Want to see KALU full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Kaiser Aluminum
(NASDAQ:KALU)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$120.00
▼(-23.44% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/23/26
The score is held back mainly by weak cash-flow performance and bearish technical momentum (price below all major moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting these risks are a supportive valuation (low-to-moderate P/E and a ~2% dividend yield) and a constructive earnings-call outlook, including guidance for strong full-year free cash flow and improved leverage, albeit with near-term operational and shipment headwinds.
Positive Factors
Improved profitability and revenue scale
Higher revenue, expanded margins, and a substantial recovery in net income indicate meaningful operating improvement. If sustained, the stronger earnings base can support investment, debt reduction, and resilience across the next several quarters despite the company’s cyclical end markets.
Negative Factors
Weak current cash conversion
Negative operating and free cash flow create a disconnect between accounting earnings and cash generation. If this persists, Kaiser may have less internally generated funding for growth, debt service, and shareholder returns, increasing reliance on its balance-sheet capacity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved profitability and revenue scale
Higher revenue, expanded margins, and a substantial recovery in net income indicate meaningful operating improvement. If sustained, the stronger earnings base can support investment, debt reduction, and resilience across the next several quarters despite the company’s cyclical end markets.
Read all positive factors
Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.72B
Dividend Yield2.92%
Average Volume (3M)255.32K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.9
Beta (1Y)1.79
Revenue Growth40.43%
EPS Growth136.99%
CountryUS
Employees3,800
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAluminum
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)13.41
Shares Outstanding16,349,886
10 Day Avg. Volume331,050
30 Day Avg. Volume255,322
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.12
Price to Book (P/B)2.25
Price to Sales (P/S)0.55
P/FCF Ratio-72.83
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.75
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.04
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.35
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$141.00Price Target Upside-10.05% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)13.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.74B
Kaiser Aluminum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation is a global producer and vendor of specialized, semi-finished aluminum mill products, operating both domestically within the United States and internationally. Their diverse product portfolio encompasses aluminum items ...
How the Company Makes Money
Kaiser Aluminum makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling semi-fabricated specialty aluminum products to customers under sales contracts and purchase orders. Revenue is generated when the company delivers aluminum mill products (e.g., rol...
Kaiser Aluminum Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 21, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly optimistic about demand, pricing, mix, customer commitments, liquidity, and the company's multi-year growth opportunities. Near-term results faced meaningful headwinds from metal price lag, tighter scrap spreads, planned outages, execution issues, startup costs, inventory timing, and revised shipment outlooks. However, management maintained its full-year outlook, expects free cash flow to exceed $200 million, reported significant underlying operating improvement, and emphasized that most second-half disruptions are not expected to continue into 2027.Positive Updates
Robust Demand and Improving Long-Term Outlook
Management said customer activity remained robust and strengthened during the quarter, with demand across aerospace, high-strength packaging, and general engineering exceeding beginning-of-year expectations. Lead times remain extended, bookings continue to move further into 2027, and management said it is more optimistic about market opportunities than at any point in recent years.
Negative Updates
Reported Net Income and EPS Declined Year-over-Year
Reported net income was approximately $31 million, or $1.84 per diluted share, compared with $40 million, or $2.38 per diluted share, in the prior-year quarter. The prior-year result included an approximately $11 million non-run-rate gain related to legacy land-sale and insurance settlements.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Robust Demand and Improving Long-Term Outlook
Management said customer activity remained robust and strengthened during the quarter, with demand across aerospace, high-strength packaging, and general engineering exceeding beginning-of-year expectations. Lead times remain extended, bookings continue to move further into 2027, and management said it is more optimistic about market opportunities than at any point in recent years.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For full year 2026, Kaiser Aluminum expects its effective tax rate before discrete items to be in the mid-20% range, cash tax payments for the federal, state, and foreign taxes to be in the $14 million-$16 million range, free cash flow to exceed $200 million, and capital expenditures to be approximately $130 million; it expects packaging shipment growth of 5%-10% versus the prior expectation of 10%-15%, while maintaining the conversion revenue outlook with expectations to the higher end of the range, and automotive shipments to decline 5%-10% versus the prior expectation of a decline of 0%-5%, with no change to its conversion revenue outlook; full-year 2026 outlook remains unchanged, but results are expected to trend toward the lower end of the previously communicated EBITDA outlook of approximately 45% year-over-year growth.Kaiser Aluminum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
33
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.51B | 3.37B | 3.02B | 3.09B | 3.43B | 2.62B |
| Gross Profit | 482.60M | 319.90M | 332.90M | 332.10M | 247.70M | 273.90M |
| EBITDA | 462.20M | 322.60M | 223.60M | 211.80M | 117.30M | 117.00M |
| Net Income | 218.50M | 112.50M | 46.80M | 47.20M | -29.60M | -18.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.92B | 2.56B | 2.31B | 2.27B | 2.29B | 2.42B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 117.30M | 7.00M | 18.40M | 82.40M | 57.40M | 303.20M |
| Total Debt | 1.06B | 1.12B | 1.09B | 1.08B | 1.09B | 1.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.94B | 1.74B | 1.65B | 1.62B | 1.66B | 1.73B |
| Stockholders Equity | 975.50M | 826.10M | 668.00M | 652.20M | 631.20M | 692.50M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 124.80M | -25.50M | -13.70M | 68.70M | -205.60M | 21.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 227.50M | 111.40M | 167.10M | 211.90M | -63.10M | 79.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -53.10M | -77.80M | -174.60M | -128.20M | -125.80M | -665.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -74.50M | -44.60M | -55.30M | -54.30M | -56.80M | 109.10M |
Kaiser Aluminum Technical Analysis
Negative
156.75
Price Trends
151.17
Negative
162.03
Negative
151.78
Negative
Market Momentum
-9.00
Positive
20.58
Positive
4.70
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KALU, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 156.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 143.60, above the 50-day MA of 151.17, and above the 200-day MA of 151.78, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -9.00 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 20.58 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.70 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KALU.
Kaiser Aluminum Risk Analysis
Kaiser Aluminum disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kaiser Aluminum reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Kaiser Aluminum Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $3.15B | 5.21 | 58.57% | ― | 9.67% | 399.06% | |
69 Neutral | $10.21B | 6.62 | 21.40% | 1.03% | 11.56% | 32.11% | |
68 Neutral | $4.72B | 52.20 | 9.41% | 0.25% | 21.56% | 454.16% | |
67 Neutral | $3.17B | 5.87 | 52.38% | ― | 25.94% | 1920.11% | |
62 Neutral | $1.69B | 13.38 | 17.29% | 1.58% | 9.87% | -26.90% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | $1.72B | 7.87 | 24.13% | 2.92% | 40.43% | 136.99% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
KALU
Kaiser Aluminum
105.47
14.38
15.78%
AA
Alcoa
38.70
-0.89
-2.24%
MTRN
Materion
226.55
94.80
71.95%
CENX
Century Aluminum
31.80
1.10
3.58%
CSTM
Constellium
23.41
6.56
38.93%
TGLS
Tecnoglass
38.01
-21.07
-35.66%
Kaiser Aluminum Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Kaiser Aluminum Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend for Shareholders
Positive
Oct 13, 2026
On October 13, 2026, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation announced that its board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.77 per share on its common stock. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on November 13, 2026 to shareholders of record a...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Kaiser Aluminum announces planned CEO leadership transition
Positive
Aug 17, 2026
On August 17, 2026, Kaiser Aluminum announced that veteran manufacturing executive Fred Stephan will become chief executive officer and president effective November 1, 2026, succeeding long-time leader Keith A. Harvey as part of a planned leadersh...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.