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Mattel
(NASDAQ:MAT)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$16.00
▲(7.24% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/02/26
The score is driven primarily by solid cash generation and an undemanding P/E, offset by balance-sheet leverage and mixed technical signals. Earnings call details support the longer-term strategy and reiterated guidance, but near-term margin and cash-flow pressure remain key risks, with leadership transition adding modest uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Brand Leadership
Leading positions across major toy categories indicate durable consumer recognition and retailer relevance. Share gains in Vehicles and Action Figures, supported by brands such as Hot Wheels and UNO, can sustain repeat purchases and provide a platform for licensing, content and product extensions.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Higher leverage reduces financial flexibility and makes the business less forgiving if profitability weakens. It can constrain investment, acquisitions and shareholder returns while increasing the importance of maintaining dependable cash generation and preserving the company’s investment-grade objective.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Brand Leadership
Leading positions across major toy categories indicate durable consumer recognition and retailer relevance. Share gains in Vehicles and Action Figures, supported by brands such as Hot Wheels and UNO, can sustain repeat purchases and provide a platform for licensing, content and product extensions.
Read all positive factors
Mattel Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Billings by Category
Reveals the sales performance across different product categories, highlighting which segments are driving revenue and where the company might focus its growth strategies.
Reveals the sales performance across different product categories, highlighting which segments are driving revenue and where the company might focus its growth strategies.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMattel (MAT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.36B
Dividend Yield7.86%
Average Volume (3M)5.68M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.3
Beta (1Y)0.96
Revenue Growth2.90%
EPS Growth-12.28%
CountryUS
Employees31,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.35
Shares Outstanding285,700,000
10 Day Avg. Volume9,715,365
30 Day Avg. Volume5,678,452
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.74
Price to Book (P/B)2.83
Price to Sales (P/S)1.18
P/FCF Ratio15.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.43
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.14
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.39
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.31
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.13Price Target Upside21.48% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)1.31
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.67B
Mattel Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mattel, Inc. functions as a worldwide children's entertainment corporation, primarily engaged in the design and production of a diverse range of toys and consumer goods. The company's operations are segmented into North America, International, and...
How the Company Makes Money
Mattel primarily makes money by selling toys and related consumer products to retail and e-commerce customers around the world. Revenue is generated from wholesale shipments of products under Mattel-owned brands (e.g., Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-P...
Mattel Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive operational and strategic picture highlighted by strong top-line growth (net sales +10% reported, +9% constant currency), regional expansion, brand leadership (Hot Wheels, UNO, Action Figures), progress integrating Mattel163 (≈$49M revenue; ≈$14M adjusted OI) and meaningful content and digital game initiatives that position the company for a stronger 2027. These positives were balanced against near-term profitability and cash-flow pressures: adjusted operating income, EBITDA and EPS declined materially due to higher advertising/SG&A investments and margin headwinds from tariffs, inflation and royalties; cash decreased and leverage remains elevated. Management reiterated full-year 2026 guidance and emphasized that 2026 is an investment year positioning the company for mid- to high-single-digit top-line growth and strong double-digit bottom-line improvement in 2027. Overall, the strategic growth drivers and execution progress materially outweigh the current financial headwinds, though investors should monitor margin recovery, tariff outcomes and the timing/outcome of digital and film monetization.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net sales increased 10% as reported and 9% in constant currency in Q2, driven by both owned and partner IP and digital games; company reiterated full-year 2026 net sales guidance of +3% to +6% (constant currency).
Negative Updates
Sharp Decline in Profitability Metrics
Adjusted operating income fell to $39 million from $96 million year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA decreased to $95 million from $170 million; adjusted EPS dropped to $0.01 from $0.21, largely due to higher advertising, SG&A and lower gross margin.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net sales increased 10% as reported and 9% in constant currency in Q2, driven by both owned and partner IP and digital games; company reiterated full-year 2026 net sales guidance of +3% to +6% (constant currency).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Mattel reiterated full‑year 2026 guidance calling for net sales growth of 3%–6% in constant currency, adjusted gross margin of approximately 50%, adjusted operating income of $580M–$630M and adjusted EPS of $1.27–$1.39, while noting FX should be a roughly 1% tailwind to net sales and gross margin is expected to improve in H2 with no return to the heavy promotions seen at year‑end 2025. The company said 2026 includes $110M of strategic investments (with the majority of a $40M digital user‑acquisition spend deferred to UNO Wild’s commercial launch in 2027), expects ~ $50M of Optimizing for Profitable Growth savings this year (part of a $225M program with $205M realized to date), and noted Q2 operating results and drivers: Q2 adjusted gross margin 48.6% (—170 bps tariffs, —120 bps inflation, —110 bps royalties, —60 bps FX; +120 bps from Mattel163, +80 bps other), Q2 adjusted operating income $39M, adjusted EBITDA $95M, adj. EPS $0.01, Mattel163 contributed ~$49M revenue and ~$14M adj. operating income in the quarter, TTM free cash flow $435M, cash $524M, total debt comparable with a 3x leverage ratio, owned inventory $830M, retailer inventories down low double digits, and share repurchases of $100M in the quarter ($300M YTD, $400M full‑year target, $1.5B repurchased since 2023, ~23% fewer shares outstanding); guidance excludes any material tariff refund benefit.Mattel Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
51
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.49B | 5.35B | 5.38B | 5.44B | 5.43B | 5.46B |
| Gross Profit | 2.60B | 2.61B | 2.73B | 2.58B | 2.48B | 2.63B |
| EBITDA | 749.81M | 774.10M | 987.23M | 818.37M | 875.37M | 956.38M |
| Net Income | 427.37M | 397.60M | 541.82M | 214.35M | 393.91M | 902.99M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.36B | 6.64B | 6.54B | 6.44B | 6.18B | 6.39B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 523.90M | 1.24B | 1.39B | 1.26B | 761.24M | 731.36M |
| Total Debt | 2.75B | 2.68B | 2.69B | 2.67B | 2.67B | 2.93B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.36B | 4.41B | 4.28B | 4.29B | 4.12B | 4.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.00B | 2.23B | 2.26B | 2.15B | 2.06B | 1.57B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 626.49M | 411.26M | 597.95M | 709.49M | 256.34M | 334.11M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 732.51M | 593.30M | 800.57M | 869.79M | 442.84M | 485.46M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -295.62M | -154.90M | -189.04M | -142.42M | -144.22M | -105.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -164.27M | -620.57M | -449.35M | -226.57M | -260.64M | -402.07M |
Mattel Technical Analysis
Positive
14.92
Price Trends
14.35
Positive
14.31
Positive
15.89
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.07
Negative
64.93
Neutral
43.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.64, above the 50-day MA of 14.35, and below the 200-day MA of 15.89, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MAT.
Mattel Risk Analysis
Mattel disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mattel reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mattel Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $265.13M | 11.53 | 13.11% | 3.14% | 0.97% | 80.59% | |
70 Outperform | $310.73M | 18.85 | 6.50% | 3.68% | -14.67% | -59.03% | |
64 Neutral | $4.36B | 11.31 | 19.88% | 7.86% | 2.90% | -12.28% | |
64 Neutral | $12.63B | 15.90 | 138.39% | 3.13% | 16.87% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $328.67M | -158.81 | -1.09% | ― | -3.92% | 96.88% | |
45 Neutral | $235.11M | -2.64 | -86.54% | 1.51% | -1.49% | -795.27% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MAT
Mattel
15.27
-2.80
-15.50%
ESCA
Escalade
19.26
7.29
60.96%
HAS
Hasbro
89.54
17.10
23.60%
JAKK
Jakks Pacific
27.15
9.22
51.46%
PLAY
Dave & Busters Entertainment
6.75
-11.28
-62.56%
FNKO
Funko
5.86
2.53
75.98%
Mattel Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Mattel Announces CEO Transition to Roger Lynch Leadership
Positive
Sep 30, 2026
During late September 2026, Mattel’s board approved a leadership transition that will see director Roger Lynch become chairman on October 2, 2026 and chief executive officer no later than November 2, 2026, succeeding Ynon Kreiz, who is leavi...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Mattel Elevates Roberto Stanichi to Top Marketing Role
Positive
Jul 31, 2026
On July 29, 2026, Mattel promoted Roberto Stanichi, 47, to President, Chief Marketing and Brand Officer, expanding his remit over brand and business strategy, marketing, consumer insights, and product design while he continues reporting to Chairma...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.