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Graphic Packaging
(NYSE:GPK)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
▼(-21.19% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/23/26
Overall score reflects weak recent financial performance (sharp TTM revenue decline and margin compression) and a still-bearish price trend as the primary drags. Offsetting factors include relatively supportive valuation (moderate P/E and high dividend yield) and a cautiously improving outlook from management actions (cost savings, pricing, capex discipline, and higher 2026 cash flow guidance with debt reduction plans), though inflation and high leverage remain meaningful risks.
Positive Factors
Improving cash generation
The expected cash-flow improvement, supported by cost savings, lower capital spending and working-capital actions, could strengthen internal funding capacity. If delivered, it would support debt reduction and preserve reinvestment flexibility despite the company’s pressured earnings profile.
Negative Factors
Revenue and margin deterioration
The sharp decline in revenue and profitability shows that weaker demand, pricing pressure or mix effects are materially reducing earnings power. Lower margins leave less cushion against additional cost or volume shocks and make recovery dependent on successful pricing, savings and operational execution.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving cash generation
The expected cash-flow improvement, supported by cost savings, lower capital spending and working-capital actions, could strengthen internal funding capacity. If delivered, it would support debt reduction and preserve reinvestment flexibility despite the company’s pressured earnings profile.
Read all positive factors
Graphic Packaging Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much sales come from each of the company’s business lines (for example consumer packaging, foodservice, beverage and any specialty segments). Helps investors see where growth and risk are concentrated, whether the company is diversified across end markets, and which segments are driving margin and pricing power — important for evaluating demand sensitivity to consumer trends and commodity cycles.
Shows how much sales come from each of the company’s business lines (for example consumer packaging, foodservice, beverage and any specialty segments). Helps investors see where growth and risk are concentrated, whether the company is diversified across end markets, and which segments are driving margin and pricing power — important for evaluating demand sensitivity to consumer trends and commodity cycles.
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The Fly
The FlyGraphic Packaging (GPK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.60B
Dividend Yield5.02%
Average Volume (3M)7.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.3
Beta (1Y)0.80
Revenue Growth0.02%
EPS Growth-63.11%
CountryUS
Employees23,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.66
Shares Outstanding296,071,560
10 Day Avg. Volume7,372,599
30 Day Avg. Volume7,432,364
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.33
Price to Book (P/B)1.34
Price to Sales (P/S)0.52
P/FCF Ratio-55.15
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.31
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.00
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.08
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.24Price Target Upside-10.35% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.68
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.63B
Graphic Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Graphic Packaging Holding Company, along with its subsidiaries, provides extensive fiber-based packaging solutions for clients across the food, beverage, foodservice, and broader consumer product industries. The company's operations are divided in...
How the Company Makes Money
Graphic Packaging primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling paperboard-based packaging products to brand owners and foodservice customers. Its core revenue stream is the sale of folding cartons and other paperboard packaging formats used ...
Graphic Packaging Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a cautiously constructive tone: management acknowledged meaningful near-term headwinds (broader and higher-than-expected inflation, inventory timing issues, segment softness and YoY EBITDA decline) but outlined concrete mitigation steps — stronger-than-expected cost savings, disciplined capex and working capital actions, multiple pricing initiatives, strategic portfolio rationalization, and a large uplift in 2026 cash flow guidance. Operational and commercial initiatives (URB launch, patents, customer wins) support medium-term upside, while inflation and inventory timing present near-term pressure.Positive Updates
Solid Quarterly Results and Margin Expansion
Q2 net sales of $2.2B (down 1% YoY) with adjusted EBITDA of $247M and adjusted EPS of $0.14; adjusted EBITDA margin expanded sequentially to 11.3% (up ~50 bps Q/Q).
Negative Updates
Year-over-Year Profitability Pressure
Q2 adjusted EBITDA declined $89M YoY (~26% decline from prior-year quarter) driven largely by inflation and mix; full-year adjusted EBITDA now expected at the low end of guidance ($1.05B–$1.25B) due primarily to higher-than-expected inflation.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Solid Quarterly Results and Margin Expansion
Q2 net sales of $2.2B (down 1% YoY) with adjusted EBITDA of $247M and adjusted EPS of $0.14; adjusted EBITDA margin expanded sequentially to 11.3% (up ~50 bps Q/Q).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Graphic Packaging updated 2026 guidance to reflect higher inflation but stronger cost actions: full‑year adjusted EBITDA is now expected at the low end of the $1.05B–$1.25B range, adjusted cash flow is revised to $600M–$700M (midpoint $650M, vs. $169M in 2025), and adjusted EPS is guided to $0.65–$0.90; Q3 adjusted EBITDA is targeted at $280M–$300M. Q2 results included net sales of $2.2B, adjusted EBITDA $247M (11.3% margin), adjusted EPS $0.14, adjusted cash flow $138M (+$55M YoY), net debt down $100M to $5.5B (net leverage ~4.7x, targeting ~4.6x YE) and a plan to pay down $400M–$500M of debt in 2026. The company now models incremental input cost inflation of about $150M for the year (vs. prior $60–65M), offset by roughly $85M of in‑year cost savings (vs. prior $60M) and pricing actions expected to add ~ $60M to 2026 sales/EBITDA with an approximate $145M annualized run‑rate; capex is now expected below $450M, H1 inventory was reduced by ~$75M but year‑end inventory is expected at 18%–19% of sales, and interest expense is modeled at about $275M.Graphic Packaging Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.64B | 8.62B | 8.81B | 9.43B | 9.44B | 7.16B |
| Gross Profit | 1.33B | 1.61B | 2.00B | 2.19B | 1.82B | 1.08B |
| EBITDA | 1.06B | 1.34B | 1.67B | 1.79B | 1.47B | 895.00M |
| Net Income | 194.00M | 444.00M | 658.00M | 723.00M | 522.00M | 204.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.66B | 11.78B | 11.14B | 11.18B | 10.33B | 10.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 205.00M | 261.00M | 157.00M | 162.00M | 150.00M | 172.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.81B | 5.87B | 5.46B | 5.62B | 5.50B | 6.06B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.42B | 8.44B | 8.13B | 8.39B | 8.18B | 8.56B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.24B | 3.34B | 3.01B | 2.78B | 2.15B | 1.89B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 189.00M | -81.00M | -363.00M | 340.00M | 541.00M | -193.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 793.00M | 841.00M | 840.00M | 1.14B | 1.09B | 609.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -360.00M | -732.00M | -342.00M | -1.02B | -435.00M | -2.39B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -348.00M | -18.00M | -489.00M | -106.00M | -666.00M | 1.78B |
Graphic Packaging Technical Analysis
Neutral
11.42
Price Trends
9.68
Negative
10.23
Negative
10.64
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.27
Negative
46.44
Neutral
66.17
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 11.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.67, above the 50-day MA of 9.68, and above the 200-day MA of 10.64, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GPK.
Graphic Packaging Risk Analysis
Graphic Packaging disclosed 14 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Graphic Packaging reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Graphic Packaging Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $12.76B | 16.27 | 27.10% | 1.12% | 13.83% | -11.08% | |
67 Neutral | $4.15B | 15.41 | 11.69% | 2.11% | 8.43% | -9.80% | |
65 Neutral | $21.32B | 17.46 | 9.49% | 5.64% | 56.62% | 32.08% | |
62 Neutral | $21.88B | 44.05 | 2.68% | 4.27% | 1.69% | 42.09% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $2.60B | 13.29 | 5.92% | 5.02% | 0.02% | -63.11% | |
53 Neutral | $4.96B | -23.75 | -6.12% | 4.27% | 3.57% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GPK
Graphic Packaging
8.77
-7.91
-47.43%
CCK
Crown Holdings
117.29
19.42
19.85%
SLGN
Silgan Holdings
39.30
-4.52
-10.32%
SON
Sonoco Products
50.12
12.29
32.50%
SW
Smurfit Westrock
41.85
0.22
0.53%
AMCR
Amcor
46.11
7.13
18.29%
Graphic Packaging Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Graphic Packaging Appoints Aditya Gandhi Chief Accounting Officer
Positive
Sep 28, 2026
On September 28, 2026, Graphic Packaging Holding Company appointed Aditya J. Gandhi, 46, as Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, reporting to Interim Chief Financial Officer Charles D. Lischer. Gandhi, a Certified Public Accountant with a ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Graphic Packaging Highlights Fall 2026 Strategy and Sustainability
Positive
Sep 28, 2026
On September 28, 2026, Graphic Packaging representatives planned to meet investors to discuss its Fall 2026 corporate governance and stewardship strategy, highlighting a clear investment thesis built on sustainable packaging, innovation, and a glo...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Graphic Packaging Issues Tax-Exempt Green Bonds to Refinance Debt
Positive
Sep 3, 2026
On September 3, 2026, Graphic Packaging International entered into a loan agreement with the Mission Economic Development Corporation tied to MEDC’s issuance of $115.2 million in tax-exempt green bonds due 2064, with a mandatory purchase dat...
Business Operations and StrategyLegal Proceedings
Graphic Packaging Faces New Derivative Lawsuit Challenging Governance
Negative
Aug 17, 2026
On August 14, 2026, a purported stockholder of Graphic Packaging Holding Company filed a derivative lawsuit against the company and certain current and former officers and directors, alleging violations of federal securities laws, breach of fiduci...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.