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HF Sinclair Corporation
(NYSE:DINO)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$137.00
▲(46.93% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/09/26
DINO scores well primarily on improved TTM financial performance and a supportive earnings update highlighting strong profitability, liquidity, and shareholder returns. The score is tempered by cyclical earnings/cash-flow volatility and near-term operational/regulatory risks, plus technically overbought signals despite a clear uptrend.
Positive Factors
Strong earnings and cash generation
The TTM recovery has materially improved profitability and cash generation, giving HF Sinclair greater capacity to fund operations, capital projects and shareholder returns. This stronger internal funding base supports resilience over the next several quarters, although refining cycles remain important.
Negative Factors
Cyclical refining earnings
HF Sinclair’s earnings depend heavily on crack spreads, throughput and commodity conditions, which can change materially across the refining cycle. This volatility makes current profitability and cash generation less predictable and can pressure returns even with moderate leverage.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong earnings and cash generation
The TTM recovery has materially improved profitability and cash generation, giving HF Sinclair greater capacity to fund operations, capital projects and shareholder returns. This stronger internal funding base supports resilience over the next several quarters, although refining cycles remain important.
Read all positive factors
HF Sinclair Corporation Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down where sales are generated across regions and retail markets, revealing geographic exposure to fuel demand, local price differentials, and regulatory or supply risks that can materially affect HF Sinclair’s top line and margins.
Breaks down where sales are generated across regions and retail markets, revealing geographic exposure to fuel demand, local price differentials, and regulatory or supply risks that can materially affect HF Sinclair’s top line and margins.
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The Fly
The FlyHF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$22.27B
Dividend Yield1.62%
Average Volume (3M)2.53M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.9
Beta (1Y)0.47
Revenue Growth16.26%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees5,165
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.53
Shares Outstanding177,783,840
10 Day Avg. Volume1,907,300
30 Day Avg. Volume2,527,771
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.94
Price to Sales (P/S)0.32
P/FCF Ratio9.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.61
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.43
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.39
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.74
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$125.45Price Target Upside34.55% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)18.82
Revenue Forecast (FY)$34.99B
HF Sinclair Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
HF Sinclair Corporation operates as a prominent independent energy enterprise, engaged in the production and commercialization of a diverse array of petroleum products. Its offerings include conventional fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fue...
How the Company Makes Money
HF Sinclair primarily makes money by buying crude oil and other feedstocks, processing them in its refineries, and selling the resulting refined products at market-based prices. Its core earnings driver is the refining margin (often called the “cr...
HF Sinclair Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented materially stronger financial performance and cash generation across the business with significant year-over-year increases in adjusted net income and adjusted EBITDA, solid liquidity and a clear capital return track record. Strategic actions — including the planned tax-efficient separation of the Lubricants & Specialties segment, network expansion in Marketing, and multi-phase midstream projects — were highlighted as value-enhancing moves. Notable negatives include the retirement of the Mississauga base oil facility, early-stage separation costs and uncertainties, regulatory RIN/FRE risk, and near-term impacts from planned turnarounds. On balance, operational strength, cash returns and sizable profitability gains outweigh the execution and regulatory risks discussed.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Profitability
Net income attributable to HF Sinclair shareholders of $892 million ($4.93/diluted share); adjusted net income of $960 million ($5.31/diluted share) versus $322 million ($1.70) in Q2 2025 — adjusted net income increased ~198% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Retirement of Mississauga Base Oil Refining Assets
Company announced plans to retire base oil refining assets in Mississauga. The closure signals loss of owned base oil production capacity and requires transition to third-party supply agreements; timing and community/operational impacts noted as difficult decisions.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Profitability
Net income attributable to HF Sinclair shareholders of $892 million ($4.93/diluted share); adjusted net income of $960 million ($5.31/diluted share) versus $322 million ($1.70) in Q2 2025 — adjusted net income increased ~198% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: management left full‑year 2026 capital spending unchanged (subject to change) and guided third‑quarter refining runs of 590,000–620,000 bpd reflecting the El Dorado turnaround starting in September (El Dorado vacuum furnace project to enable processing of up to an additional ~10,000 bpd when completed during the fall turnaround). They expect to pursue FID on Go West Phase 1 this year (Phase 1 ~35,000 bpd targeted online in 2029, with multi‑phase potential up to ~140–150k bpd) and will carry excess cash while evaluating projects; full separation of Lubes & Specialties is planned as a tax‑efficient, capital‑light spin with LTM EBITDA targeted at ~$300–350M and retirement of the Mississauga base‑oil assets with third‑party supply arrangements. Key Q2 metrics underpinning guidance: crude oil charge averaged ~640,000 bpd (vs. 616,000 bpd LY); consolidated Q2 adjusted EBITDA $1.5B (Refining $1.0B; Lubes & Specialties $207M; Renewables $123M; Midstream $112M; Marketing $28M); Q2 net income attributable $892M ($4.93/sh) and adjusted net income $960M ($5.31/sh); net cash from operations $1.5B (including $56M turnaround spend); Q2 capex $118M; liquidity ~ $4.26B (cash ~$2.26B + $2.0B undrawn revolver); debt outstanding ~$2.8B with debt/cap ~21% and net debt/cap ~4%. Capital return and marketing targets: returned $265M in the quarter ($89M dividends, $179M buybacks), declared a $0.525 quarterly dividend (+5%), have returned ~$5.2B and repurchased >68M shares since March 2022, are tracking toward a ~50% payout objective (YTD ~40%), added 63 branded sites in Q2 with >100 in the pipeline and expect ~10% annual branded site growth.HF Sinclair Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
73
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 31.23B | 26.87B | 28.58B | 31.96B | 38.20B | 18.39B |
| Gross Profit | 3.99B | 1.39B | 3.21B | 5.14B | 6.82B | 2.63B |
| EBITDA | 3.63B | 1.86B | 1.22B | 3.11B | 4.77B | 1.42B |
| Net Income | 1.92B | 579.00M | 177.00M | 1.59B | 2.92B | 558.32M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 18.99B | 16.73B | 16.64B | 17.72B | 18.35B | 12.92B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.26B | 978.00M | 800.00M | 1.35B | 1.67B | 234.44M |
| Total Debt | 2.86B | 3.23B | 3.10B | 3.22B | 3.72B | 3.55B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.64B | 7.48B | 7.30B | 7.48B | 8.33B | 6.62B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.29B | 9.18B | 9.28B | 10.17B | 9.24B | 5.69B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.55B | 866.00M | 640.00M | 1.91B | 3.25B | -406.73M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.78B | 1.31B | 1.11B | 2.30B | 3.78B | 406.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -603.00M | -516.00M | -468.00M | -371.32M | -774.49M | -1.33B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -792.00M | -631.00M | -1.18B | -2.24B | -1.56B | -211.80M |
HF Sinclair Corporation Technical Analysis
Positive
93.24
Price Trends
110.37
Positive
94.57
Positive
76.60
Positive
Market Momentum
4.50
Positive
65.14
Neutral
34.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DINO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 93.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 119.99, below the 50-day MA of 110.37, and above the 200-day MA of 76.60, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.50 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 65.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DINO.
HF Sinclair Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $22.27B | 11.89 | 19.86% | 1.62% | 16.26% | ― | |
77 Outperform | $122.88B | 9.59 | 49.94% | 1.11% | 24.82% | 826.42% | |
75 Outperform | $115.26B | 16.38 | 24.45% | 1.73% | 15.60% | 322.30% | |
75 Outperform | $9.55B | 7.01 | 24.08% | 1.37% | 13.54% | ― | |
74 Outperform | $132.17B | 16.20 | 48.71% | 0.85% | 15.19% | 331.26% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
51 Neutral | $6.23B | 89.88 | 10.48% | 0.92% | 17.88% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.