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National Vision Holdings
(NASDAQ:EYE)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$18.50
▲(3.53% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
The score is held back primarily by weaker cash-flow quality despite improving earnings and only modest balance-sheet improvement, plus bearish technical positioning with the stock trading below key moving averages. The latest earnings call was a positive offset due to raised profitability guidance and operational momentum, while valuation remains a moderate headwind given the ~30x P/E and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Revenue and Profitability Recovery
The return to positive earnings alongside strong revenue growth indicates meaningful operational recovery. Although margins remain modest, sustained sales expansion and improved profitability can strengthen the earnings base over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Persistent Traffic Pressure and Conservative Top-Line Outlook
Traffic weakness suggests value-sensitive customers are delaying or deferring purchases, which could constrain store productivity and limit operating leverage. A cautious sales outlook also increases dependence on ticket growth to offset lower transaction volumes.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and Profitability Recovery
The return to positive earnings alongside strong revenue growth indicates meaningful operational recovery. Although margins remain modest, sustained sales expansion and improved profitability can strengthen the earnings base over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
National Vision Holdings (EYE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.33B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.6
Beta (1Y)0.97
Revenue Growth7.84%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees13,138
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.63
Shares Outstanding79,069,310
10 Day Avg. Volume2,157,339
30 Day Avg. Volume2,105,063
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.35
Price to Book (P/B)2.36
Price to Sales (P/S)1.03
P/FCF Ratio27.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$27.71Price Target Upside55.09% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)1.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.06B
National Vision Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
National Vision Holdings, Inc. operates as a leading optical retail chain across the United States, conducting business through its various subsidiary companies. The company's operations are categorized into two primary divisions: Owned & Host, an...
How the Company Makes Money
National Vision primarily makes money by selling optical products and related services through its retail and vision-center network. Its core revenue streams include: (1) Eyeglasses and frames: revenue from selling frames and completed prescriptio...
National Vision Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a constructive tone: the company delivered modest top‑line growth while producing strong ticket expansion, meaningful margin improvement and raised profitability guidance. Management emphasized durable strategic progress — e‑commerce modernization, premium product adoption, store segmentation and cost savings — that is already translating into higher‑value transactions and operating leverage. Key near‑term challenges include a significant traffic decline driven by deferral of lower‑value transactions and a temporary replatform disruption (estimated ~150 bps drag), plus elevated inventory and transition charges. On balance the positive operational and profitability momentum, clear multi‑year playbook and upgraded profit outlook outweighed the near‑term traffic and execution risks discussed on the call.Positive Updates
Revenue and Comparable Store Sales Growth
Net revenue increased 2.5% to $499.0M in Q2 2026; adjusted Comparable Store sales grew 2.2% (company estimates the e‑commerce replatform reduced comps by ~150 basis points; excluding that impact America's Best would have delivered slightly over 4% adj. Comp Store sales).
Negative Updates
Traffic Decline and Deferral of Lower‑Value Transactions
Customer traffic declined 4.9% in Q2; management cited deferral among value‑seeking customers (transactions below the median) causing reduced lower‑value visits and a ~2‑week increase in purchase cycle for those cohorts (equivalent to ~2% headwind to traffic on a full‑year basis).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Comparable Store Sales Growth
Net revenue increased 2.5% to $499.0M in Q2 2026; adjusted Comparable Store sales grew 2.2% (company estimates the e‑commerce replatform reduced comps by ~150 basis points; excluding that impact America's Best would have delivered slightly over 4% adj. Comp Store sales).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
National Vision raised profitability guidance while narrowing top‑line expectations, now forecasting full‑year net revenue of $2.03–$2.08 billion with adjusted Comparable Store sales of +3% to +5%, adjusted operating income of $119–$139 million (with depreciation & amortization of $92–$93 million) — the midpoint implying ~120 bps of adjusted operating margin expansion vs. 2025 (Q3/Q4 expected flat‑to‑modest margin expansion) — and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.90–$1.09 on ~80.9 million diluted shares; management expects ticket initiatives (Nikon Eyes, store segmentation, premium assortments) to add ~100–200 bps to ticket growth in H2, has incorporated an expected ~$5 million tariff refund (benefiting Q3 costs), remains on track for ~$10 million of annualized cost savings, sees interest expense of $11–$13 million and an effective tax rate around 30%, plans CapEx of $72–$76 million to open ~30–35 stores (tracking toward the lower end) while closing ~15 (net +15–20), and enters the period with $36 million cash, $329.3 million total liquidity, $237.7 million net debt (~0.9x net debt/adjusted EBITDA), inventory up ~37% y/y (expected to moderate), and $30 million remaining on the share repurchase authorization after $20 million of repurchases in Q2.National Vision Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.03B | 1.99B | 1.82B | 2.13B | 1.64B | 2.08B |
| Gross Profit | 1.12B | 1.08B | 1.06B | 1.13B | 977.01M | 1.17B |
| EBITDA | 175.10M | 149.78M | 89.58M | 53.12M | 158.73M | 276.74M |
| Net Income | 50.29M | 29.60M | -28.50M | -65.90M | 42.12M | 128.24M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.98B | 2.13B | 2.01B | 2.17B | 2.29B | 2.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 36.00M | 38.71M | 73.95M | 149.90M | 229.43M | 305.80M |
| Total Debt | 697.01M | 694.60M | 816.03M | 923.15M | 1.00B | 973.25M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.09B | 1.26B | 1.19B | 1.34B | 1.39B | 1.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 897.00M | 869.53M | 816.33M | 829.42M | 901.11M | 925.98M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 49.08M | 73.45M | 38.14M | 58.26M | 5.65M | 163.42M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 129.61M | 146.29M | 133.65M | 173.03M | 119.20M | 258.94M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -78.44M | -76.61M | -96.09M | -115.82M | -110.89M | -92.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -63.84M | -104.62M | -113.34M | -136.81M | -84.56M | -234.32M |
National Vision Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
17.87
Price Trends
19.77
Negative
19.78
Negative
23.48
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.95
Positive
31.66
Neutral
8.81
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EYE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.78, below the 50-day MA of 19.77, and below the 200-day MA of 23.48, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.95 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.81 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EYE.
National Vision Holdings Risk Analysis
National Vision Holdings disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Vision Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
National Vision Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $23.59B | 20.22 | 45.40% | ― | 11.16% | 5.20% | |
70 Outperform | $1.53B | 8.28 | 23.11% | ― | 1.08% | 3.88% | |
69 Neutral | $18.34B | 14.53 | 42.82% | 4.47% | 1.45% | 65.55% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $18.91B | 529.31 | 0.72% | 3.37% | 5.47% | -95.54% | |
53 Neutral | $1.33B | 26.59 | 5.71% | ― | 7.84% | ― | |
53 Neutral | $3.74B | 5.06 | -61.76% | 4.02% | -2.18% | 14.77% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
EYE
National Vision Holdings
16.87
-6.24
-27.00%
BBY
Best Buy Co
87.49
14.51
19.88%
GPC
Genuine Parts Company
137.62
1.26
0.92%
BBWI
Bath & Body Works
18.97
-11.57
-37.89%
SBH
Sally Beauty
16.47
2.34
16.56%
ULTA
Ulta Beauty
557.11
27.61
5.21%
National Vision Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
National Vision Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
At its June 17, 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, National Vision Holdings, Inc. reported that shareholders re-elected eleven director nominees to serve until the 2027 annual meeting, indicating broad support for the existing board and continui...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
National Vision Reaffirms 2026 Outlook, Highlights E-Commerce Progress
Positive
Jun 3, 2026
National Vision Holdings, Inc. said it will reaffirm its fiscal 2026 outlook during the William Blair 46th Annual Growth Stock Conference on June 3, 2026, confirming previously issued full-year guidance. The company has completed the migration of ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.