Want to see KALU full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Kaiser Aluminum
(NASDAQ:KALU)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$202.00
▲(23.80% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (stronger profitability and revenue) but held back by leverage and below-ideal cash conversion. Technicals add support with a clear uptrend above key moving averages and positive MACD. Valuation looks reasonable (P/E ~13) with a modest dividend yield. The latest earnings call further supports the outlook via raised/strong guidance and improving leverage, offset by expectations for H2 metal-tailwind normalization and higher seasonal costs.
Positive Factors
Broad-based revenue and profitability recovery
The simultaneous improvement in revenue and profitability indicates stronger demand, pricing, mix and operating execution. Recovery across multiple periods provides a more durable foundation than a one-quarter earnings improvement, although margins remain industrially sensitive.
Negative Factors
Meaningful remaining debt burden
Although leverage has improved, debt still exceeds equity and leaves less room to absorb weaker aluminum end markets, margin compression or execution setbacks. Interest expense of approximately $54M annually also constrains the portion of earnings available for reinvestment.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Broad-based revenue and profitability recovery
The simultaneous improvement in revenue and profitability indicates stronger demand, pricing, mix and operating execution. Recovery across multiple periods provides a more durable foundation than a one-quarter earnings improvement, although margins remain industrially sensitive.
Read all positive factors
Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.51B
Dividend Yield1.98%
Average Volume (3M)289.93K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.1
Beta (1Y)1.71
Revenue Growth32.83%
EPS Growth251.96%
CountryUS
Employees3,800
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAluminum
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)13.95
Shares Outstanding16,349,092
10 Day Avg. Volume264,755
30 Day Avg. Volume289,934
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.12
Price to Book (P/B)2.25
Price to Sales (P/S)0.55
P/FCF Ratio-72.83
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$164.67Price Target Upside0.92% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)12.95
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.51B
Kaiser Aluminum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation is a global producer and vendor of specialized, semi-finished aluminum mill products, operating both domestically within the United States and internationally. Their diverse product portfolio encompasses aluminum items ...
How the Company Makes Money
Kaiser Aluminum makes money by manufacturing and selling value-added, specialty aluminum products, with revenue primarily recognized from shipments to customers under supply agreements and purchase orders.
Key revenue streams:
- Aerospace/high-sp...
Kaiser Aluminum Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 22, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong, broad-based operational recovery and sizable year-over-year financial improvement (conversion revenue +17%, EBITDA up $99M, substantial EPS and net income gains), driven by robust demand across packaging, aerospace, general engineering and improving automotive niches, plus improved liquidity and leverage. Management cautioned that metal-related tailwinds that amplified H1 results are not expected to persist into H2 and flagged higher seasonal spending, planned maintenance and some ongoing operational optimization at Warwick. Overall the positives — strong demand, improved margins, cash flow and balance sheet — materially outweigh the manageable headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth — Conversion Revenue
Conversion revenue of $437 million in Q2 (up ~$63 million or 17% year-over-year), driven by higher pricing, mix and increased volumes across most end markets.
Negative Updates
Normalization of Metal Tailwinds
Company warned that the exceptional metal-related gains (metal lag and wide scrap spreads) that boosted results in the first half are not expected to continue in H2; weighted-average metal inventory cost is roughly in line with the forward curve (~$2.45/lb), removing a significant near-term tailwind.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth — Conversion Revenue
Conversion revenue of $437 million in Q2 (up ~$63 million or 17% year-over-year), driven by higher pricing, mix and increased volumes across most end markets.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that for fiscal 2026 they now expect conversion revenue to finish near the high end of their previously communicated 10–15% growth range and adjusted EBITDA to rise 45–55% year‑over‑year; full‑year free cash flow is forecast at $150–175M, capex $120–130M, an effective tax rate in the mid‑20% range with cash tax payments of $14–18M, and a quarterly dividend of $0.77/share. They reiterated assumptions of relatively stable aluminum prices and normalized metal tailwinds in H2 alongside higher seasonal plant spending and planned maintenance (fewer shipping days). Key Q2 datapoints called out that underpin the outlook: conversion revenue $437M (+17% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $166M (up $99M YoY) including a $27M metal‑lag gain, Q2 free cash flow $35M and capex $24M, weighted average metal inventory cost ≈ $2.45/lb, cash ≈ $59M with ~$570M revolver availability (total liquidity ~$628M), and net debt leverage improved to 2.1x (from 3.4x, target 2.0–2.5x). They also noted segment specifics: packaging Q2 conversion revenue $174M (+34% YoY) with shipments +10% and Roll Coat 4 targeted ~80% utilization and packaging conversion revenue expected near the high end of prior 20–25% guidance; general engineering conversion revenue outlook raised to +10–15% YoY; senior notes interest ~$54M/year with no maturities until 2030.Kaiser Aluminum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.14B | 3.37B | 3.02B | 3.09B | 3.43B | 2.62B |
| Gross Profit | 477.50M | 319.90M | 332.90M | 332.10M | 247.70M | 273.90M |
| EBITDA | 472.10M | 322.60M | 223.60M | 211.80M | 117.30M | 117.00M |
| Net Income | 227.00M | 112.50M | 46.80M | 47.20M | -29.60M | -18.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.91B | 2.56B | 2.31B | 2.27B | 2.29B | 2.42B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 58.50M | 7.00M | 18.40M | 82.40M | 57.40M | 303.20M |
| Total Debt | 1.07B | 1.12B | 1.09B | 1.08B | 1.09B | 1.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.97B | 1.74B | 1.65B | 1.62B | 1.66B | 1.73B |
| Stockholders Equity | 943.80M | 826.10M | 668.00M | 652.20M | 631.20M | 692.50M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 87.00M | -25.50M | -13.70M | 68.70M | -205.60M | 21.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 185.90M | 111.40M | 167.10M | 211.90M | -63.10M | 79.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -32.60M | -77.80M | -174.60M | -128.20M | -125.80M | -665.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -107.80M | -44.60M | -55.30M | -54.30M | -56.80M | 109.10M |
Kaiser Aluminum Technical Analysis
Negative
163.17
Price Trends
170.42
Negative
169.18
Negative
142.90
Positive
Market Momentum
-4.26
Positive
41.65
Neutral
14.12
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KALU, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 163.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 169.85, below the 50-day MA of 170.42, and above the 200-day MA of 142.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.12 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KALU.
Kaiser Aluminum Risk Analysis
Kaiser Aluminum disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kaiser Aluminum reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Kaiser Aluminum Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $13.53B | 10.11 | 19.16% | 0.90% | 6.14% | 25.38% | |
77 Outperform | $4.38B | 7.21 | 58.57% | ― | 9.67% | 399.06% | |
72 Outperform | $2.51B | 11.15 | 26.29% | 1.89% | 32.83% | 251.96% | |
68 Neutral | $4.84B | 54.39 | 9.41% | 0.23% | 21.56% | 454.16% | |
67 Neutral | $3.67B | 6.81 | 52.38% | ― | 25.94% | 1920.11% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
KALU
Kaiser Aluminum
155.50
78.60
102.21%
AA
Alcoa
49.72
18.17
57.59%
MTRN
Materion
236.05
125.96
114.41%
CENX
Century Aluminum
43.95
21.25
93.61%
CSTM
Constellium
27.18
12.58
86.16%
MTAL
Metals Acquisition Corp. II Class A
10.18
<0.01
0.10%
Kaiser Aluminum Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Kaiser Aluminum announces planned CEO leadership transition
Positive
Aug 17, 2026
On August 17, 2026, Kaiser Aluminum announced that veteran manufacturing executive Fred Stephan will become chief executive officer and president effective November 1, 2026, succeeding long-time leader Keith A. Harvey as part of a planned leadersh...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Kaiser Aluminum Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend, Signals Stability
Positive
Jul 13, 2026
On July 13, 2026, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation announced that its board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.77 per share on its common stock, continuing its practice of returning capital to shareholders. The dividend is scheduled ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Kaiser Aluminum Shareholders Approve Expanded Equity Incentive Plan
Positive
Jun 4, 2026
At its June 4, 2026 annual meeting, Kaiser Aluminum stockholders approved an amendment to the company’s 2021 Equity and Incentive Compensation Plan, increasing the pool of shares available for equity awards by 395,000 to a total of 1,183,000...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.