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GRAIL Inc (GRAL)
NASDAQ:GRAL
US Market

GRAIL Inc (GRAL) AI Stock Analysis

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GRAIL Inc

(NASDAQ:GRAL)

68Neutral
GRAIL Inc.'s strong revenue growth and positive momentum are significant strengths, contributing to a favorable technical analysis score. However, valuation concerns due to ongoing losses and negative cash flow impact the overall score. The earnings call provided a positive outlook but highlighted funding and trial uncertainties, which are notable risks.
Positive Factors
Market Opportunity
GRAIL has a first-mover advantage in the multi-cancer early detection (MCED) testing market, driven by its leading generation of clinical data and large addressable market.
Revenue Growth
GRAIL posted 24% annual growth in Galleri (MCED test) revenue, with improvements in cost of goods sold (COGS) per test.
Strategic Partnerships
New strategic partnerships with Quest Diagnostics and TRICARE Health Insurance are expected to expand Grail Inc's reach and grow the market ahead of significant study readouts.
Negative Factors
Cash Burn
The company burned nearly $90 million in cash during 1Q25, which was slightly higher than the analyst's estimate.
Financing Needs
Additional financing will likely be required to build out commercial infrastructure for successful market penetration.
Regulatory Risks
There are inherent risks associated with broadly commercializing novel technologies such as MCEDs, including an uncertain regulatory and reimbursement pathway.

GRAIL Inc (GRAL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

GRAIL Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGRAIL, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on developing technologies for early cancer detection. The company develops Galleri, a screening test for asymptomatic individuals over 50 years of age; and DAC, a diagnostic aid for cancer tests to accelerate diagnostic resolution for patients for whom there is a clinical suspicion of cancer. It is also developing minimal residual disease and other post-diagnostic tests. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Menlo Park, California. GRAIL, Inc. operates as a former subsidiary of Illumina, Inc.
How the Company Makes MoneyGRAIL Inc makes money primarily through the commercialization of its early cancer detection tests. The company generates revenue by selling these diagnostic tests to healthcare providers, hospitals, and clinics. Additionally, GRAIL may engage in partnerships with pharmaceutical companies and other healthcare organizations to expand its market reach and enhance its product offerings. These collaborations can provide additional revenue streams through research and development agreements, licensing, and co-marketing efforts. The company's revenue is also influenced by its ability to navigate regulatory environments and secure market access for its innovative diagnostic solutions.

GRAIL Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary
GRAIL Inc. shows strong revenue growth but continues to face profitability challenges with negative margins. A robust equity position and low leverage provide financial stability, yet cash flow remains a concern due to negative free cash flow and reliance on external financing.
Income Statement
58
Neutral
GRAIL Inc. has shown substantial revenue growth with a 34.89% increase from 2023 to 2024. However, the company continues to operate at a loss with a negative gross profit margin of -62.12% and a net profit margin of -161.42% in 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating ongoing operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
GRAIL Inc. maintains a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 83.92%. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.03, signifying limited leverage. However, the return on equity is negative due to ongoing losses. The company's high stockholders' equity relative to total assets suggests financial stability but profitability remains a concern.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.28, indicating cash flow challenges. Free cash flow has improved slightly, but remains negative at -$582.36 million. The company raised $1.24 billion in financing activities, aiding liquidity but highlighting reliance on external funding.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2020Dec 2019
Income StatementTotal Revenue
125.59M93.11M55.55M0.000.00
Gross Profit
-78.02M-95.61M-116.45M0.00-10.31M
EBIT
-2.19B-1.52B-742.46M-316.30M-253.46M
EBITDA
-610.17M-620.90M-575.57M-308.73M-243.14M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-2.03B-1.47B-5.40B-312.16M-244.85M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
763.47M97.29M241.60M583.48M544.34M
Total Assets
2.98B3.91B5.60B706.30M635.52M
Total Debt
68.14M84.41M96.01M57.54M42.04M
Net Debt
-146.09M-12.88M-145.59M-112.66M-101.15M
Total Liabilities
479.90M267.63M955.94M144.46M84.99M
Stockholders Equity
2.50B3.65B4.65B561.84M550.53M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-582.36M-608.69M-584.17M-243.91M-249.13M
Operating Cash Flow
-577.16M-595.80M-561.31M-232.00M-245.79M
Investing Cash Flow
-551.01M-12.89M-22.86M-12.79M133.04M
Financing Cash Flow
1.24B463.77M604.82M275.11M160.33M

GRAIL Inc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price42.89
Price Trends
50DMA
30.31
Positive
100DMA
29.65
Positive
200DMA
22.55
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.96
Negative
RSI
49.66
Neutral
STOCH
57.22
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRAL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 42.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.95, above the 50-day MA of 30.31, and above the 200-day MA of 22.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.96 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GRAL.

GRAIL Inc Risk Analysis

GRAIL Inc disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GRAIL Inc reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

GRAIL Inc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (56)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
DGDGX
79
Outperform
$19.64B22.2313.35%1.75%9.38%6.43%
70
Outperform
$9.10B98.592.67%3.31%
68
Neutral
$1.27B-62.22%34.90%-37.19%
68
Neutral
$21.48B-18.66%51.50%53.23%
56
Neutral
$4.60B25.73-18.75%5.15%17.19%-69.33%
GHGH
52
Neutral
$5.16B-4584.47%28.20%13.87%
29
Underperform
$49.86M138.92%59.10%37.59%
* General Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GRAL
GRAIL Inc
32.89
18.59
130.00%
QGEN
Qiagen
41.15
-4.61
-10.07%
DGX
Quest Diagnostics
172.48
34.50
25.00%
VNRX
VolitionRX
0.47
-0.32
-40.51%
NTRA
Natera
151.34
44.03
41.03%
GH
Guardant Health
40.72
14.97
58.14%

GRAIL Inc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 0.00%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented strong first-quarter results with significant revenue growth and positive trial results, alongside strategic partnerships and market expansion. However, concerns about future funding and uncertainty around key trial results present challenges.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Positive Top-Line Results from NHS-Galleri Trial
The prevalent round of screening in the 140,000 participant NHS-Galleri trial showed strong Galleri performance in detecting multiple types of cancers with very low false positive rates.
Galleri Test Commercial Performance
GRAIL sold more than 37,000 Galleri tests in the first quarter, with over 325,000 tests prescribed by more than 14,000 healthcare providers since its launch in 2021.
Revenue Growth
First quarter revenue was $31.8 million, up 19% compared to the first quarter of 2024. Screening revenue was $29.1 million, up 24% year-over-year.
Cash Runway and Financial Management
GRAIL ended the quarter with a cash position of $677.9 million, with a cash burn for 2025 expected to be no more than $320 million, extending the runway into 2028.
Partnerships and Market Expansion
New partnerships with Athena Health and Quest Diagnostics are streamlining Galleri test ordering, and commercial launch in Israel has begun in partnership with OncoTest.
High Specificity and Positive Predictive Value
Galleri demonstrated a specificity of 99.5% and a positive predictive value higher than 43%, as observed in the PATHFINDER study.
Negative Updates
Concerns Over Cash Burn and Future Funding
Despite efforts to reduce cash burn, concerns remain about the ability to fund operations through FDA approval and CMS reimbursement, especially with several years until potential approval and reimbursement.
Uncertainty Around NHS Galleri Trial Final Results
The final results of the NHS Galleri trial, critical for commercialization in the UK, are not expected until mid-2026, creating uncertainty in the near term.
Company Guidance
During the GRAIL First Quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance highlighting several key metrics and achievements. GRAIL reported a revenue of $31.8 million, a 19% increase compared to the previous year, with screening revenue at $29.1 million, up 24%. The company sold over 37,000 Galleri tests in the first quarter and noted that more than 325,000 tests have been prescribed since its 2021 launch. The NHS-Galleri trial demonstrated a higher positive predictive value (PPV) than the 43% observed in the PATHFINDER study. GRAIL's specificity was reported at 99.5% with a cancer signal origin (CSO) accuracy of 88%. The company is on track for a cash burn of no more than $320 million for the year, representing a 40% decrease from 2024, and maintains a cash position of $677.9 million, projecting a runway into 2028. GRAIL anticipates completing its PMA submission to the FDA in the first half of 2026, with final results from the NHS-Galleri trial expected mid-2026.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.