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Ermenegildo Zegna
(NYSE:ZGN)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
▲(2.56% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/15/26
Overall score reflects solid underlying financial quality (notably cash flow strength and improving balance sheet) and a generally constructive earnings outlook, but is held back by very weak technical momentum and a relatively demanding valuation (high P/E) alongside near-term growth risks such as wholesale contraction and segment transition headwinds.
Positive Factors
Direct-to-consumer mix and margin strength
A rising direct-to-consumer mix gives Zegna greater control over pricing, customer relationships, and merchandising while reducing reliance on intermediaries. The channel is already supporting gross-margin quality and operating leverage, creating a durable foundation for profitability as the network expands.
Negative Factors
Wholesale contraction limits growth
The deliberate reduction of wholesale can improve channel quality over time, but it creates a persistent near-term headwind to group revenue and limits distribution scale. Growth must therefore come from direct retail, e-commerce, and stronger brands quickly enough to offset the channel decline.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Direct-to-consumer mix and margin strength
A rising direct-to-consumer mix gives Zegna greater control over pricing, customer relationships, and merchandising while reducing reliance on intermediaries. The channel is already supporting gross-margin quality and operating leverage, creating a durable foundation for profitability as the network expands.
Read all positive factors
Ermenegildo Zegna (ZGN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.71B
Dividend Yield1.02%
Average Volume (3M)1.13M
Price to Earnings (P/E)41.9
Beta (1Y)1.40
Revenue Growth10.78%
EPS Growth-15.63%
CountryUS
Employees7,600
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.29
Shares Outstanding268,889,370
10 Day Avg. Volume1,205,414
30 Day Avg. Volume1,133,031
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.22
Price to Book (P/B)2.20
Price to Sales (P/S)1.23
P/FCF Ratio9.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.80
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.31
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.13
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.03
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.59Price Target Upside6.86% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.4
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.05B
Ermenegildo Zegna Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ermenegildo Zegna N.V., along with its affiliated entities, operates as a leading luxury fashion house. The company is engaged in the design, production, marketing, and global distribution of high-end menswear, footwear, leather goods, and assorte...
Ermenegildo Zegna Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 15, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was predominantly positive, supported by group adjusted EBIT growth, Zegna's strong double-digit DTC momentum and margin expansion, improved free cash flow and net cash, and expected second-half improvement at Thom Browne. The main challenges were foreign exchange headwinds, lower reported net profit, a higher first-half tax rate, continued wholesale contraction, Thom Browne's ongoing transition and Q3 deceleration, and TOM FORD Fashion remaining slightly loss-making for the full year.Positive Updates
Gross Profit Supported by Direct-to-Consumer Mix
First-half 2026 gross profit reached EUR 668 million, with a 67.6% margin on revenues. Direct-to-consumer revenues represented 86% of branded group revenues, up from 82% in the first half of last year, supporting gross margin through a favorable channel mix.
Negative Updates
Foreign Exchange Headwinds
Foreign exchange movements reduced top-line growth by 3 percentage points in the first six months of 2026 and partially offset the favorable gross-margin effect from the DTC channel mix.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Gross Profit Supported by Direct-to-Consumer Mix
First-half 2026 gross profit reached EUR 668 million, with a 67.6% margin on revenues. Direct-to-consumer revenues represented 86% of branded group revenues, up from 82% in the first half of last year, supporting gross margin through a favorable channel mix.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management expects the Zegna segment adjusted EBIT margin “in the region of 15%” for the full year, with the “sweet spot” “between the 15% and 20%” over time; wholesale is expected “not to be a driver of growth, to continue to contract,” with Zegna “in the low double digit,” TOM FORD “between slightly negative and stable, probably stable,” and Thom Browne negative, with its absolute decline “kind of half” last year’s EUR 50 million decline. The 2026 adjusted EBIT consensus moved from around EUR 190 million to EUR 195 million and remains “reasonable, even if of course a bit more challenging”; 2027 guidance remains “EUR 2.2 billion and EUR 250 million,” with EBIT at “the lower range of the guidance.” Thom Browne H2 2026 EBIT is expected “to return positive in the semester,” bringing full-year EBIT “close to breakeven,” while TOM FORD Fashion is expected to post full-year 2026 adjusted EBIT “in the region of a few million negative.” The group’s normal tax rate is “around 28%-30%,” and full-year 2026 profit after tax “will not be too far from last year.”Ermenegildo Zegna Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.98B | 1.84B | 1.95B | 1.90B | 1.49B | 1.29B |
| Gross Profit | 1.11B | 1.02B | 1.30B | 1.22B | 928.01M | 800.79M |
| EBITDA | 415.64M | 391.75M | 406.23M | 392.95M | 337.14M | 71.14M |
| Net Income | 78.56M | 94.69M | 77.08M | 121.53M | 51.48M | -136.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.09B | 2.83B | 2.83B | 2.77B | 2.43B | 2.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 294.44M | 295.68M | 296.13M | 387.03M | 572.99M | 800.17M |
| Total Debt | 1.15B | 977.36M | 1.04B | 996.35M | 914.56M | 1.07B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.98B | 1.73B | 1.85B | 1.87B | 1.69B | 1.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.04B | 1.03B | 916.12M | 840.29M | 678.95M | 601.21M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 301.50M | 242.19M | 153.60M | 197.50M | 73.10M | 186.83M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 394.76M | 322.32M | 279.13M | 275.38M | 146.40M | 281.15M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -119.99M | -105.58M | -126.01M | 21.79M | -57.34M | -82.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -214.21M | -206.57M | -234.53M | -250.49M | -297.00M | -64.11M |
Ermenegildo Zegna Technical Analysis
Positive
13.65
Price Trends
12.80
Positive
13.42
Positive
12.26
Positive
Market Momentum
0.17
Negative
59.42
Neutral
71.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ZGN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.78, above the 50-day MA of 12.80, and above the 200-day MA of 12.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ZGN.
Ermenegildo Zegna Risk Analysis
Ermenegildo Zegna disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ermenegildo Zegna reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Summary of Risk Factors Q4, 2023
Ermenegildo Zegna Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $22.47B | 23.46 | 35.64% | 1.01% | 14.68% | 26.22% | |
72 Outperform | $1.28B | 9.30 | 7.53% | 1.34% | -8.74% | -22.98% | |
68 Neutral | $154.56M | 20.24 | 14.48% | ― | 8.02% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $5.71B | 41.93 | 7.60% | 1.02% | 10.78% | -15.63% | |
54 Neutral | $415.95M | -59.09 | -1.28% | 10.05% | -1.80% | -112.70% | |
53 Neutral | $3.92B | -23.86 | -3.49% | 0.18% | 1.64% | -140.84% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
ZGN
Ermenegildo Zegna
13.48
3.11
29.98%
GIII
G-III Apparel Group
29.85
1.89
6.76%
OXM
Oxford Industries
27.77
-9.34
-25.17%
PVH
PVH
84.98
-0.34
-0.40%
RL
Ralph Lauren
377.40
43.37
12.99%
VNCE
Vince Holding
11.94
8.98
303.38%
Ermenegildo Zegna Corporate Events
Ermenegildo Zegna Group Posts Solid Q3 2026 Revenue Growth on DTC Strength
Oct 22, 2026
In a press release dated October 22, 2026, Ermenegildo Zegna Group reported unaudited revenues of €1.42 billion for the first nine months of 2026, a 7.2% year-on-year increase, with organic growth at 8.9%. Third-quarter revenues rose 8.9% to...
Ermenegildo Zegna to Release Q3 2026 Revenues on October 22
Oct 8, 2026
On October 8, 2026, Milan-based Ermenegildo Zegna Group announced plans to publish its unaudited revenues for the third quarter of 2026 on October 22, 2026, at 6:30 a.m. ET. The figures will be accompanied by a management conference call and live ...
Ermenegildo Zegna Lifts H1 2026 Sales and Margins as Direct-to-Consumer Growth Offsets Profit Dip
Sep 3, 2026
On September 3, 2026, Ermenegildo Zegna reported unaudited results for the first half of 2026, with revenues rising 6.4% year-on-year to €987.3 million, or 9.3% on an organic basis, driven by a 12.1% increase in direct-to-consumer sales that...
Ermenegildo Zegna Files Unaudited Semi-Annual Report for First Half of 2026
Sep 3, 2026
Ermenegildo Zegna N.V., the Italian-headquartered luxury fashion group, reported its unaudited semi-annual condensed consolidated financial statements for the period at June 30, 2026, covering the six months ended June 30, 2026 and 2025. The repor...
Ermenegildo Zegna Group Sets September 3 Date for First-Half 2026 Results
Aug 24, 2026
Ermenegildo Zegna Group announced on August 24, 2026, that it will release its financial results for the first half of 2026 on September 3, 2026, with the figures to be published early that morning in New York and midday in Europe. The company has...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.