Vistra Corp AI Stock Analysis
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Vistra Corp (VST) AI Stock Analysis
Vistra Corp
(NYSE:VST)
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance—especially robust recent and TTM cash generation—supported by a very constructive earnings call with higher guidance and long-term free-cash-flow outlook. Offsetting these positives are clear technical weakness (downtrend and negative momentum) and a less-compelling valuation profile (higher P/E and low yield), with leverage remaining a meaningful financial risk.
Vistra Corp Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Operating Revenue by SegmentBreaks revenue into the company’s major businesses (generation, retail energy, etc.), revealing which activities drive top-line growth. Because Vistra mixes wholesale market sales and retail contracts, changes in segment revenue expose sensitivity to power prices, weather and customer demand and help gauge stability of future cash flows.
Texas and East generation revenues show large, quarter-to-quarter spikes—notably in Q1 2026—consistent with management’s report of record generation performance and availability that drove record adjusted EBITDA. Retail revenue has climbed steadily but Q1 retail EBITDA was muted by mild weather, highlighting revenue growth doesn’t guarantee margin expansion. Sunset’s disappearance after 2024 suggests asset retirements/sales that reduce legacy noise, while wide swings in Corporate & Other likely reflect hedging and non‑operational items; the pending Cogentrix deal and heavy hedging point to a larger, more stable revenue base ahead.
The FlyVistra Corp (VST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $44.79B
- Dividend Yield
- 0.68%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 6.09M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 17.8
- Beta (1Y)
- 1.49
- Revenue Growth
- 17.48%
- EPS Growth
- 163.75%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 6,390
- Sector
- Utilities
- Sector Strength
- 66
- Industry
- Independent Power Producers
Vistra Corp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vistra Corp., along with its various holdings, functions as a unified entity primarily engaged in retail electricity supply and power generation. The company organizes its operations across six distinct segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, an...
How the Company Makes Money
Vistra makes money primarily by producing electricity and selling it into competitive wholesale power markets and by selling electricity (and related offerings) directly to end-use customers through retail power plans. 1) Wholesale generation revenue...
Vistra Corp Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive, supported by record third-quarter adjusted EBITDA, higher 2026 guidance, the completed Cogentrix acquisition, robust year-to-date growth, improving credit metrics, expanded share repurchases, and a substantial long-term free cash flow outlook. The company also emphasized strong customer demand and contracting opportunities. Offsetting concerns included lower near-term ERCOT prices, overstated interconnection queues, grid-connection delays, and political and regulatory uncertainty affecting project timing.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Vistra narrowed its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion and its 2026 adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance to $4.3 billion to $4.7 billion, and introduced 2027 guidance of $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA and $4.3 billion to $5.1 billion of adjusted free cash flow before growth. The Cogentrix transaction is expected to deliver high single-digit adjusted free cash flow accretion over the near term, increasing to double-digit accretion beginning in 2029. Vistra still sees load growth of 4% to 6% in ERCOT and 2% to 3% in PJM through 2030, adjusted free cash flow per share growing from just under $10.5 in 2025 to approximately $14 in 2027, and approximately 70% growth in adjusted free cash flow before growth per share from 2027 to 2030, with a 2030 free cash flow per share outlook of $24; its planning assumes $1 billion a year in share repurchases, $300 million a year in dividends, and roughly $3 billion a year of share repurchases.
Vistra Corp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong recovery with solid recent profitability and excellent TTM free-cash-flow generation (cash flow score 83; income statement score 78). The key offset is balance-sheet risk from high leverage (balance sheet score 52) and notable year-to-year volatility (2025 dip before TTM rebound).
Income Statement
78PositiveBalance Sheet
52NeutralCash Flow
83Very Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 20.59B | 17.74B | 17.22B | 14.78B | 13.73B | 12.08B |
| Gross Profit | 8.49B | 5.83B | 7.53B | 5.52B | 1.68B | 1.35B |
| EBITDA | 7.51B | 5.25B | 7.00B | 4.57B | 1.05B | 782.00M |
| Net Income | 2.71B | 944.00M | 2.66B | 1.49B | -1.23B | -1.27B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 45.03B | 41.55B | 37.77B | 32.97B | 32.79B | 29.68B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.74B | 816.00M | 1.19B | 3.48B | 455.00M | 1.32B |
| Total Debt | 21.15B | 20.39B | 17.36B | 14.68B | 13.34B | 11.01B |
| Total Liabilities | 38.57B | 36.44B | 32.19B | 27.64B | 27.87B | 21.39B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.31B | 5.11B | 5.57B | 5.31B | 4.90B | 8.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.93B | 129.00M | 2.48B | 3.78B | -816.00M | -1.24B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.76B | 4.07B | 4.56B | 5.45B | 485.00M | -206.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.26B | -4.40B | -5.28B | -2.15B | -1.24B | -1.15B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 633.00M | -74.00M | -1.60B | -294.00M | -80.00M | 2.27B |
Vistra Corp Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VST, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 133.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 139.23, below the 50-day MA of 143.57, and below the 200-day MA of 151.87, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VST.
Vistra Corp Risk Analysis
Vistra Corp disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vistra Corp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
3 New RisksVistra Corp Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
NEE69Neutral
CEG68Neutral
EXC67Neutral- VST66Neutral
NRG63Neutral
TLN58Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEE | 69Neutral | $180.93B | 15.41 | 20.37% | 2.83% | 13.47% | 76.73% |
| CEG | 68Neutral | $94.87B | 21.96 | 15.51% | 0.61% | 25.07% | 42.90% |
| EXC | 67Neutral | $47.12B | 17.75 | 8.95% | 3.64% | 6.67% | -7.99% |
| VST | 66Neutral | $44.52B | 17.84 | 48.14% | 0.68% | 17.48% | 163.75% |
| Sector * | 66Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% |
| NRG | 63Neutral | $20.40B | 17.14 | 30.16% | 1.95% | 17.69% | -17.99% |
| TLN | 58Neutral | $15.71B | -66.79 | -18.95% | ― | 20.33% | -214.53% |
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VST | Vistra Corp. | 133.45 | -37.12 | -21.76% | |
| EXC | Exelon Corp. | 45.61 | 1.39 | 3.14% | |
| NEE | NextEra Energy Inc. | 85.99 | 4.35 | 5.32% | |
| NRG | NRG Energy Inc | 97.50 | -66.23 | -40.45% | |
| CEG | Constellation Energy Corporation | 274.73 | -59.14 | -17.71% | |
| TLN | Talen Energy Corp | 378.71 | 23.67 | 6.67% |
Vistra Corp Corporate Events
Vistra Completes Cogentrix Acquisition, Expanding U.S. Generation Portfolio
PositiveOn October 30, 2026, Vistra completed its acquisition of Cogentrix Energy after receiving all required regulatory approvals. The transaction added 10 modern natural-gas generation facilities totaling approximately 5,500 megawatts in the PJM, ISO New...
Vistra Corp Completes $1.5 Billion Subordinated Notes Offering
PositiveOn September 24, 2026, Vistra Operations Company LLC, an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Vistra Corp, completed an underwritten public offering of $850 million of 7.000% Series A Junior Subordinated Notes due 2057 and $650 million of 7.250% Serie...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 07, 2026