Allstate (ALL) AI Stock Analysis

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Allstate

(NYSE:ALL)

77Outperform

Allstate's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance with solid revenue growth and cash flow management. The company's strategic initiatives, such as market expansion and cost reduction, are promising, although profitability pressures and external challenges persist. The stock's valuation is fair, with a reasonable P/E ratio and a decent dividend yield, making it an attractive investment option. Positive market momentum further supports the stock's potential.

Positive Factors

Customer Acquisition

New policy applications were up 31% compared to the previous year, indicating growth in customer acquisition.

Earnings Performance

Allstate's first-quarter operating EPS beat consensus, driven by core loss ratio outperformance across both the auto and homeowners book.

Potential Growth

Allstate has ample catalysts for growth, including further earnings upside and potential upward revisions.

Negative Factors

Catastrophe Losses

Allstate has experienced the highest first-quarter catastrophe losses in the recent past.

Growth Estimate

Allstate's 30bps April PIF miss vs. estimate drives growth estimate lower, to +2.6% (from +2.9%).

Market Competition

The evolution of the competitive environment will be critical as more carriers are ready to compete for market share, with the broader auto insurance market seen as largely a zero sum game.

Allstate (ALL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$53.12B

Dividend Yield1.83%

Average Volume (3M)1.76M

Price to Earnings (P/E)13.7

Beta (1Y)0.44

Revenue Growth11.49%

EPS Growth219.86%

CountryUS

Employees55,000

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength84

IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)3.53

Shares Outstanding264,817,500

10 Day Avg. Volume1,383,731

30 Day Avg. Volume1,758,129

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-1.02

Price to Book (P/B)2.45

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio6.03

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$232.23

Price Target Upside11.08% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering15

Allstate Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAllstate Corporation (ALL) is a leading American insurance company primarily engaged in the property and casualty insurance sector. Founded in 1931 and headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois, Allstate provides a wide range of insurance products, including auto, home, life, and commercial insurance, to individual and business customers. The company operates through several subsidiaries and brands, offering its services through a network of agents, direct sales, and online platforms.

How the Company Makes MoneyAllstate makes money primarily through the underwriting and investment of insurance products. The company's key revenue streams include premiums earned from policyholders for various types of insurance coverage such as auto, homeowners, and life insurance. Additionally, Allstate generates income through investment activities, utilizing the funds collected from premiums to invest in diversified portfolios of securities, which provide returns that contribute to the company's earnings. Significant partnerships with independent agents and digital distribution channels also play a crucial role in expanding their market reach and customer base, enhancing Allstate's revenue generation capabilities.

Allstate Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Property-Liability Premiums

Property-Liability Premiums
Tracks premiums collected from property and liability insurance, offering a view of revenue stability and exposure to claims in these areas.

Chart InsightsAllstate's Property-Liability premiums have shown robust growth, with significant increases in both written and earned premiums. The latest earnings call highlights a strategic push to expand market share and improve pricing competitiveness, evidenced by a 27% rise in personalized new business. However, challenges such as high catastrophe losses and retention issues could impact future profitability. Despite these hurdles, Allstate's focus on cost-cutting and efficiency improvements, alongside a strong reinsurance program, positions it well to navigate these challenges and sustain growth.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Allstate Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Allstate's financial performance is solid with improvements in profitability and cash flow. Revenue grew by 12.26%, and the net profit margin turned positive to 7.28% in 2024. The balance sheet is strong with no debt, and cash flow metrics are favorable. However, missing EBIT and EBITDA data for 2024 limit a comprehensive analysis of operational efficiency.

Income Statement

Positive

Allstate's revenue has shown positive growth, with a 12.26% increase from 2023 to 2024. The net profit margin improved significantly from a negative margin in 2023 to 7.28% in 2024, indicating a rebound in profitability. However, historical EBIT and EBITDA data are missing for 2024, limiting a full analysis of operating efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's balance sheet is generally strong, with no outstanding debt in 2024, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of zero. The equity ratio stands at 19.21%, indicating a stable financial structure. However, the return on equity (ROE) improved to 21.77% in 2024, reflecting enhanced earnings power.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Allstate's free cash flow demonstrated robust growth, more than doubling from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.91 for 2024, highlighting efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also favorable, indicating healthy cash flow management.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
65.30B	64.11B	57.09B	51.41B	50.59B	44.79B
	Gross Profit
65.30B	64.11B	49.96B	43.97B	43.33B	39.06B
	EBIT
5.26B	6.22B	0.00	-1.47B	716.00M	5.89B
	EBITDA
5.82B	6.16B	703.00M	-807.00M	7.57B	7.59B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
4.04B	4.67B	-188.00M	-1.36B	5.16B	5.58B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
840.00M	704.00M	722.00M	736.00M	763.00M	311.00M
	Total Assets
115.16B	111.62B	103.36B	97.99B	99.44B	125.99B
	Total Debt
0.00	7.49B	7.59B	7.21B	7.98B	7.83B
	Net Debt
7.25B	6.78B	6.87B	6.48B	7.21B	7.51B
	Total Liabilities
93.11B	90.25B	85.73B	80.63B	74.31B	95.77B
	Stockholders Equity
22.05B	21.44B	17.77B	17.49B	25.18B	30.22B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
8.97B	8.72B	3.96B	4.70B	4.77B	5.18B
	Operating Cash Flow
9.23B	8.93B	4.23B	5.12B	5.12B	5.49B
	Investing Cash Flow
-8.17B	-8.25B	-3.00B	-1.73B	510.00M	-3.44B
	Financing Cash Flow
-865.00M	-697.00M	-1.24B	-3.42B	-5.24B	-2.01B

Allstate Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price209.06

Price Trends

50DMA

200.01

Positive

100DMA

195.02

Positive

200DMA

191.26

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

2.29

Negative

RSI

65.34

Neutral

STOCH

77.67

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 209.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 199.20, above the 50-day MA of 200.01, and above the 200-day MA of 191.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALL.

Allstate Risk Analysis

Allstate disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Allstate reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Allstate Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (64)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WRB	82 Outperform	$26.94B	16.47	20.73%	0.44%	11.39%	14.76%
ALL	77 Outperform	$53.12B	13.71	19.88%	1.83%	11.49%	219.86%
CINF	76 Outperform	$22.87B	15.96	10.97%	2.21%	2.44%	-38.76%
PGR	76 Outperform	$163.07B	18.73	34.34%	1.74%	20.74%	51.73%
CB	74 Outperform	$112.76B	13.55	13.40%	1.58%	9.09%	-7.55%
TRV	71 Outperform	$62.00B	14.75	16.05%	1.55%	9.60%	36.89%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$12.83B	9.83	7.64%	16985.66%	12.34%	-5.73%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ALL

Allstate

209.06

42.89

25.81%

Chubb

294.33

23.62

8.73%

CINF

Cincinnati Financial

150.86

33.73

28.80%

PGR

Progressive

286.03

81.01

39.51%

TRV

Travelers Companies

273.63

57.75

26.75%

WRB

W. R. Berkley Corporation

73.28

21.68

42.02%

Allstate Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 5.38%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mix of strong revenue growth and net income with significant challenges from catastrophe losses and retention issues. The company showed a strategic focus on growth and efficiency but faces external challenges impacting profitability.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Revenue Growth

Revenues were $16.5 billion in the first quarter, up 7.8% compared to the first quarter of 2024.

Net Income and Return on Equity

Allstate generated net income of $566 million in the quarter and adjusted net income of $949 million, which is $3.53 per diluted share. Adjusted net income return on equity was 23.7% over the last 12 months.

New Business Growth

Personalized new business was 2.8 million items, a 27% increase over the prior year.

Expense Ratio Improvement

The adjusted expense ratio improved by 6.7 points through cost-cutting measures like eliminating outsourcing and digitizing work.

Protection Services Expansion

Allstate Protection Plans business has grown over four times since acquisition, now serving 162 million customers in 18 countries.

Reinsurance Program Benefits

Reinsurance recoveries of $1.1 billion were primarily due to the California wildfires.

Homeowners Insurance Growth

Homeowners policies grew by 2.5% over the prior year, demonstrating growth potential.

Negative Updates

Increased Combined Ratio

The combined ratio of 97.4 was 4.4 points above the prior year quarter, primarily due to $3.3 billion in gross catastrophe losses.

Catastrophe Losses

Gross catastrophe losses, including from California wildfires, were significantly higher than the first quarter of last year, more than three standard deviations above the mean.

Retention Challenges

Although new business increased, overall auto policies in force declined slightly due to lower retention.

Company Guidance

During Allstate's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported strong financial performance with revenues reaching $16.5 billion, reflecting a 7.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Allstate achieved a net income of $566 million and an adjusted net income of $949 million, equating to $3.53 per diluted share. The adjusted net income return on equity was notably high at 23.7% over the past 12 months. The company outlined its strategy of increasing market share in personal Property-Liability and expanding protection services. In efforts to enhance customer value, Allstate improved its adjusted expense ratio by 6.7 points, enabling more competitive pricing. The Property-Liability segment showed positive momentum with a 27% increase in personalized new business, totaling 2.8 million items. The company also highlighted the completion of a $2 billion sale of its Employer Voluntary Benefits business and announced a quarterly dividend increase to $1 per share, along with a $1.5 billion share repurchase program.

Allstate Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Allstate Releases April 2025 Catastrophe Loss Report

Neutral

May 15, 2025

In April 2025, Allstate released its monthly report detailing estimated catastrophe losses and the number of policies in force. This announcement is crucial for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial health and operational resilience in the face of catastrophic events.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALL) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Allstate stock, see the ALL Stock Forecast page.

Spark’s Take on ALL Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, ALL is a Outperform.

Allstate’s overall stock score reflects strong financial performance with solid revenue growth and cash flow management. The company’s strategic initiatives, such as market expansion and cost reduction, are promising, although profitability pressures and external challenges persist. The stock’s valuation is fair, with a reasonable P/E ratio and a decent dividend yield, making it an attractive investment option. Positive market momentum further supports the stock’s potential.

To see Spark’s full report on ALL stock, click here.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Allstate Releases March 2025 Catastrophe Loss Report

Neutral

Apr 17, 2025

In March 2025, Allstate released its monthly report detailing estimated catastrophe losses and policies in force, which is available on their investor website. This announcement provides insights into the company’s financial health and operational impacts, potentially affecting stakeholders’ perspectives on Allstate’s market positioning.

Spark’s Take on ALL Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, ALL is a Outperform.

Allstate’s overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call outcomes, indicating solid growth and effective strategic moves. However, technical analysis suggests weak momentum, and valuation metrics, while favorable, do not significantly enhance the overall attractiveness. Challenges such as wildfire losses and auto insurance growth issues present risks.

To see Spark’s full report on ALL stock, click here.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.