Everything to Know about Macro and Markets
Stocks ended the week firmly in the green, with the S&P 500 (SPX) gaining 1.22%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rising 1.05%, and the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) jumping 2.22%. This was the third consecutive weekly gain for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100, which were both boosted by strong tech-sector momentum, while the DJIA logged its second straight positive week.
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Dot Plot Gains
All three major indexes hit all-time highs for the second consecutive session on Friday, propelled by the Federal Reserve’s outlook for two more rate cuts this year after its widely expected 0.25% reduction on Wednesday. While initially the market dipped after Fed Chair Powell described the move as “a risk-management cut,” the central bank’s rate projections chart, known as the “Dot Plot” – which showed rate reductions may have been pulled forward – reignited the optimism. The Fed held steady its forecast for inflation and unemployment, while raising its GDP growth forecast for this year, helping ease stagflation fears.
Investors repositioned around a more dovish monetary outlook, benefiting riskier trades such as growth stocks and small caps, as well as the broad tech sector. Tech leaders such as Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Tesla (TSLA), part of the “Magnificent Seven” group, saw outsized weekly gains, helping lift the broader technology sector and contributing to overall market strength.
Sentiment was also supported by positive vibes from the ongoing U.S.-China trade discussions, with the TikTok divestiture deadline extended again and possible deal – that would have Oracle (ORCL) and other U.S. firms take control of the app – starting to coalesce. However, China appears to be using pressure on Nvidia (NVDA) as a negotiation technique, with the country’s authorities banning its AI chips. The news weighed on the AI leader’s performance midweek, but the stock rebounded later on the news of its massive Intel (INTC) investment, adding support to the chip sector.
This year’s stock behavior is defying all market convictions, from “sell in May” to “September blues.” With the Fed starting an easing cycle in a non-recessionary environment and the AI narrative apparently having harnessed more wind in its sails than many previously believed, we could see further stock-market gains. However, investors may be overly optimistic now, judging by soaring inflows into U.S. equities. Year-to-date, these inflows have totaled $294 billion, already marking the third-highest annual inflows on record – despite more than three months left till year-end. Given that U.S. stock valuations are already elevated across the board, this exuberance could expedite a period of consolidation or choppiness – or a stock correction – even with the overall outlook pointing towards a continued rally.
Stocks That Made the News
▣ Intel (INTC) shares surged after Nvidia (NVDA) unveiled a $5 billion investment in the chipmaker, becoming one of Intel’s largest shareholders with an expected stake of 4% once the deal closes. The two companies plan to co-develop chips for PCs and data centers, blending Intel’s x86 architecture with Nvidia’s AI and graphics platforms. Despite the tie-up, Nvidia isn’t shifting manufacturing to Intel’s foundry arm just yet. Instead, it will continue to rely on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), whose leading-edge technology remains central to Nvidia’s flagship AI chips. Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang confirmed that TSMC will continue to provide foundry support for the advanced chips being developed in partnership with Intel. Meanwhile, Citi (C) downgraded INTC to “Sell” despite Nvidia’s move, citing the company’s high valuation relative to its fundamentals and expressing skepticism over the viability of Intel’s foundry ambitions, stating the foundry business “has minimal chance to succeed” without major customers like Nvidia or Apple (AAPL) committing to it.
▣ CrowdStrike (CRWD) closed the week up more than 17% after its Fal.Con 2025 investor day fueled optimism around growth and AI security leadership. The company set ambitious targets, including at least 20% net new ARR growth through FY27, $20 billion in ARR by FY36, and profitability goals of 24%+ operating margin and 30%+ free cash flow margin. CrowdStrike also showcased its Falcon Flex licensing, recent acquisitions such as Pangea, and international expansion potential. Analysts quickly raised price targets as shares broke above $500. Adding to the momentum, CRWD announced new partnerships: with Nvidia, integrating Charlotte AI AgentWorks with Nemotron models to create enterprise-grade AI security agents, and with Salesforce (CRM), embedding Falcon Shield and Charlotte AI into its platforms. The announcements underscore how CrowdStrike is weaving AI deeper into its security strategy.
▣ Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google announced a sweeping multi-year partnership with PayPal (PYPL) aimed at reimagining digital commerce through AI-driven payments. The deal embeds PayPal’s branded checkout, Hyperwallet, and Payouts solutions across Google’s key platforms – from Cloud and Ads to Play and YouTube – making PayPal Enterprise Payments a core processor within Google’s ecosystem.
For Google, the benefits are twofold: integrating PayPal’s trusted global infrastructure and identity services reduces friction and boosts conversion rates, while Google’s AI enhances PayPal’s security and checkout features for billions of users. Together, the companies plan to set standards for “agentic commerce,” using Google’s Agent Payments Protocol to enable AI agents that shop, compare, and transact autonomously on behalf of consumers. The alliance deepens Google’s control over commerce flows across its products, feeding more data into its AI and cloud engines, and reinforcing its role as a leading platform for merchants, developers, and consumers.
▣ Apple (AAPL) shares jumped last week, nearly erasing their year-to-date loss, on broad tech-sector optimism and analyst price-target upgrades following signs of strong demand for the latest iPhone model.
▣ Paramount Skydance (PSKY) surged over 25% last week, logging the best performance among the S&P 500 stocks, on continued buzz around its potential merger with Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD). According to media reports, the possible takeover offer could be mostly cash, with the backing from Oracle (ORCL) co-founder Larry Ellison, father of Paramount Skydance CEO David Ellison.
▣ FactSet Research Systems (FDS) was the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 last week, tumbling over 20%. The company missed earnings forecasts and cut its EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 below analyst consensus, flagging concerns about cost management and operational challenges.
Upcoming Earnings and Dividend Announcements
The Q2 2025 earnings season is over, but several notable releases are still scheduled for this week. The companies in focus are Micron (MU), AutoZone (AZO), Cintas (CTAS), Costco (COST), Accenture (ACN), and Jabil (JBL).
Ex-dividend dates are coming this week for Broadcom (AVGO), Meta Platforms (META), Lam Research (LRCX), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), Medtronic (MDT), Humana (HUM), and other dividend-paying firms.
For additional exclusive market insights and content from TipRanks Macro & Markets research analyst Yulia Vaiman, click here.