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Vistra Energy (VST)
NYSE:VST
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Vistra Energy
(NYSE:VST)
78Outperform
Positive Factors
Market Position
Vistra Energy is one of the largest and most diversified independent power producers, making it particularly well geared to capitalize on market dynamics.
Power Market Revival
Vistra is expected to benefit significantly from the revival of the US power market due to its dominant market position and premium market exposure.
Share Buyback
VST continues to guide to $1 billion annual share buyback at least through 2026, with the possibility of more repurchases if shares continue to weaken.
Negative Factors
Regulatory Uncertainty
Lower probability is assigned to data center deals due to legislative/regulatory uncertainty in Vistra's main energy markets, ERCOT and PJM.
Stock Performance
Vistra's stock has experienced a pullback after its outperformance over the long-term.
Valuation Concerns
The current valuation of Vistra's stock is considered high after a significant increase, with limited room for further rerating in the near term.
Vistra Energy (VST) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$47.38B
Dividend Yield0.63%
Average Volume (3M)7.55M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.9
Beta (1Y)1.96
Revenue Growth24.68%
EPS Growth103.48%
CountryUS
Employees6,850
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength88
IndustryIndependent Power Producers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.10
Shares Outstanding340,157,070
10 Day Avg. Volume5,768,953
30 Day Avg. Volume7,551,975
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.38
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.70
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$158.38Price Target Upside13.13% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
Vistra Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionVistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. The company operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across 20 states in the United States and the District of Columbia. The company is also involved in the electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities. It serves approximately 4.3 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 38,700 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyVistra Energy generates revenue through its retail electricity sales and power generation operations. In the Retail segment, the company earns money by selling electricity and related services to a broad range of customers, including residential, commercial, and industrial users. This segment benefits from brand recognition and competitive pricing strategies. The Generation segment contributes to revenue by producing electricity using its diverse fleet of power plants, which are strategically located to serve key markets across the United States. Vistra's power plants use a mix of energy sources, including natural gas, nuclear, and renewables, allowing the company to optimize production costs and manage market fluctuations. Additionally, Vistra may engage in bilateral contracts and participate in wholesale electricity markets to maximize earnings. The company's strategic initiatives, such as investments in renewable energy projects and energy storage solutions, also play a significant role in its financial performance and long-term growth prospects.
Vistra Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Vistra Energy demonstrates strong financial performance with improvements in revenue and profitability margins. The balance sheet reflects reduced leverage and enhanced financial stability, while cash flows show robust free cash flow growth. Despite some operational inefficiencies affecting EBITDA, the company is on a positive trajectory.Income Statement
Vistra Energy has shown a strong income statement performance with a significant revenue growth of 16.5% from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin improved markedly, indicating better cost management. The net profit margin is robust at 14.3% for 2024. However, the negative EBITDA margin in 2024 suggests some operational inefficiencies or extraordinary items affecting earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a solid equity position with an equity ratio of 14.8% in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio significantly improved to 0.16 from 2023, indicating reduced leverage and enhanced financial stability. However, the return on equity at 44.2% is strong, suggesting efficient use of equity to generate profits. The improvement in equity and reduced debt levels are positive indicators for financial health.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Vistra Energy's cash flow statement indicates a substantial operating cash flow of $4.56 billion in 2024, with a healthy free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.85. The free cash flow growth of 20.8% from 2023 is a positive sign. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio declined compared to previous years, suggesting a need for improved cash generation efficiency relative to net income.70
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 17.22B | 14.78B | 13.73B | 12.08B | 11.44B | Gross Profit |
| 7.53B | 5.52B | 1.68B | 1.35B | 4.65B | EBIT |
| 4.08B | 2.66B | -1.12B | -1.27B | 1.52B | EBITDA |
| 6.96B | 4.57B | 1.29B | 782.00M | 3.16B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 2.66B | 1.49B | -1.21B | -1.26B | 636.00M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 1.19B | 3.48B | 455.00M | 1.32B | 406.00M | Total Assets |
| 37.77B | 32.97B | 32.79B | 29.68B | 25.21B | Total Debt |
| 880.00M | 14.68B | 13.34B | 11.01B | 9.88B | Net Debt |
| -308.00M | 11.20B | 12.88B | 9.68B | 9.48B | Total Liabilities |
| 32.19B | 27.64B | 27.87B | 21.39B | 16.85B | Stockholders Equity |
| 5.58B | 5.31B | 4.90B | 8.29B | 8.37B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 4.56B | 3.78B | -816.00M | -1.24B | 2.08B | Operating Cash Flow |
| 4.56B | 5.45B | 485.00M | -206.00M | 3.34B | Investing Cash Flow |
| -5.28B | -2.15B | -1.24B | -1.15B | -1.57B | Financing Cash Flow |
| -1.60B | -294.00M | -80.00M | 2.27B | -1.80B |
Vistra Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
140.00
Price Trends
122.53
Positive
140.66
Negative
125.04
Positive
Market Momentum
4.04
Negative
64.51
Neutral
93.61
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 140 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 119.94, above the 50-day MA of 122.53, and above the 200-day MA of 125.04, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.61 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VST.
Vistra Energy Risk Analysis
Vistra Energy disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vistra Energy reported the most risks in the “Production” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vistra Energy Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $47.38B | 19.91 | 48.89% | 0.63% | 24.68% | 103.48% | |
75 Outperform | $34.66B | 22.51 | 12.64% | 3.13% | -3.30% | 14.40% | |
73 Outperform | $59.93B | 19.28 | 11.37% | 3.36% | 2.76% | 31.53% | |
70 Outperform | $11.26B | 18.74 | 9.08% | 3.76% | 10.69% | 12.37% | |
69 Neutral | $26.74B | 27.01 | 7.00% | 2.89% | 5.62% | 30.02% | |
63 Neutral | $8.46B | 11.05 | 5.34% | 4.35% | 3.09% | -12.05% | |
62 Neutral | $23.76B | 23.37 | 41.79% | 1.43% | -1.72% | ― |
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
VST
Vistra Energy
140.00
58.94
72.71%
AEP
American Electric Power
107.44
20.90
24.15%
NRG
NRG Energy
116.23
43.87
60.63%
PNW
Pinnacle West Capital
93.91
20.55
28.01%
PPL
PPL
36.28
8.85
32.26%
WEC
WEC Energy Group
108.70
27.87
34.48%
Vistra Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 27, 2025
(Q4-2024)
| % Change Since: -5.36%|
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong financial and operational performance in 2024, with significant achievements in acquisitions, retail growth, and renewable capacity expansion. Despite challenges such as the Moss Landing fire and regulatory uncertainties affecting data center deals and future market designs, Vistra Corp. maintains a positive outlook with reaffirmed guidance and considerable potential for growth.Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Vistra Corp. reported full-year adjusted EBITDA of $5.656 billion, exceeding the top end of their original guidance range, even before considering the $545 million benefit from the nuclear production tax credit recognized in the fourth quarter.
Significant Acquisition and Market Expansion
Completed a unique acquisition adding three new nuclear sites, one million retail customers, and nearly two thousand team members. This includes a twenty-year license renewal for the Comanche Peak nuclear power plant and two large power purchase agreements for a renewable pipeline.
Retail Business Growth
The retail business grew and reached performance levels not achieved in the past two decades, attributed to Vistra Corp.'s 'one team' mindset.
Capacity Additions and Infrastructure Development
Positioned for significant capacity additions with upgrades totaling approximately 500 megawatts in the Texas market and plans to convert the Toledo Creek coal plant to a gas fuel plant by 2027.
Positive Long-term Outlook
Reaffirmed guidance of $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion in adjusted free cash flow before growth and projected significant potential for further growth in adjusted EBITDA beyond the estimated $6 billion in 2026.
Zero-carbon Growth Initiatives
Completed and brought online two solar and energy storage facilities and started construction on projects in Texas and Illinois, adding over 600 megawatts of renewable capacity.
Shareholder Return and Deleveraging
Returned approximately $5.9 billion to investors through share repurchases and dividends since 2021, with plans to return at least $2 billion in 2025 and 2026. Net debt at the end of 2024 was below three times adjusted EBITDA.
Negative Updates
Moss Landing Fire Incident
A fire at the 300-megawatt phase one battery storage facility in Moss Landing, California. Although no injuries occurred, the incident led to the facility being offline and uncertainty regarding insurance recoveries of up to $500 million.
Regulatory and Market Design Uncertainties
Ongoing regulatory uncertainties in PJM and ERCOT related to market reforms and capacity auction parameters, affecting clarity on future financial performance.
Challenges with Data Center Deals
Complexity and regulatory clarity issues are delaying potential deals with data centers, particularly concerning colocation arrangements and long-term contracts.
Company Guidance
During the fourth quarter 2024 earnings call, Vistra Corp. provided robust guidance, highlighting a strong full-year adjusted EBITDA of $5.656 billion, exceeding the top end of their original guidance range. The company reaffirmed its guidance for adjusted free cash flow before growth, projected to be between $3 billion and $3.6 billion for the upcoming year. Additionally, Vistra Corp. maintained its outlook for a 2026 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity of over $6 billion. The discussion also covered significant capacity additions, with plans to augment existing gas assets in Texas, totaling approximately 500 megawatts, and the conversion of the Toledo Creek coal plant to a gas-fueled plant by 2027. The company indicated its intention to return at least $2 billion through share repurchases in 2025 and 2026, emphasizing its disciplined capital allocation strategy. Challenges and opportunities related to market design, load growth, and regulatory clarity in PJM and ERCOT were also addressed, underscoring Vistra Corp.'s strategic positioning in the evolving energy landscape.Vistra Energy Corporate Events
Shareholder Meetings
Vistra Energy Approves Key Amendments at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 5, 2025
On April 30, 2025, Vistra Corp. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where several key amendments to the company’s certificate of incorporation were approved. These amendments included officer exculpation under Delaware law, the repeal of provisions favoring former principal stockholders, and the removal of supermajority voting standards, which were replaced with a simple majority standard. Additionally, the company’s 2025 Employee Stock Purchase Plan was approved, and Deloitte & Touche LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for the year ending December 31, 2025.
Spark’s Take on VST Stock
According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, VST is a Outperform.
Vistra Energy scores highly on financial performance and earnings call sentiment, driven by strong revenue growth and strategic initiatives. Technical analysis presents a mixed view with potential for upward momentum, while valuation suggests fair market pricing. Despite operational inefficiencies and some regulatory challenges, the company’s positive outlook and strategic positioning contribute to a robust overall score.
To see Spark’s full report on VST stock, click here.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.