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Arbor Realty
(NYSE:ABR)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▼(-41.75% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/06/26
ABR scores below average primarily due to very weak technicals (deeply oversold and below all major moving averages) and pressured financial trends (revenue and net profitability down, leverage/ROE concerns). These are partially offset by resilient cash generation and recent financing actions that may support liquidity, plus a very high dividend yield that offers income appeal but also signals elevated risk.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Positive operating and free cash flow across all periods, plus a roughly 58% TTM increase, indicates that the business is converting its activity into cash. Full coverage of net income by free cash flow supports internal funding capacity, though financing needs remain relevant.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Debt at roughly 3.0x–5.0x equity in annual periods, including about 3.74x in 2025, leaves the mortgage REIT sensitive to funding conditions and asset-value movements. This leverage can amplify losses and constrain flexibility when credit markets weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Positive operating and free cash flow across all periods, plus a roughly 58% TTM increase, indicates that the business is converting its activity into cash. Full coverage of net income by free cash flow supports internal funding capacity, though financing needs remain relevant.
Read all positive factors
Arbor Realty (ABR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$539.15M
Dividend Yield32.41%
Average Volume (3M)6.57M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.2
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth-6.84%
EPS Growth-91.15%
CountryUS
Employees653
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.15
Shares Outstanding186,558,040
10 Day Avg. Volume8,414,836
30 Day Avg. Volume6,573,296
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.26
Price to Book (P/B)0.51
Price to Sales (P/S)1.24
P/FCF Ratio3.78
Enterprise Value/Market Cap23.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue10.37
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.27
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.83
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.67Price Target Upside-9.39% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)$459.98M
Arbor Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. invests in a diversified portfolio of structured finance assets in the multifamily, single-family rental, and commercial real estate markets in the United States. It operates in two segments, Structured Business and Agency...
How the Company Makes Money
Arbor Realty primarily makes money through two main business activities: (1) a balance-sheet lending and investment business and (2) an agency loan origination and servicing business.
1) Balance-sheet lending / structured finance (interest income...
Arbor Realty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed picture: management has achieved important operational and regulatory wins (legal dismissals, ~$100M reduction in nonperforming assets, strong CLO execution, diversified origination pipelines and stable funding costs) and has a clear plan to accelerate asset resolutions. However, substantial legacy nonperforming assets (~$1B), ongoing realized losses (~$15M–$25M per quarter), a higher-rate environment that slows resolutions, persistent OREO impairments and a thin net interest spread pose meaningful near-term headwinds. Management’s actions—dividend reset, accelerated dispositions, targeted reserves, and active origination across multiple verticals—are constructive, but material drag is expected through Q2–Q3 before improvement later in 2026 and into 2027.Positive Updates
Legal and Regulatory Resolution
Investigations opened after short reports are believed closed with no action; motion to dismiss class action was granted (claims dismissed without prejudice), removing costly distractions and allowing management to refocus on operations.
Negative Updates
Realized Losses and Ongoing Expected Losses
Recorded $23 million of one-time realized losses in Q1 on delinquent/REO resolutions (above prior guidance of ~$10 million); management estimates ongoing realized losses of ~$15 million–$25 million per quarter for the balance of the year.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Legal and Regulatory Resolution
Investigations opened after short reports are believed closed with no action; motion to dismiss class action was granted (claims dismissed without prejudice), removing costly distractions and allowing management to refocus on operations.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that Q1 distributable earnings were $37.4 million, or $0.18 per share, before $23 million of one‑time realized losses, and the Board reset the quarterly dividend to $0.17 per share (which management expects to cover for the rest of 2026); they see Q2 distributable earnings around $0.15 per share (reflecting roughly $0.02 per share of temporary financing drag) with a low point through Q2–Q3 and anticipated improvement in Q4 and into 2027. Key credit and resolution metrics: Q1 ended with about $500 million of delinquent loans and $500 million of REO (≈$1.0 billion total nonperforming assets, down ≈$100 million QoQ or ~9%), with $200 million of resolutions in Q1, line of sight on an additional $200–300 million of delinquencies to resolve in Q2–Q3 plus another ~$100 million by year‑end, expect to take back roughly another $100 million of assets (with $50–75 million likely by end‑Q2) and to reduce REO to roughly $250–300 million by end‑2026. Losses, reserves and impairments: management is reserving for ~$15–25 million of realized losses per quarter for the balance of the year, recorded $12 million of OREO impairments in Q1 and ~$21.5 million total OREO impairments/specific reserves, and carries CECL reserves of $131 million (≈1.1% of the portfolio)—which, together with REO write‑downs, implies roughly 1.7–1.8% coverage of delinquency+REO. Operational and funding metrics: Q1 production totaled $795 million on the agency platform (including an $88 million CMBS brokerage), $350 million closed through May, balance‑sheet originations were $400 million, SFR originations were ~$125 million in Q1 (management expects to exceed ~$300 million in the current quarter), construction closed $113 million in Q1 with a $250 million close expected in Q2 and a 2026 construction target of $750 million–$1 billion; balance‑sheet investment assets ≈$12 billion (all‑in yield 7.03%, avg core yield 7.5%), total debt on core assets ≈$10.7 billion (all‑in cost of debt ~6.4%, avg cost of funds 6.52%), and spot net interest spread flat at 63 bps.Arbor Realty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.20B | 1.21B | 627.52M | 719.01M | 654.07M | 661.48M |
| Gross Profit | 1.10B | 1.14B | 565.19M | 661.85M | 597.95M | 615.18M |
| EBITDA | 838.46M | 901.66M | 1.18B | 1.40B | 997.54M | 701.93M |
| Net Income | 57.69M | 148.80M | 264.64M | 371.43M | 325.78M | 339.30M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 14.35B | 14.49B | 13.49B | 15.74B | 17.04B | 15.07B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 287.52M | 482.88M | 503.90M | 935.52M | 535.86M | 406.25M |
| Total Debt | 11.09B | 11.05B | 10.04B | 12.12B | 13.57B | 12.15B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.47B | 11.43B | 10.34B | 12.48B | 13.97B | 12.52B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.78B | 2.95B | 3.02B | 3.12B | 2.94B | 2.42B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 283.83M | 396.35M | 461.52M | 235.86M | 1.10B | 216.85M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 311.76M | 396.35M | 461.52M | 235.86M | 1.10B | 216.85M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -887.36M | -1.31B | 1.15B | 1.88B | -2.32B | -6.75B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 654.82M | 798.75M | -2.49B | -1.83B | 1.57B | 6.89B |
Arbor Realty Technical Analysis
Negative
5.15
Price Trends
4.25
Negative
4.62
Negative
5.79
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.45
Negative
30.02
Neutral
44.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ABR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.28, above the 50-day MA of 4.25, and below the 200-day MA of 5.79, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 30.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ABR.
Arbor Realty Risk Analysis
Arbor Realty disclosed 71 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Arbor Realty reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Arbor Realty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
56 Neutral | $4.51B | 18.07 | 3.40% | 15.83% | 10.66% | -45.26% | |
54 Neutral | $539.15M | 19.21 | 1.99% | 32.41% | -6.84% | -91.15% | |
51 Neutral | $332.82M | -1.67 | -16.70% | 12.77% | -19.57% | -397.76% | |
48 Neutral | $182.53M | -41.97 | -0.88% | 18.99% | 28.95% | 76.08% | |
48 Neutral | $1.72B | 127.50 | 0.45% | 18.43% | -3.93% | ― | |
47 Neutral | $818.83M | 8.03 | 7.78% | 130.98% | -63.13% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
ABR
Arbor Realty
2.90
-7.32
-71.63%
ARI
Apollo Real Estate
6.34
0.06
0.89%
ACRE
Ares Commercial
3.16
-0.95
-23.02%
BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage
10.20
-6.19
-37.77%
STWD
Starwood Property
12.13
-4.38
-26.54%
KREF
Kkr Real Estate Finance
5.48
-2.35
-30.01%
Arbor Realty Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Arbor Realty Trust Announces Major CLO Securitization Financing
Positive
Aug 11, 2026
On August 11, 2026, Arbor Realty Trust closed an $825 million commercial real estate mortgage loan securitization structured as a collateralized loan obligation backed primarily by first-mortgage bridge loans. The issuing vehicle sold about $730.1...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.