Everything to Know about Macro and Markets
Stocks sold off on Friday on rekindled trade-war fears, reversing the previous days’ gains and landing deep in the red for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tumbled 2.73%, the S&P 500 (SPX) lost 2.43%, and the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) was down 2.27%. The large-cap tech benchmark dropped harder than the two other key indexes on Friday, but earlier gains in Nvidia (NVDA) and a handful of other megacaps kept the weekly loss in check.
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U-Turn and Down
The volatile but largely positive week, which saw the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 hit record highs twice – on Monday and Wednesday – ended with a crash as trade war fears resurfaced. On Friday, President Trump threatened “massive” tariffs on China, triggering a steep sell-off in major indices, with technology and green energy sectors – heavily exposed to supply chains reliant on China and rare earth minerals – hit the hardest.
Semiconductor giants like Nvidia, AMD (AMD), and Broadcom (AVGO) saw shares tumble as markets worried about supply chain disruption, AI chip export controls, and regulatory actions in both the U.S. and China. Trump also hinted at canceling a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, scheduled later this month, emphasizing that the trade conflict had reignited due to China’s recent actions.
President Trump said he will impose an additional 100% tariff on goods from China – on top of the 30% tariffs already in effect – starting November 1 or sooner. While investors reacted to the President’s threats, they missed early cues from prior developments that led to his tariff threats. The massive escalation after months of a trade truce between the two nations isn’t a sudden eruption – it has been simmering under the surface for weeks.
Trade Game of Chicken
The immediate trigger for Trump’s fury was the Chinese announcement on October 9 about the implementation of new export controls on rare earth minerals – critical for technology manufacturing – requiring foreign companies to obtain licenses for exports of rare earths and related products starting December 1. These restrictions were seen as aggressive and aimed to tighten China’s dominance over key materials for electronics, defense, and semiconductor industries.
However, these rare earths restrictions were a culmination of a series of increasingly hostile measures by Chinese authorities. These included antitrust probes into Qualcomm (QCOM), the latest target in its “lawfare” against U.S. tech companies. It also intensified enforcement at ports against Nvidia’s AI chips, including increased inspections and scrutiny of shipments entering China. Alongside the rare earth export restrictions announced October 9, China also imposed export licenses and restrictions on lithium batteries, semiconductor equipment, and related materials. Moreover, China announced it would start collecting port fees on U.S. vessels and ships, regardless of cargo, and imposed new restrictions on U.S. vessels docking at Chinese ports, escalating maritime trade tensions.
Clearly, in addition to playing the long game of maintaining dominance in key high-tech supply chains such as semiconductors, AI, and defense materials, China has tried to use these steps as some kind of strategic leverage ahead of high-level discussions to pressure the U.S. into making concessions. It is also clear that this form of hardball diplomacy – designed to test U.S. resolve and extract favorable terms – doesn’t go down well with President Donald Trump. If China doesn’t swerve, it could face export controls, sanctions, investment restrictions, and more.
Stocks That Made the News
▣ Nvidia (NVDA) received approval from the U.S. Commerce Department to export its advanced chips to American companies such as Oracle (ORCL), Cisco Systems (CSCO), and others for use in projects in the United Arab Emirates. The approval marks significant progress in the U.S.-UAE AI partnership deal. However, after reaching another record high on Friday morning, the AI leader tumbled along with the stocks of AMD (AMD) and other chipmakers after the U.S. Senate passed a bill that would limit the amount of AI chips allowed to be exported to China. While it remains unclear whether the bill will become law, Trump’s threat of “massive” tariffs on China underlines a significant increase in trade hostilities between the countries, adding to the bill’s weight.
▣ Chip equipment stocks Lam Research (LRCX), Applied Materials (AMAT), and KLA Corp (KLAC) underperformed due to their larger-than-average exposure to China compared to the broader tech sector. Other companies that list China as one of their key markets – including Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) – also dropped sharply. In addition to having a large footprint in the Chinese market, Tesla is also dependent on rare earth minerals for EV production. Amazon (AMZN), which would be hit hard by increased tariffs on Chinese-made products, also saw its shares drop.
▣ Analysts’ optimism about Oracle (ORCL) stock continues to grow, as the company is expected to continue capitalizing on AI advances. In the latest action, Baird initiated coverage with a “Buy” rating and $365 price target, implying an upside of nearly 25%. Baird called Oracle the “AI juggernaut for the information age,” citing a virtuous cycle of accelerating AI capex and convergence of AI, data and use-cases that will emerge from the transition from training to inference, which all support ORCL’s premium valuation. Meanwhile, Evercore ISI and Citi maintained “Buy” ratings and raised their price targets, with the latter upping the PT to a Street-high $415 (upside of over 41%) on expectations of continued strong cloud growth. Oracle has been one of the strongest-conviction holdings in the TipRanks Smart Investor Portfolio, making subscribers a gain of 260% since December 21, 2022 (versus 70% for the S&P 500).
▣ Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) was one of the few tech stocks to flash bright green on Friday, rising over 16%. The high-performance compute provider saw multiple analyst price-target hikes after reporting blockbuster quarterly revenues and updating on favorable business momentum. APLD, a holding in TipRanks’ Smart Growth Portfolio, has delivered its subscribers a gain of 137% since its purchase on September 5, 2025.
▣ Vertiv Holdings (VRT) – another TipRanks Smart Investor Portfolio holding – also bucked the downtrend, finishing in the green on Friday and locking in a weekly gain. The AI infrastructure provider’s stock was lifted by continued analyst praise and price-target upgrades. Citi analysts have recently put VRT on a bullish 90-day catalyst watch, citing “increased conviction on robust data center infrastructure demand.”
▣ Delta Air Lines (DAL) gained on the week despite Friday’s drop, after the air carrier posted beats on both sales and profit in Q3 and a forecast for a strong final quarter, also lifting its full-year earnings and free cash flow guidance.
▣ PepsiCo (PEP) was another bright spot in the markets last week, with the stock rising as its Q3 results topped estimates. The CEO replacement, in response to pressure from activist investor Elliott Investment Management, was also seen by the markets as a positive development.
Upcoming Earnings and Dividend Announcements
The Q3 earnings season will officially open this week, and many notable releases are scheduled for the next five trading days. These include Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS), BlackRock (BLK), ASML Holding (ASML), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Progressive (PGR), TSMC (TSM), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), American Express (AXP), and Schlumberger (SLB).
Ex-dividend dates are coming this week for PNC Financial (PNC), McCormick & Company (MKC), AbbVie (ABBV), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), EOG Resources (EOG), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), and other dividend-paying firms.
For additional exclusive market insights and content from TipRanks Macro & Markets research analyst Yulia Vaiman, click here.