Mattel (MAT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.46B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 5.67M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.79
• Revenue Growth: -0.73%
• EPS Growth: 88.76%
• Country: US
• Employees: 34,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 75
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 322,900,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,198,271
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,669,692
• PEG Ratio: -4.26
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.29
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.01
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.07
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.32
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.53
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.93
• 1Y Price Target: $23.71
• Price Target Upside: 19.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

Mattel's overall score reflects solid financial performance, with strong profitability and cash flow metrics providing a firm foundation. While technical indicators suggest caution due to potential downtrend risks, the stock appears undervalued, offering growth opportunities. The mixed sentiment from the earnings call and strategic corporate changes, such as the new CFO appointment, highlight both strengths and external challenges, leading to a cautiously optimistic outlook.

Positive Factors

Competitive Position

Mattel's diverse supply base and manufacturing redundancy are significant competitive advantages.

Financial Performance

Mattel's impressive results and outlook highlight positive performance, supporting a Buy rating.

Trade Policy

The de-escalation of tariff policy by the U.S. government has favorable implications for China-heavy manufacturers like Mattel.

Negative Factors

Inventory Levels

Mattel's year-end retail inventory was viewed as slightly too high, despite being flat year-over-year in dollars and weeks.

Pricing Challenges

Concerns exist about the company's ability to realize incremental pricing without significant elasticity impacts.

Retail Strategy

Headwinds arise from key retailers shifting from a direct import model to domestic sourcing, potentially causing a modest shift in revenue timing.

Mattel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mattel, Inc., a children's entertainment company, designs and produces toys and consumer products worldwide. The company operates through North America, International, and American Girl segments. It offers dolls and accessories, as well as content, gaming, and lifestyle products for children under the Barbie, Monster High, American Girl, Polly Pocket, Spirit, and Enchantimals brands; dolls and books under the American Girl brand name; die-cast vehicles, tracks, playsets, and accessories for kids of all ages, and collectors under the Hot Wheels, Monster Trucks, Matchbox, CARS, and Mario Kart brand names; and infant, toddler, and preschool products comprising content, toys, live events, and other lifestyle products under the Fisher-Price and Thomas & Friends, Power wheels, and Fireman Sam brands. The company also provides action figures, building sets, and games under the Masters of the Universe, MEGA, UNO, Lightyear, Jurassic World, WWE, and Star Wars brands; and licensor partner brands, including Disney, NBCUniversal, WWE, Microsoft, Nickelodeon, Warner Bros, and Sanrio. It sells its products directly to consumers through its catalog, website, and proprietary retail stores; retailers, including discount and free-standing toy stores, chain stores, department stores, and other retail outlets; and wholesalers, as well as through agents and distributors. Mattel, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in El Segundo, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Mattel generates revenue primarily through the design, manufacture, and sale of toys and consumer products. Its revenue model is based on licensing its well-known brand names and characters, as well as direct sales of products through retailers and online channels. Mattel's key revenue streams include sales from its core brands like Barbie, Hot Wheels, and Fisher-Price, as well as from collaborations and licensing agreements with entertainment and media companies. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and global distribution networks, which enhance its market reach and contribute to its earnings. Additionally, Mattel has been expanding into digital and entertainment content, creating new revenue opportunities through media and gaming platforms.

Mattel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mattel demonstrates solid financial health with strong profitability metrics, improved cash flow, and a balanced capital structure. Despite a slight decline in revenue, improved net profit margins and return on equity indicate effective management and operational efficiency. The company should continue monitoring its leverage to ensure financial stability.

Income Statement

Mattel shows a strong gross profit margin of approximately 50.8%, indicating efficient production relative to revenue. The net profit margin has improved significantly from 3.9% in 2023 to 10.1% in 2024, showcasing enhanced profitability. However, revenue slightly decreased by 1.1% from 2023 to 2024, which could be a concern if it continues. EBIT and EBITDA margins also highlight profitable operations, underscoring solid operational management.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio is approximately 1.15, indicating a moderate level of leverage compared to equity. ROE improved to 23.9% in 2024 from 10% in 2023, reflecting better returns on shareholder investment. The equity ratio stands at 34.6%, showcasing a balanced capital structure. However, the company carries substantial debt, which may pose risks if not managed properly.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow increased by 12.8% from 2023 to 2024, indicating improved cash generation efficiency. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.48, suggesting robust cash generation relative to net income, which is a positive sign. Additionally, free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 1.48, aligning cash flow with profitability.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
5.40B	5.38B	5.44B	5.43B	5.46B	4.58B
	Gross Profit
2.74B	2.73B	2.58B	2.48B	2.63B	2.24B
	EBIT
786.23M	694.28M	561.66M	454.92M	540.39M	182.20M
	EBITDA
908.01M	909.24M	766.53M	819.33M	909.01M	573.26M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
529.80M	541.82M	214.35M	393.91M	902.99M	123.58M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.13B	1.39B	1.26B	761.20M	731.40M	762.20M
	Total Assets
6.07B	6.54B	6.44B	6.18B	6.39B	5.52B
	Total Debt
2.66B	2.69B	2.67B	2.67B	2.85B	3.11B
	Net Debt
1.53B	1.30B	1.41B	1.91B	2.12B	2.34B
	Total Liabilities
4.04B	4.28B	4.29B	4.12B	4.83B	4.92B
	Stockholders Equity
2.03B	2.26B	2.15B	2.06B	1.57B	596.30M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
617.72M	597.95M	709.49M	256.50M	333.65M	167.40M
	Operating Cash Flow
789.87M	800.57M	869.79M	443.00M	485.00M	289.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
-191.91M	-189.04M	-142.42M	-144.00M	-105.00M	-135.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-318.02M	-449.35M	-226.57M	-269.00M	-411.00M	-21.00M

Mattel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 19.83
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.48, above the 50-day MA of 17.71, and above the 200-day MA of 18.83, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.87 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.42 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.29 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MAT.

Mattel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GOLF	81 Outperform	$4.23B	20.01	27.15%	1.22%	2.07%	24.87%
YETI	76 Outperform	$2.61B	15.23	25.01%	―	8.38%	3.69%
JAKK	73 Outperform	$237.41M	5.21	21.81%	1.17%	2.89%	41.09%
HAS	70 Outperform	$9.55B	22.17	39.16%	3.08%	-10.31%	―
MAT	70 Outperform	$6.46B	12.88	25.50%	―	-0.73%	88.76%
JOUT	65 Neutral	$278.65M	―	-9.70%	4.79%	-7.28%	-924.86%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.98B	11.38	2.86%	3.90%	2.64%	-22.07%

Mattel Corporate Events

Mattel Appoints Paul Ruh as New CFO

On May 2, 2025, Mattel announced the appointment of Paul Ruh as Chief Financial Officer, effective May 19, 2025. Ruh, who has extensive experience in financial leadership roles at Kenvue and Johnson & Johnson, will succeed Anthony DiSilvestro, who will remain as an advisor until August 15, 2025. Ruh’s appointment is seen as a strategic move to enhance Mattel’s financial operations and support its multi-year strategy to unlock the full value of its intellectual property. Ruh’s expertise in guiding consumer brands to operational excellence is expected to contribute significantly to Mattel’s growth and shareholder value.

Spark’s Take on MAT Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, MAT is a Outperform.

Mattel’s strong financial performance, including improved profitability and cash flow, is a key strength. However, technical indicators suggest caution due to potential downtrend risks. Valuation metrics indicate the stock may be undervalued, providing an opportunity for growth-oriented investors. The mixed sentiment from the earnings call highlights strategic strengths but also reflects caution due to external uncertainties.

To see Spark’s full report on MAT stock, click here.