Yara International (YARIY) AI Stock Analysis

Yara International

(Other OTC:YARIY)

Select Model

Rating:70Outperform

Price Target:$23.50▲(10.55% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:10/23/26

Attractive valuation and solid financial performance driven by balance sheet improvement and cash flow are the main positives, tempered by weak technical momentum and mixed earnings call results.

Positive Factors

Earnings RecoveryThe rebound in profitability shows that Yara can restore earnings power when fertilizer spreads and operating conditions improve. Stronger margins and returns support internal funding, reinforce the company’s competitive position, and provide a healthier base for performance over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Commodity-Cycle ExposureYara’s earnings remain sensitive to the spread between fertilizer prices and natural-gas costs, so stronger recent results may not be fully durable across the cycle. This commodity exposure can create substantial volatility in margins, returns, and cash generation even with effective internal execution.

Yara International (YARIY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $21.72B
Dividend Yield: 5.52%
Average Volume (3M): 36.38K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.7
Beta (1Y): 0.19
Revenue Growth: 12.29%
EPS Growth: 90.20%
Country: US
Employees: 15,702
Sector: Basic Materials
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Agricultural Inputs

Yara International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Yara International ASA engages in the production, distribution, and sale of fertilizers. It operates through the following segments: Europe, Americas, Africa and Asia, Global Plants and Operational Excellence, Clean Ammonia, and Industrial Solutions....

How the Company Makes Money

Yara primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling nitrogen-based fertilizer products and related crop nutrition offerings. Its core revenue stream comes from fertilizer sales to farmers, distributors, and agricultural retailers, with pricing an...

Yara International Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 21, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:-0.86%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 11, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentNeutral

The call presented a mixed picture. Yara highlighted stronger underlying returns, 31% year-to-date EPS growth, disciplined costs, resilient cash flow, improving European nitrate performance, and progress toward its EBITDA improvement targets. However, third-quarter EBITDA and EPS declined, higher European gas costs pressured margins, demand and purchasing remained delayed in several markets, and reliability issues continued to constrain production and program realization. The positive operational and strategic developments were broadly balanced by current earnings and market challenges.

Positive Updates

Positive Return on Invested Capital

12-month return on invested capital was 13.5%, compared with 8% at the same time last year. Management said the 2025 cost program and USD 60 million of 2026 year-to-date EBITDA improvements contributed approximately 1.5 percentage points to ROIC.

Negative Updates

Quarterly EBITDA and EPS Decline

Third-quarter EBITDA excluding special items was USD 675 million, down from USD 804 million in the third quarter of 2025, a decline of approximately 16%. EPS was USD 0.95 per share, down from USD 1.33, a decline of approximately 29%.

Company Guidance

Yara said its EBITDA improvement program remains on track, with USD 60 million delivered so far in 2026, a target of USD 200 million EBITDA uplift by the end of 2027 and an additional USD 150 million by the end of 2030, or USD 350 million by 2030; the bulk of the outstanding improvements is linked to production or production increases, mainly in the production area toward the end of 2027. The company can curtail up to 1 million tonne of its European ammonia production per year, with curtailments rising from 150,000 tonnes in Q3 to 270,000 tonnes today; at a current run rate of 270,000 tonnes of ammonia, $36 million MBtu per ton of ammonia and fourth quarter gas cost of $24 per MBtu, this gives $230 million in gas cost avoidance just there. Yara does not guide on volumes or provide a quarter-by-quarter forecast for improvements, is hopeful the Gulf Coast Ammonia acquisition will close in Q4, and remains committed to a strong balance sheet and a mid-investment-grade credit rating.

Yara International Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength (score 82) and robust cash flow (score 76) support recovery, with lower leverage and strong free cash flow offsetting modest revenue growth in the income statement (score 68).

Income Statement

68Positive

Balance Sheet

82Very Positive

Cash Flow

76Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	16.90B	15.62B	13.81B	15.43B	23.90B	16.62B
Gross Profit	4.22B	4.42B	3.68B	3.34B	6.55B	4.48B
EBITDA	3.29B	3.12B	1.41B	1.47B	4.83B	2.58B
Net Income	1.41B	1.37B	14.00M	48.00M	2.78B	449.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	17.79B	17.14B	14.99B	16.03B	17.98B	17.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	873.97M	913.00M	317.00M	447.00M	908.00M	350.00M
Total Debt	3.83B	4.18B	4.05B	4.23B	4.22B	4.33B
Total Liabilities	8.47B	8.39B	7.99B	8.46B	9.38B	10.15B
Stockholders Equity	9.29B	8.72B	6.99B	7.55B	8.59B	7.10B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	924.43M	956.00M	248.00M	1.15B	1.47B	597.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.92B	1.89B	1.29B	2.29B	2.39B	1.41B
Investing Cash Flow	-801.67M	-906.00M	-1.08B	-1.20B	-509.00M	-874.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.16B	-392.00M	-401.00M	-1.52B	-1.23B	-1.50B

Yara International Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price21.26

Price Trends

50DMA22.92Negative

100DMA22.91Negative

200DMA24.42Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.37Negative

RSI42.66Neutral

STOCH12.18Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YARIY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.26 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.46, below the 50-day MA of 22.92, and below the 200-day MA of 24.42, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.18 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for YARIY.

Yara International Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

YARIY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CF	80Outperform	$18.66B	9.12	40.41%	1.70%	20.04%	76.29%
UAN	75Outperform	$1.34B	8.36	51.56%	11.42%	17.47%	82.16%
IPI	73Outperform	$424.96M	15.81	5.27%	―	4.20%	―
YARIY	70Outperform	$10.89B	7.74	15.67%	5.52%	12.29%	90.20%
Sector *	61Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ICL	47Neutral	$5.91B	18.76	5.02%	4.50%	10.92%	-16.91%
MOS	43Neutral	$5.85B	91.95	0.36%	4.79%	8.84%	-167.87%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

YARIY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
YARIY	Yara International (ADR)	21.40	3.86	22.01%
CF	Cf Industries Holdings, Inc.	123.30	40.47	48.85%
UAN	CVR Partners LP	126.76	40.33	46.66%
IPI	Intrepid Potash Inc	31.58	5.90	22.98%
MOS	Mosaic Co	18.39	-7.22	-28.19%
ICL	Icl Group Ltd.	4.58	-1.78	-27.96%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 23, 2026

Yara International AI Stock Analysis