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Brinker International
(NYSE:EAT)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$170.00
▲(7.50% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/18/26
The score is driven primarily by strengthening fundamentals (better growth, margins, and cash flow) and supportive technical uptrend signals. This is tempered by balance-sheet leverage risk and management’s acknowledgment of near-term margin pressure from inflation and higher operating costs; valuation appears reasonable but not meaningfully cheap based on the provided P/E and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Sustained Same‑Store Sales
Two decades of consecutive same‑store sales growth and clear market outperformance demonstrate durable brand demand and pricing power. Consistent comp growth indicates repeatable operations and customer loyalty that underpin sustainable revenue and unit economics over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Material leverage and a relatively small equity base amplify returns but reduce downside cushion. High leverage limits strategic optionality, increases refinancing risk if credit markets tighten, and makes earnings/cash flow volatility more damaging to solvency over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Same‑Store Sales
Two decades of consecutive same‑store sales growth and clear market outperformance demonstrate durable brand demand and pricing power. Consistent comp growth indicates repeatable operations and customer loyalty that underpin sustainable revenue and unit economics over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Brinker International Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Reveals profitability across various business segments, indicating which areas are driving earnings and where there might be challenges.
Reveals profitability across various business segments, indicating which areas are driving earnings and where there might be challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBrinker International (EAT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.50B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)897.30K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.7
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth11.75%
EPS Growth40.33%
CountryUS
Employees68,852
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.47
Shares Outstanding42,887,790
10 Day Avg. Volume955,647
30 Day Avg. Volume897,303
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.14
Price to Book (P/B)21.24
Price to Sales (P/S)1.46
P/FCF Ratio19.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.13
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.48
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.22
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.53
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$191.63Price Target Upside21.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)12.49
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.15B
Brinker International Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Brinker International, Inc., in collaboration with its subsidiaries, is engaged in the creation, management, and licensing of casual dining establishments across both domestic and international markets. Its business operations are structured aroun...
How the Company Makes Money
Brinker International makes money primarily by selling food and beverages through its restaurant brands. Its revenue model is a mix of (1) company-owned restaurant sales, where Brinker records revenue from guest checks across dine-in and off-premi...
Brinker International Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed broad operational momentum and top‑line strength—Chili's delivered sustained same‑store growth, market share gains, a highly encouraging chicken sandwich launch, EPS upside and active capital deployment—while also acknowledging tangible near‑term headwinds from commodity inflation, repair & maintenance catch‑up, margin pressure, and an underperforming Maggiano's that requires continued turnaround work. Management emphasized continued investments (reimages, technology, staffing optimization) to drive sustainable traffic and margin expansion.Positive Updates
Sustained Same‑Store Sales Growth
20th consecutive quarter of same‑store sales growth; consolidated comparable restaurant sales +3.3% in Q3 and Chili's same‑store sales +4.0% for the quarter. Chili's achieved mid‑single‑digit comps in February and March (5.9% each) and started April with continued mid‑single‑digit sales and positive traffic.
Negative Updates
Maggiano's Weak Performance
Maggiano's comp sales declined 4.6% with traffic down 10.4% in the quarter (partially impacted by weather and a holiday shift of ~2.1%). Maggiano's remains a small (~8% of company sales) but underperforming business that requires continued turnaround investments.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Sustained Same‑Store Sales Growth
20th consecutive quarter of same‑store sales growth; consolidated comparable restaurant sales +3.3% in Q3 and Chili's same‑store sales +4.0% for the quarter. Chili's achieved mid‑single‑digit comps in February and March (5.9% each) and started April with continued mid‑single‑digit sales and positive traffic.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Brinker updated fiscal 2026 guidance to annual revenues of $5.78–$5.82 billion and adjusted diluted EPS of $10.60–$10.85, with capital expenditures of $240–$250 million and a weighted average share count of 44.7–45.0 million; management assumes wage and commodity inflation in the low single digits and a tax rate of ~19%. They expect average annual unit volumes to approach $5.0 million, forecast year-over-year margin expansion of roughly 30–40 basis points, plan to complete another 8–10 Chili’s reimages this fiscal year (60–80 in FY27) en route to a 10% annual reimage cadence by 2028, and aim to ramp new-unit growth to a run rate by FY29; liquidity actions include repurchasing $108 million of stock in Q3 and the planned early call of the $350 million 8.25% bonds in FY27 using a $1 billion revolver.Brinker International Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.73B | 5.38B | 4.42B | 4.13B | 3.80B | 3.34B |
| Gross Profit | 2.64B | 982.40M | 627.30M | 500.10M | 499.20M | 503.30M |
| EBITDA | 807.20M | 719.70M | 400.70M | 314.20M | 325.70M | 351.60M |
| Net Income | 462.90M | 383.10M | 155.30M | 102.60M | 117.60M | 131.60M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.77B | 2.68B | 2.59B | 2.49B | 2.48B | 2.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 57.10M | 18.90M | 64.60M | 15.10M | 13.50M | 23.90M |
| Total Debt | 1.75B | 1.69B | 2.00B | 2.16B | 2.27B | 2.04B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.37B | 2.31B | 2.55B | 2.63B | 2.75B | 2.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 406.00M | 370.90M | 39.40M | -144.30M | -268.10M | -303.30M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 504.40M | 413.70M | 223.00M | 71.40M | 101.90M | 275.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 757.80M | 679.00M | 421.90M | 256.30M | 252.20M | 369.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -250.70M | -263.40M | -192.20M | -174.20M | -234.20M | -90.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -467.50M | -461.30M | -180.20M | -80.50M | -28.40M | -298.80M |
Brinker International Technical Analysis
Positive
158.14
Price Trends
149.60
Positive
148.27
Positive
143.98
Positive
Market Momentum
7.87
Negative
66.14
Neutral
68.98
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EAT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 158.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 165.26, above the 50-day MA of 149.60, and above the 200-day MA of 143.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 7.87 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EAT.
Brinker International Risk Analysis
Brinker International disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Brinker International reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Brinker International Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $11.94B | 28.98 | 28.21% | 1.63% | 10.25% | -3.61% | |
72 Outperform | $7.50B | 16.71 | 123.43% | ― | 11.75% | 40.33% | |
67 Neutral | $3.81B | 21.65 | 38.34% | 2.11% | 5.14% | 8.17% | |
66 Neutral | $10.70B | 101.45 | 12.07% | ― | 28.39% | 64.25% | |
62 Neutral | $4.32B | 39.23 | -15.30% | 0.45% | 8.96% | -32.63% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
51 Neutral | $2.32B | 53.05 | 8.02% | ― | 16.22% | 228.81% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
EAT
Brinker International
174.96
5.77
3.41%
TXRH
Texas Roadhouse
181.68
-1.82
-0.99%
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory
76.63
13.75
21.86%
SHAK
Shake Shack
54.26
-86.47
-61.44%
WING
Wingstop
158.47
-173.58
-52.28%
BROS
Dutch Bros Inc
64.93
-1.39
-2.10%
Brinker International Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Brinker International Announces Early Redemption of Senior Notes
Positive
Jun 17, 2026
On June 16, 2026, Brinker International, Inc. announced it has issued a notice of redemption for all of its outstanding 8.250% Senior Notes due July 15, 2030, effectively moving to retire this higher-cost debt earlier than scheduled. The redemptio...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.