural gas to approximately 853,000 customers in northern Indiana, as well as approximately 2.4 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, and Maryland. It operates approximately 54,600 miles of distribution main pipelines, as well as associated individual customer service lines; and 1,000 miles of transmission main pipelines. The company generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to approximately 483,000 customers in 20 counties in the northern part of Indiana, as well as engages in wholesale electric and transmission transactions. It owns and operates coal-fired electric generating stations with a capacity of 722 megawatts (MW) in Wheatfield and 455 MW in Michigan City; combined cycle gas turbine with a capacity of 563 MW in West Terre Haute; natural gas generating units with a capacity of 155 MW in Wheatfield; hydro generating plants with a capacity of 9 MW in Carroll County and 7 MW in White County; and wind generating units with a capacity of 102 MW and 302 MW in White County, Indiana. The company was formerly known as NIPSCO Industries, Inc. and changed its name to NiSource Inc. in April 1999. NiSource Inc. was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Merrillville, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

NiSource makes money through the regulated distribution and transmission of natural gas and electricity. Its revenue model is based on providing utility services to its customer base, which includes residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. The company earns income through rate-regulated tariffs set by state public utility commissions, which ensure recovery of costs and an allowed rate of return on investments. Key revenue streams include natural gas distribution operations across several states and electric utility services in northern Indiana. NiSource also invests in infrastructure projects, such as pipeline and grid modernization, which are factored into the rate base and contribute to future earnings. Additionally, the company benefits from regulatory mechanisms that support revenue stability and growth, such as decoupling and rate adjustment mechanisms.

Nisource Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nisource demonstrates stable profitability with improving net profit margins and robust operational efficiency. However, concerns exist due to negative free cash flow trends and a significant decrease in total assets for 2024, necessitating further scrutiny.

Income Statement

Nisource has demonstrated a stable income profile with improving net profit margins from 6.9% in 2019 to 13.9% in 2024. Despite a slight decline in revenue over the past year, the company has maintained a consistent gross profit margin around 70% over the years. This indicates a strong ability to manage costs effectively. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust, signifying operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33 in 2024, a significant improvement from previous years. The equity ratio has strengthened over time, reaching 89% in 2024, indicating a solid capital structure. However, the total assets have decreased significantly in 2024 due to changes in reporting, which could be a cause for concern if not clarified.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals some challenges, particularly with free cash flow, which has fluctuated negatively over the years. Although operating cash flow has shown stability, the free cash flow remains negative, highlighting the need for better capital expenditure management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio was unavailable for 2024, limiting complete cash flow assessment.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
5.46B	5.51B	5.85B	4.90B	4.68B
	Gross Profit
2.81B	2.49B	2.25B	2.05B	1.99B
	EBIT
1.46B	1.30B	1.27B	1.01B	976.30M
	EBITDA
2.56B	2.21B	2.14B	1.80B	1.07B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
760.40M	714.30M	804.10M	584.90M	-14.20M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
156.60M	2.25B	40.80M	84.20M	116.50M
	Total Assets
31.79B	31.08B	26.74B	24.16B	22.04B
	Total Debt
13.96B	14.13B	11.66B	9.80B	9.75B
	Net Debt
13.80B	11.88B	11.62B	9.72B	9.63B
	Total Liabilities
21.12B	20.94B	18.83B	16.88B	16.20B
	Stockholders Equity
8.68B	8.27B	7.58B	6.95B	5.75B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-861.50M	-710.70M	-793.70M	-620.10M	-654.10M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.78B	1.94B	1.41B	1.22B	1.10B
	Investing Cash Flow
-3.11B	-3.57B	-2.57B	-2.20B	-879.10M
	Financing Cash Flow
-651.00M	3.84B	1.14B	956.30M	-247.70M

Nisource Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 39.08
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.03, above the 50-day MA of 38.90, and above the 200-day MA of 36.05, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NI.

Nisource Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SR	73 Outperform	$4.33B	18.09	7.30%	4.20%	-7.10%	2.54%
UGI	73 Outperform	$7.61B	14.61	10.84%	4.23%	-4.30%	―
NJR	71 Outperform	$4.68B	11.30	17.83%	3.80%	20.30%	63.69%
NI	70 Neutral	$18.40B	21.06	10.34%	2.79%	13.08%	17.47%
ATO	68 Neutral	$25.05B	22.01	9.18%	2.12%	10.60%	8.55%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$8.53B	10.18	4.66%	4.38%	3.77%	-12.97%
SWX	61 Neutral	$4.96B	22.13	6.49%	3.59%	-10.78%	16.27%

Nisource Corporate Events

NiSource Stockholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

At the Annual Meeting held on May 12, 2025, NiSource stockholders voted on several key proposals. All nominated directors were elected, and the advisory approval of executive compensation was passed. The appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025 was ratified. However, a stockholder proposal to improve special shareholder meetings was not approved.

The most recent analyst rating on (NI) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nisource stock, see the NI Stock Forecast page.

Spark’s Take on NI Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, NI is a Outperform.

Nisource’s overall score of 71 reflects strong financial performance and positive stock momentum, tempered by concerns over cash flow challenges and high valuation. The earnings call provided optimistic future guidance, balancing regulatory and operational challenges.

To see Spark’s full report on NI stock, click here.