Marathon Petroleum (MPC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $48.58B
• Dividend Yield: 2.3%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.90M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.86
• Revenue Growth: -6.39%
• EPS Growth: -64.50%
• Country: US
• Employees: 18,300
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): -0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 307,213,840
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,424,194
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,901,537
• PEG Ratio: -0.68
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.66
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.56
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.48
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.12
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.74
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.39
• 1Y Price Target: $159.58
• Price Target Upside: 0.91% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

Marathon Petroleum's stock is moderately strong, supported by solid technical trends and strategic investments despite short-term setbacks like a net loss and renewable diesel challenges. Continued focus on cash flow and revenue growth is crucial for future performance.

Positive Factors

Earnings Performance

The earnings beat was largely driven by higher Refining throughput and margin capture, while Midstream earnings also outperformed.

Market Position and Cost Advantage

MPC benefits from lower crude procurement costs as most of its crude intake is sourced from the domestic market, resulting in significant freight cost savings compared to peers.

Strategic Investments

MPC's investment in modernizing the LA refinery's utility system is aimed at improving reliability and energy efficiency, which is seen as a strategic move while competitors shut down refineries.

Negative Factors

Operational Challenges

Renewable Diesel results were impacted by unplanned downtime and lower credit recognition.

Refining Segment Challenges

Elevated turnaround activity is impacting utilization and weighing on capture rates in the refining segment.

Regulatory and Market Risks

There is a risk related to tariffs affecting refined product demand, which is considered an overhang on the stock's potential.

Marathon Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 7,159 brand jobber outlets in 37 states, the District of Columbia, and Mexico through independent entrepreneurs. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

Marathon Petroleum makes money primarily through three key revenue streams: refining and marketing, midstream, and retail. The refining and marketing segment is the largest contributor to revenue, involving the processing of crude oil into refined products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, which are then sold to wholesalers, retailers, and other end-users. The midstream segment generates revenue by transporting, storing, and distributing crude oil and refined products through its extensive pipeline network and storage facilities. Lastly, the retail segment, including the Speedway brand, earns revenue from the sale of fuel and convenience store merchandise directly to consumers. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures in the midstream sector also play a significant role in enhancing MPC's earnings.

Marathon Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Marathon Petroleum has shown resilience in profitability, managing debt levels effectively. The company faces challenges with revenue decline and incomplete data on certain metrics. Improvements in cash flow and revenue growth are vital for future stability.

Income Statement

Marathon Petroleum has demonstrated strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin and EBIT margin despite fluctuations in total revenue. The company's net profit margin has shown recovery from negative results in 2020 to positive figures in subsequent years. However, there is a notable decline in total revenue over the years, especially from 2022 to 2023, which could be a concern moving forward.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is stable with a positive equity ratio and a decreasing debt-to-equity ratio, indicating effective debt management over time. Return on equity has improved significantly, especially post-2020, reflecting better utilization of shareholder equity. However, some years show zero or missing values for total assets and liabilities, which may affect complete assessment.

Cash Flow

The cash flow performance has been mixed. While operating cash flow has been positive, free cash flow has shown fluctuations, with a notable growth in 2022. The lack of data for 2024 poses challenges in assessing current cash flow health. Additionally, the free cash flow to net income ratio is not calculable for some periods due to missing free cash flow data.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
138.86B	149.35B	178.24B	120.45B	69.90B
	Gross Profit
9.29B	20.78B	26.57B	10.44B	4.16B
	EBIT
5.25B	14.51B	19.75B	3.76B	-2.60B
	EBITDA
10.60B	18.65B	22.96B	7.42B	-8.90B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
3.44B	9.68B	14.52B	1.29B	-11.03B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
3.21B	10.22B	11.77B	10.84B	555.00M
	Total Assets
78.86B	85.99B	89.90B	85.37B	85.16B
	Total Debt
28.76B	28.50B	27.91B	26.90B	33.09B
	Net Debt
25.55B	23.06B	19.28B	21.61B	32.54B
	Total Liabilities
54.35B	54.59B	54.82B	51.79B	54.94B
	Stockholders Equity
17.75B	24.40B	27.71B	26.21B	22.20B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
6.13B	12.23B	13.94B	2.90B	-368.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
8.66B	14.12B	16.36B	4.36B	2.42B
	Investing Cash Flow
1.53B	-3.10B	623.00M	14.80B	-3.26B
	Financing Cash Flow
-12.43B	-14.21B	-13.65B	-14.42B	-135.00M

Marathon Petroleum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 158.14
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MPC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 158.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 137.52, above the 50-day MA of 138.49, and above the 200-day MA of 151.55, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.33 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.55 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MPC.

Marathon Petroleum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TRGP	72 Outperform	$34.61B	29.32	46.37%	2.04%	6.05%	11.64%
FANG	72 Outperform	$40.29B	8.44	14.26%	4.50%	47.89%	-7.87%
PSX	71 Outperform	$45.19B	25.30	6.48%	4.15%	-7.61%	-66.18%
OXY	70 Outperform	$41.49B	17.06	9.43%	2.13%	1.35%	-33.30%
MPC	69 Neutral	$48.58B	22.22	12.37%	2.30%	-6.39%	-64.50%
VLO	68 Neutral	$40.87B	46.01	3.73%	3.53%	-8.44%	-85.95%
Sector *	56 Neutral	$7.17B	3.84	-4.86%	5.83%	0.24%	-51.87%

Marathon Petroleum Corporate Events

Marathon Petroleum Announces Executive Vice President Retirement

On April 28, 2025, Marathon Petroleum announced the retirement of Timothy J. Aydt, Executive Vice President of Refining, effective September 2, 2025, after over 40 years of service. Mike Henschen will succeed him on June 1, 2025, with Aydt remaining in a non-executive role to aid in the transition until his retirement.

Spark’s Take on MPC Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, MPC is a Neutral.

Marathon Petroleum presents a mixed outlook. The company has shown resilience in financial performance and strategic growth in the midstream segment, but faces challenges such as declining revenue and bearish technical indicators. The reasonable valuation and promising earnings call sentiment suggest potential for recovery, but caution is warranted due to regulatory uncertainties and market conditions.

To see Spark’s full report on MPC stock, click here.