Allstate AI Stock Analysis
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Allstate (ALL) AI Stock Analysis
Allstate
(NYSE:ALL)
ALL scores highly due to a materially improved financial profile (strong profitability, improved leverage, and robust free cash flow) and an attractive valuation (low P/E). Technicals are supportive with strong trend and momentum, though indicators are somewhat elevated. Earnings-call tone and guidance were positive, but repeatability risks (cat losses, rising auto trends, and non-repeatable reserve releases) temper the score.
Allstate Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Policies In ForceIndicates the total number of active insurance policies, reflecting customer base size and market penetration. A growing number suggests effective sales strategies and customer retention.
Policies in force have shifted from sluggish mid-cycle churn to clear, accelerating growth since 2023 — a trend management credits to targeted rate actions and market‑share gains across many states. That momentum underpins revenue and the aggressive buyback program, but don’t mistake unit growth for unalloyed margin improvement: a large portion of underwriting gains reflect favorable prior‑year reserve development and homeowners expense reallocation, so watch reserve normalization and homeowners profitability for true sustainability.
The FlyAllstate (ALL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $64.88B
- Dividend Yield
- 1.62%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 1.88M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 5.9
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.31
- Revenue Growth
- 5.06%
- EPS Growth
- 42.48%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 53,150
- Sector
- Financial
- Sector Strength
- 68
- Industry
- Insurance - Property & Casualty
Allstate Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Allstate Corporation, along with its affiliated entities, provides a comprehensive suite of property, casualty, and other insurance offerings throughout the United States and Canada. The company's operations are structured across four primary bus...
How the Company Makes Money
Allstate makes money primarily through (1) underwriting income from insurance operations, (2) net investment income earned on its investment portfolio (the “float” generated from holding policyholder premiums and reserves), and (3) fee and service re...
Allstate Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive overall. Management reported robust earnings, policy growth, profitable underwriting, expanding Protection Services, higher investment income, substantial shareholder returns, and significant progress in AI and Transformative Growth. The main challenges were higher catastrophe losses, rising auto loss and expense trends, declining average auto premiums, a negative quarterly investment return, pending New York product approval, and ongoing regulatory and technology-investment work. The highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated a mid-90s combined ratio target, described a 95 target and said that at a 95 combined ratio the business generates a return on economic capital that is “really attractive and above what the industry generates”; rates earn in over 12-18 months, direct “will continue to grow,” and the agency footprint could begin growing in late 2027 and into 2028. Sales-related AI capabilities and Allstate’s personal agentic assistant are planned for early 2027, agents can choose among three operating models in the middle of 2027, effective January 1st of 2028, and management said it would not forecast reserve releases in future earnings estimates.
Allstate Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial results show a strong rebound with sharply higher profitability (TTM net margin ~16.8%, EBIT margin ~21.9%), accelerating TTM revenue (~$69.5B), improved leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.23), and robust free cash flow (~$12.7B) that closely tracks earnings (~98% of net income). The main constraint is meaningful volatility/cyclicality (losses in 2022–2023 followed by a rapid recovery), which raises durability risk for current margins and returns.
Income Statement
86Very PositiveBalance Sheet
78PositiveCash Flow
83Very Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 69.47B | 66.46B | 63.52B | 56.59B | 50.62B | 48.68B |
| Gross Profit | 28.04B | 22.09B | 14.50B | 7.17B | 5.68B | 12.03B |
| EBITDA | 15.57B | 14.04B | 6.72B | 735.00M | -648.00M | 7.88B |
| Net Income | 11.64B | 10.28B | 4.67B | -188.00M | -1.29B | 1.61B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 127.85B | 119.76B | 111.62B | 103.36B | 97.99B | 99.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 76.75B | 5.57B | 5.24B | 5.87B | 4.91B | 4.77B |
| Total Debt | 7.49B | 7.49B | 8.09B | 7.94B | 7.96B | 7.98B |
| Total Liabilities | 95.56B | 89.17B | 90.25B | 85.73B | 80.63B | 74.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 32.31B | 30.61B | 21.44B | 17.77B | 17.49B | 25.18B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 12.73B | 9.88B | 8.72B | 3.96B | 4.70B | 4.77B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 12.97B | 10.11B | 8.93B | 4.23B | 5.12B | 5.12B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.29B | -7.25B | -8.25B | -3.00B | -1.73B | 510.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.06B | -2.88B | -697.00M | -1.24B | -3.42B | -5.24B |
Allstate Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 262.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 254.42, above the 50-day MA of 245.82, and above the 200-day MA of 229.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALL.
Allstate Risk Analysis
Allstate disclosed 6 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Allstate reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Latest Risks Added
3 New RisksAllstate Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
CB84Outperform
TRV84Outperform- ALL84Outperform
PGR83Outperform
CINF81Outperform
KMPR55Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB | 84Outperform | $141.03B | 12.86 | 15.06% | 1.07% | 5.89% | 19.00% |
| TRV | 84Outperform | $82.14B | 10.31 | 26.24% | 1.18% | 1.07% | 50.02% |
| ALL | 84Outperform | $64.61B | 5.86 | 36.32% | 1.62% | 5.06% | 42.48% |
| PGR | 83Outperform | $134.27B | 11.73 | 35.44% | 5.95% | 7.65% | 8.90% |
| CINF | 81Outperform | $29.15B | 11.10 | 16.53% | 1.94% | 9.91% | 26.90% |
| Sector * | 68Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
| KMPR | 55Neutral | $2.03B | -4.84 | -17.43% | 3.68% | -8.20% | -284.85% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL | Allstate Corp | 262.18 | 55.03 | 26.56% | |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 370.33 | 77.72 | 26.56% | |
| CINF | Cincinnati Financial | 189.78 | 27.42 | 16.89% | |
| PGR | The Progressive Corporation | 233.53 | 24.01 | 11.46% | |
| TRV | Travelers Companies Inc | 399.46 | 116.37 | 41.11% | |
| KMPR | Kemper Corp | 34.76 | -1.61 | -4.44% |
Allstate Corporate Events
Allstate Releases September 2026 Catastrophe Loss Update
NeutralAllstate reported that its September 2026 monthly release detailing estimated catastrophe losses has been made available to investors through its website. The disclosure, furnished as an exhibit rather than filed, underscores the company’s ongoing pr...
Allstate Issues August Catastrophe Loss Transparency Update
NeutralIn August 2026, Allstate released its monthly update on estimated catastrophe losses for investors, posting the information on its dedicated investor website. The disclosure, furnished as an exhibit rather than filed, reflects the company’s regular p...
Allstate Updates Investors on July Catastrophe Losses
NeutralIn July 2026, Allstate issued a monthly release detailing its estimated catastrophe losses, providing investors with updated information on the financial impact of severe events on its insurance portfolio. The disclosure was made available on the com...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 06, 2026