Want to see GPK full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Graphic Packaging
(NYSE:GPK)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▲(4.36% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
GPK scores modestly below average, driven primarily by weakening financial performance (sharp TTM revenue decline and margin compression) and ongoing leverage risk despite improving trends. Offsetting factors include neutral-to-improving technicals, a supportive dividend with reasonable P/E, and earnings-call actions focused on pricing, cost savings, capex discipline, and higher 2026 cash flow to enable debt reduction.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation and Cost Discipline
Positive operating cash flow and a planned step-up in adjusted cash flow indicate the core business can fund investment and deleveraging. Cost savings, pricing actions and capex discipline are intended to improve cash resilience despite inflation.
Negative Factors
Revenue and Margin Contraction
TTM revenue fell 18.5% and net margin declined to about 3.2% from 5.2% in 2025 and 7.7% in 2023. This weak earnings base reduces resilience and makes sustained recovery dependent on volume, mix and execution.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation and Cost Discipline
Positive operating cash flow and a planned step-up in adjusted cash flow indicate the core business can fund investment and deleveraging. Cost savings, pricing actions and capex discipline are intended to improve cash resilience despite inflation.
Read all positive factors
Graphic Packaging Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much sales come from each of the company’s business lines (for example consumer packaging, foodservice, beverage and any specialty segments). Helps investors see where growth and risk are concentrated, whether the company is diversified across end markets, and which segments are driving margin and pricing power — important for evaluating demand sensitivity to consumer trends and commodity cycles.
Shows how much sales come from each of the company’s business lines (for example consumer packaging, foodservice, beverage and any specialty segments). Helps investors see where growth and risk are concentrated, whether the company is diversified across end markets, and which segments are driving margin and pricing power — important for evaluating demand sensitivity to consumer trends and commodity cycles.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGraphic Packaging (GPK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.26B
Dividend Yield4.01%
Average Volume (3M)4.87M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.7
Beta (1Y)0.84
Revenue Growth0.02%
EPS Growth-63.11%
CountryUS
Employees23,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.66
Shares Outstanding296,071,560
10 Day Avg. Volume4,661,677
30 Day Avg. Volume4,865,109
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.33
Price to Book (P/B)1.34
Price to Sales (P/S)0.52
P/FCF Ratio-55.15
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.80Price Target Upside7.08% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.73
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.62B
Graphic Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) is a global producer of consumer packaging focused primarily on fiber-based (paperboard) packaging solutions. The company designs and manufactures folding cartons, foodservice packaging (such as paper cups, ...
How the Company Makes Money
Graphic Packaging makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling fiber-based packaging products to brand owners, foodservice operators, and consumer packaged goods companies. Its core revenue streams typically include: (1) Folding cartons: rev...
Graphic Packaging Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a cautiously constructive tone: management acknowledged meaningful near-term headwinds (broader and higher-than-expected inflation, inventory timing issues, segment softness and YoY EBITDA decline) but outlined concrete mitigation steps — stronger-than-expected cost savings, disciplined capex and working capital actions, multiple pricing initiatives, strategic portfolio rationalization, and a large uplift in 2026 cash flow guidance. Operational and commercial initiatives (URB launch, patents, customer wins) support medium-term upside, while inflation and inventory timing present near-term pressure.Positive Updates
Solid Quarterly Results and Margin Expansion
Q2 net sales of $2.2B (down 1% YoY) with adjusted EBITDA of $247M and adjusted EPS of $0.14; adjusted EBITDA margin expanded sequentially to 11.3% (up ~50 bps Q/Q).
Negative Updates
Year-over-Year Profitability Pressure
Q2 adjusted EBITDA declined $89M YoY (~26% decline from prior-year quarter) driven largely by inflation and mix; full-year adjusted EBITDA now expected at the low end of guidance ($1.05B–$1.25B) due primarily to higher-than-expected inflation.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Solid Quarterly Results and Margin Expansion
Q2 net sales of $2.2B (down 1% YoY) with adjusted EBITDA of $247M and adjusted EPS of $0.14; adjusted EBITDA margin expanded sequentially to 11.3% (up ~50 bps Q/Q).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Graphic Packaging updated 2026 guidance to reflect higher inflation but stronger cost actions: full‑year adjusted EBITDA is now expected at the low end of the $1.05B–$1.25B range, adjusted cash flow is revised to $600M–$700M (midpoint $650M, vs. $169M in 2025), and adjusted EPS is guided to $0.65–$0.90; Q3 adjusted EBITDA is targeted at $280M–$300M. Q2 results included net sales of $2.2B, adjusted EBITDA $247M (11.3% margin), adjusted EPS $0.14, adjusted cash flow $138M (+$55M YoY), net debt down $100M to $5.5B (net leverage ~4.7x, targeting ~4.6x YE) and a plan to pay down $400M–$500M of debt in 2026. The company now models incremental input cost inflation of about $150M for the year (vs. prior $60–65M), offset by roughly $85M of in‑year cost savings (vs. prior $60M) and pricing actions expected to add ~ $60M to 2026 sales/EBITDA with an approximate $145M annualized run‑rate; capex is now expected below $450M, H1 inventory was reduced by ~$75M but year‑end inventory is expected at 18%–19% of sales, and interest expense is modeled at about $275M.Graphic Packaging Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.64B | 8.62B | 8.81B | 9.43B | 9.44B | 7.16B |
| Gross Profit | 1.33B | 1.61B | 2.00B | 2.19B | 1.82B | 1.08B |
| EBITDA | 919.00M | 1.34B | 1.67B | 1.79B | 1.47B | 895.00M |
| Net Income | 194.00M | 444.00M | 658.00M | 723.00M | 522.00M | 204.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.66B | 11.78B | 11.14B | 11.18B | 10.33B | 10.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 205.00M | 261.00M | 157.00M | 162.00M | 150.00M | 172.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.81B | 5.87B | 5.46B | 5.62B | 5.50B | 6.06B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.42B | 8.44B | 8.13B | 8.39B | 8.18B | 8.56B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.24B | 3.34B | 3.01B | 2.78B | 2.15B | 1.89B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 189.00M | -81.00M | -363.00M | 340.00M | 541.00M | -193.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 793.00M | 841.00M | 840.00M | 1.14B | 1.09B | 609.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -360.00M | -732.00M | -342.00M | -1.02B | -435.00M | -2.39B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -348.00M | -18.00M | -489.00M | -106.00M | -666.00M | 1.78B |
Graphic Packaging Technical Analysis
Negative
11.02
Price Trends
10.94
Positive
10.42
Positive
12.08
Negative
Market Momentum
0.15
Positive
44.88
Neutral
16.79
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.44, above the 50-day MA of 10.94, and below the 200-day MA of 12.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.79 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GPK.
Graphic Packaging Risk Analysis
Graphic Packaging disclosed 14 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Graphic Packaging reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Graphic Packaging Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $22.54B | 32.52 | 14.86% | 2.06% | 10.35% | -23.16% | |
71 Outperform | $5.61B | 8.76 | 18.34% | 3.66% | 12.01% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $4.40B | 16.34 | 11.69% | 1.77% | 8.43% | -9.80% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
52 Neutral | $3.26B | 16.67 | 5.92% | 3.99% | 0.02% | -63.11% | |
49 Neutral | $1.02B | -0.86 | -107.76% | ― | -1.85% | -352.80% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GPK
Graphic Packaging
10.97
-11.02
-50.11%
OI
O-I Glass
6.36
-6.63
-51.04%
PKG
Packaging
250.30
56.83
29.37%
SLGN
Silgan Holdings
41.12
-3.59
-8.03%
SON
Sonoco Products
57.20
12.73
28.63%
Graphic Packaging Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyLegal Proceedings
Graphic Packaging Faces New Derivative Lawsuit Challenging Governance
Negative
Aug 17, 2026
On August 14, 2026, a purported stockholder of Graphic Packaging Holding Company filed a derivative lawsuit against the company and certain current and former officers and directors, alleging violations of federal securities laws, breach of fiduci...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Graphic Packaging Shareholders Approve Governance and Rights Reforms
Positive
Jun 16, 2026
At its June 11, 2026 annual meeting, Graphic Packaging shareholders approved amendments to the company’s charter to declassify the board over three years, moving to annual director elections starting with the 2029 meeting, and to allow one o...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Graphic Packaging Appoints New Board Chairman After Retirement
Neutral
Jun 11, 2026
Graphic Packaging announced that, effective June 11, 2026, Chairman Philip R. Martens retired from the board following the company’s Annual Meeting of Stockholders, ending a tenure that began as director in 2013 and chair in 2016. The board ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Graphic Packaging Secures Long-Term Tax-Exempt Green Bond Financing
Positive
May 26, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Graphic Packaging International entered into a loan agreement with the Mission Economic Development Corporation tied to MEDC’s issuance of about $141.4 million in tax‑exempt green bonds due 2064, with a mandatory purch...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.