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Nisource
(NYSE:NI)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$50.00
â–²(3.50% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/19/26
The score is driven primarily by steady regulated-utility profitability but meaningfully weighed down by high leverage and persistently negative free cash flow. The earnings call was constructive (reaffirmed near-term guidance and improved long-term growth outlook tied to signed data-center contracts), while technical indicators point to weaker near-term price momentum. Valuation (low P/E and a ~2.5% yield) provides a partial offset.
Positive Factors
Regulated revenue & margins
NiSource’s core regulated utility model generates steady, rate‑based returns and resilient margins. Stable net and operating margins reflect franchised revenue recovery via regulators, supporting durable cash flow generation tied to long‑lived infrastructure and predictable rate base growth.
Negative Factors
High leverage
A materially higher debt load limits financial flexibility for a capital‑intensive utility. Elevated leverage raises refinancing and interest risks, constrains the company’s ability to absorb adverse regulatory outcomes, and increases sensitivity to rising funding costs over the multi‑year capex cycle.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated revenue & margins
NiSource’s core regulated utility model generates steady, rate‑based returns and resilient margins. Stable net and operating margins reflect franchised revenue recovery via regulators, supporting durable cash flow generation tied to long‑lived infrastructure and predictable rate base growth.
Read all positive factors
Nisource Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Revenues by Segment
Breaks down revenue from various segments, indicating where the company is generating the most sales and potential growth opportunities.
Breaks down revenue from various segments, indicating where the company is generating the most sales and potential growth opportunities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNisource (NI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$22.93B
Dividend Yield2.69%
Average Volume (3M)3.77M
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.3
Beta (1Y)0.29
Revenue Growth15.01%
EPS Growth8.33%
CountryUS
Employees7,668
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Gas
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.02
Shares Outstanding479,439,240
10 Day Avg. Volume3,599,903
30 Day Avg. Volume3,766,462
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.05
Price to Book (P/B)2.09
Price to Sales (P/S)2.97
P/FCF Ratio-47.02
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.71
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.25
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.53
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$51.45Price Target Upside6.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)2.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.94B
Nisource Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NiSource Inc., an energy holding company, operates as a regulated natural gas and electric utility company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Columbia Operations and NIPSCO Operations. The company provides natural gas to residentia...
How the Company Makes Money
NiSource primarily makes money through regulated utility operations. The largest revenue drivers are (1) natural gas distribution service and (2) electric utility service, where the company delivers energy to end customers within franchised servic...
Nisource Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasizes strong execution: Q1 EPS growth (+8% YoY), reaffirmed full-year guidance, an improved long-term EPS CAGR target, and material commercial progress in the Genco data center strategy (signed ~4 GW, $1.4B in customer savings). Operational and safety metrics were highlighted as best-in-class, and AI/process improvements showed measurable efficiency gains. Principal negatives are execution and timing risks around regulatory approvals, increased capital intensity requiring ongoing financing, a federal order affecting the Schahfer coal plant, and the fact that the sizable pipeline (~3 GW negotiating, ~2 GW developing) is not yet reflected in guidance. Overall, the positives — near-term results, constructive regulatory engagement, large signed transactions, and improved long-term outlook — materially outweigh the listed risks, which are primarily contingent on approvals and execution.Positive Updates
Quarterly Earnings Beat and Progress Toward Guidance
Q1 2026 consolidated adjusted EPS of $1.06 versus $0.98 in Q1 2025, an increase of $0.08 per share (+8% year-over-year). Q1 results represent 52% of the midpoint of 2026 guidance, supporting the reaffirmed full-year consolidated adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02 to $2.07.
Negative Updates
Regulatory Approvals and Timing Risk
Several commercial outcomes are contingent on regulatory approvals: original Amazon contract pending IURC approval (expected June), and the Alphabet/Amazon expansions subject to expedited reviews (90–120 days after settlement). These approval timelines are gating items for project start and revenue ramp.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Earnings Beat and Progress Toward Guidance
Q1 2026 consolidated adjusted EPS of $1.06 versus $0.98 in Q1 2025, an increase of $0.08 per share (+8% year-over-year). Q1 results represent 52% of the midpoint of 2026 guidance, supporting the reaffirmed full-year consolidated adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02 to $2.07.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
NiSource reaffirmed 2026 consolidated adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02–$2.07 per share after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.06 (up $0.08 YoY, +8%), which represents 52% of the midpoint, and raised its 2023–2033 consolidated adjusted EPS CAGR by 100 bps to 9%–10% (tracking to the high end through 2030); the plan assumes 9%–11% rate base growth, modest customer demand of <1% across classes, steady O&M, and a five‑year base capital plan of $21 billion (including $2 billion of upside) plus $7.6 billion of additional Genco/data‑center capital (a $600 million CapEx increase), an initial Genco pool of ~800 MW with ~4 GW signed capacity, ~3 GW in active negotiations and ~2 GW line‑of‑sight opportunities, improved Genco EPS outlook of $0.25–$0.35 in 2030 and $0.40–$0.60 in 2033, $1.4 billion of customer savings over 15 years (about $124/year per residential customer), and a funding plan targeting 14%–16% FFO/debt with $400–$600 million of equity issuance annually.Nisource Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.82B | 6.64B | 5.46B | 5.51B | 5.85B | 4.90B |
| Gross Profit | 3.81B | 3.89B | 2.81B | 2.48B | 2.25B | 2.05B |
| EBITDA | 3.12B | 3.02B | 2.57B | 2.22B | 2.15B | 1.80B |
| Net Income | 961.80M | 929.50M | 760.40M | 714.30M | 804.10M | 584.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 36.60B | 36.55B | 31.79B | 31.08B | 26.74B | 24.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 71.90M | 135.70M | 156.60M | 2.25B | 40.80M | 84.20M |
| Total Debt | 16.77B | 16.24B | 13.96B | 14.13B | 11.53B | 9.99B |
| Total Liabilities | 24.67B | 24.89B | 21.12B | 20.94B | 18.83B | 16.88B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.66B | 9.45B | 8.68B | 8.27B | 7.58B | 6.95B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -832.00M | -420.00M | -861.50M | -710.70M | -793.70M | -620.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.12B | 2.36B | 1.78B | 1.94B | 1.41B | 1.22B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.91B | -4.29B | -3.21B | -3.57B | -2.57B | -2.20B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.59B | 1.87B | -651.00M | 3.84B | 1.14B | 956.30M |
Nisource Technical Analysis
Positive
48.31
Price Trends
47.21
Positive
46.78
Positive
44.43
Positive
Market Momentum
0.24
Negative
53.55
Neutral
40.90
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 48.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 47.21, above the 50-day MA of 47.21, and above the 200-day MA of 44.43, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NI.
Nisource Risk Analysis
Nisource disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nisource reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nisource Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $29.52B | 21.15 | 9.59% | 2.15% | 8.81% | 13.54% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $5.80B | 16.60 | 13.74% | 4.01% | 8.52% | -18.44% | |
65 Neutral | $7.54B | 11.72 | 12.77% | 3.92% | 0.52% | 20.56% | |
64 Neutral | $22.93B | 23.29 | 10.37% | 2.69% | 15.01% | 8.33% | |
62 Neutral | $4.71B | 13.74 | 10.45% | 3.82% | 4.53% | 40.51% | |
58 Neutral | $6.40B | 13.80 | 11.86% | 3.07% | -48.15% | 105.44% |
* Utilities Sector Average
NI
Nisource
47.05
8.45
21.90%
ATO
Atmos Energy
173.83
23.53
15.66%
SR
Spire
78.46
7.37
10.37%
NJR
New Jersey Resources
56.26
12.76
29.32%
SWX
Southwest Gas
88.66
17.92
25.33%
UGI
UGI
34.92
1.07
3.16%
Nisource Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
NiSource Issues New Senior Notes to Fund Growth
Positive
May 18, 2026
On May 11, 2026, NiSource Inc. entered into a terms agreement with a syndicate of underwriters to issue $500 million of 4.750% senior notes due 2031 and $750 million of 5.300% senior notes due 2036, under an existing shelf registration. The transa...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
NiSource Shareholders Approve Directors, Compensation and Auditor
Positive
May 12, 2026
At NiSource Inc.’s annual meeting held on May 11, 2026, shareholders elected all nominated directors, including Peter A. Altabef, Sondra L. Barbour, and Lloyd M. Yates, with strong majorities despite some variation in opposition and abstenti...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.