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Hartford Insurance
(NYSE:HIG)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$142.00
▲(2.73% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/30/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (growth, improved profitability, modest leverage, and solid free cash flow) and attractive valuation (low P/E). These positives are tempered by weak technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and earnings-call risk signals around reserve adverse development, personal lines pressure, and competitive dynamics.
Positive Factors
Sustained growth and profitability
Hartford has expanded both revenue and earnings over several years, indicating broad operating momentum rather than a single-period improvement. Higher profitability provides greater capacity to absorb claims volatility, invest in underwriting capabilities, and sustain shareholder returns over the coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Adverse liability and auto reserve development
Adverse development in general liability and commercial auto indicates that prior loss estimates are being revised upward. Continued reserve pressure could reduce underwriting profitability, create earnings volatility, and require additional capital for claims whose severity or frequency is proving higher than expected.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained growth and profitability
Hartford has expanded both revenue and earnings over several years, indicating broad operating momentum rather than a single-period improvement. Higher profitability provides greater capacity to absorb claims volatility, invest in underwriting capabilities, and sustain shareholder returns over the coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Hartford Insurance Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Income by Segment
Reveals profitability across different business units, highlighting which segments drive earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for growth.
Reveals profitability across different business units, highlighting which segments drive earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyHartford Insurance (HIG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$34.97B
Dividend Yield1.86%
Average Volume (3M)1.66M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.3
Beta (1Y)0.42
Revenue Growth5.95%
EPS Growth39.99%
CountryUS
Employees19,200
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)15.61
Shares Outstanding270,872,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,915,174
30 Day Avg. Volume1,660,503
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.36
Price to Book (P/B)2.05
Price to Sales (P/S)1.38
P/FCF Ratio6.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.18
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.24
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.27
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$146.59Price Target Upside6.05% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)12.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$28.96B
Hartford Insurance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and financial services to individual and business customers in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through Business Insuranc...
How the Company Makes Money
Hartford makes money primarily through (1) underwriting income from insurance operations and (2) investment income generated from investing premiums (“float”) before claims are paid.
1) Underwriting (insurance premiums minus losses and expenses)
...
Hartford Insurance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a majority of positive operational and financial outcomes: strong core earnings ($945M), an attractive trailing ROE (18.7%), meaningful book value expansion, robust investment income growth (+22% YoY), a sizable $4.2B buyback authorization and clear execution in small commercial and employee benefits. Offsetting these positives were pockets of reserve adverse development (general liability and commercial auto), a notable decline in personal insurance written premiums (auto -10%), elevated disability loss ratios, and signs of increased competitive pressure in middle & large commercial lines that are tempering growth expectations. Management emphasized disciplined underwriting, targeted pricing, continued investments in AI and technology, and confidence in capital returns, while acknowledging near-term volatility in loss experience and expense pressure from tech investments.Positive Updates
Strong Core Earnings and ROE
Core earnings of $945 million ($3.42 per diluted share) for the quarter with a trailing 12-month core earnings ROE of 18.7%, reflecting strong profitability and earnings power.
Negative Updates
Personal Insurance Premium Decline
Personal insurance written premiums declined 7% YoY (auto down 10%, home flat), reflecting elevated competition and pressure in the direct channel despite agency growth of 7%.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Core Earnings and ROE
Core earnings of $945 million ($3.42 per diluted share) for the quarter with a trailing 12-month core earnings ROE of 18.7%, reflecting strong profitability and earnings power.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company’s forward-looking commentary focused on capital deployment, investment income, and expense targets: the board approved a new $4.2 billion share‑repurchase authorization (through Dec‑2028), a $900 million (27%) increase over the prior $3.3 billion program, effective in addition to ~ $650 million remaining under the prior authorization; the firm repurchased 3.4 million shares for $450 million in Q2 and plans to increase quarterly repurchases to $475 million for the remainder of 2026. On investments, management expects net investment income to increase for full‑year 2026 with overall portfolio yields broadly in line with 2025 (annualized yield ex‑limited partnerships 4.7% before tax, up 20 bps from Q1), Q2 net investment income was $800 million (+22% YoY), and annualized limited partnership returns were 7.6% (first‑half) and are expected to remain generally consistent in H2. Operationally they remain on track for their 2027 year‑end expense targets (business insurance expense ratio 30.7, personal insurance 26.3 vs. 25.1 a year ago, employee benefits 25.2 vs. 25.7), while noting personal insurance faces nearer‑term pressure; key quarterly metrics included core earnings $945 million ($3.42/diluted share), trailing‑12m core earnings ROE 18.7%, and book value per share excl. AOCI $78.91 (+7% vs. year‑end, +15% YoY). Management also reiterated reserve and loss expectations: catastrophe current‑accident‑year losses $222 million (cat ratio 4.9 points) and six‑month reserve movements included roughly $110 million favorable in workers’ comp, ~$116 million adverse in general liability (including a $46 million prior‑year increase in the quarter) and ~$26 million adverse in commercial auto.Hartford Insurance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
79
Positive
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 29.03B | 28.26B | 26.38B | 24.33B | 21.85B | 21.65B |
| Gross Profit | 12.76B | 13.02B | 3.97B | 3.17B | 2.05B | 2.47B |
| EBITDA | 5.00B | 5.36B | 4.21B | 3.60B | 2.89B | 3.58B |
| Net Income | 4.37B | 3.84B | 3.11B | 2.50B | 1.82B | 2.37B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 87.98B | 86.00B | 80.92B | 70.10B | 73.02B | 76.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.99B | 4.49B | 4.25B | 126.00M | 4.09B | 46.75B |
| Total Debt | 4.37B | 4.37B | 4.37B | 4.36B | 4.36B | 4.94B |
| Total Liabilities | 68.35B | 67.02B | 64.47B | 54.77B | 59.39B | 58.73B |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.63B | 18.98B | 16.45B | 15.33B | 13.63B | 17.84B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.87B | 5.75B | 5.76B | 4.00B | 3.83B | 3.96B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.88B | 5.92B | 5.91B | 4.22B | 4.01B | 4.09B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.50B | -3.76B | -3.77B | -2.43B | -1.28B | -2.41B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.38B | -2.23B | -2.08B | -1.95B | -2.71B | -1.58B |
Hartford Insurance Technical Analysis
Negative
138.22
Price Trends
134.55
Negative
134.19
Negative
134.63
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.14
Negative
47.16
Neutral
89.00
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HIG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 138.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 128.71, above the 50-day MA of 134.55, and above the 200-day MA of 134.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.00 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HIG.
Hartford Insurance Risk Analysis
Hartford Insurance disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hartford Insurance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Hartford Insurance Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $4.92B | 4.69 | 21.34% | 0.05% | 20.88% | 445.91% | |
81 Outperform | $32.61B | 7.37 | 19.52% | 5.16% | -0.21% | 31.57% | |
77 Outperform | $992.98B | 12.98 | 11.86% | ― | 3.93% | 36.30% | |
75 Outperform | $34.97B | 8.27 | 22.99% | 1.86% | 5.95% | 39.99% | |
75 Outperform | $7.06B | 6.06 | 19.21% | 1.82% | 9.43% | 35.23% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
63 Neutral | $40.28B | 13.98 | 7.27% | 2.47% | -4.19% | 1.09% |
* Financial Sector Average
HIG
Hartford Insurance
129.11
2.64
2.09%
AIG
American International Group
77.04
-2.81
-3.52%
ACGL
Arch Capital Group
95.57
3.32
3.60%
AXS
Axis Capital
96.73
1.04
1.09%
WTM
White Mountains Insurance Group
2,060.63
158.26
8.32%
BRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway B
515.62
23.69
4.82%
Hartford Insurance Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Hartford Insurance Announces CEO Succession and Board Changes
Positive
Sep 30, 2026
On Sept. 30, 2026, The Hartford’s board announced that company president A. Morris “Mo” Tooker will become chief executive officer on March 1, 2027, succeeding long-time CEO Christopher Swift. Tooker was also elected to the board...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Hartford Insurance Ends Major Reinsurance Agreement, Boosts Income
Positive
Sep 25, 2026
On September 23, 2026, Hartford Fire Insurance Company and affiliated insurers entered into a Reinsurance Commutation and Release Agreement with Berkshire Hathaway’s National Indemnity Company, ending their Aggregate Excess of Loss Reinsuran...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Hartford Insurance appoints Priscilla Almodovar to board
Positive
Aug 11, 2026
On Aug. 11, 2026, The Hartford announced that Priscilla Almodovar, former president and CEO of Fannie Mae, has been elected to its board of directors effective Sept. 1, 2026, with roles on the Finance, Investment and Risk Management Committee and ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.