Vistra Energy (VST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $68.26B
• Dividend Yield: 0.45%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.67M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 32.0
• Beta (1Y): 2.04
• Revenue Growth: 46.90%
• EPS Growth: 388.66%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,850
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Independent Power Producers
• EPS (TTM): 0.81
• Shares Outstanding: 338,820,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,291,952
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,672,985
• PEG Ratio: 0.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.53
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.45
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.26
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.85
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.46
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.94
• 1Y Price Target: $235.93
• Price Target Upside: 18.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $220.00 ▲(10.39% Upside)

Vistra Energy's overall stock score reflects a strong earnings call and solid financial performance, despite high leverage and valuation concerns. The company's strategic initiatives and growth prospects are promising, but technical indicators suggest caution due to potential bearish momentum.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates Vistra's effective market positioning and ability to capitalize on energy demand, supporting long-term business expansion.

Strategic Acquisitions

Acquiring modern facilities enhances Vistra's generation capacity and competitive edge, aligning with its strategic growth initiatives and market demand.

Cash Flow Improvement

Improved cash flow supports Vistra's financial health and ability to invest in growth opportunities, ensuring sustainable operations and shareholder returns.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Significant leverage could strain financial flexibility, posing risks to Vistra's ability to navigate economic downturns and invest in future growth.

Unplanned Outages

Unplanned outages can disrupt energy supply and affect revenue, highlighting operational risks that could impact Vistra's reliability and customer trust.

Regulatory Challenges

Regulatory challenges may hinder Vistra's project timelines and increase compliance costs, affecting its ability to capitalize on market opportunities.

Vistra Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. The company operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across 20 states in the United States and the District of Columbia. The company is also involved in the electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities. It serves approximately 4.3 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 38,700 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Vistra Energy generates revenue primarily through its power generation segment by selling electricity to wholesale markets and directly to retail customers. The company participates in both the regulated and unregulated markets, allowing it to capitalize on fluctuating energy prices. Key revenue streams include electricity sales from its portfolio of power plants, which benefit from a mix of long-term power purchase agreements and spot market sales. Furthermore, Vistra's retail segment contributes significantly to its earnings through the sale of electricity and gas to consumers, often bundled with customer service and energy management solutions. Strategic partnerships with other energy providers and participation in various market initiatives also enhance its revenue potential, while its focus on renewable energy investments aligns with the growing demand for sustainable energy solutions.

Vistra Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vistra Energy demonstrates strong financial performance with robust revenue growth, improved profitability, and solid cash flow health. Despite high leverage, the company shows effective financial management with improving returns on equity and positive cash flow trends.

Income Statement

Vistra Energy shows strong revenue growth from 2020 to TTM with a Revenue Growth Rate of 3.62% from 2024 to TTM. The gross profit margin has been stable, with TTM at 41.31%. Net profit margin has improved significantly from negative figures in 2021 and 2022 to 13.40% in TTM, indicating better profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown positive trends, supporting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a moderate Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 3.67 in TTM, highlighting significant leverage but improving from previous years. The Equity Ratio of 12.62% in TTM suggests a relatively low proportion of equity financing. However, the Return on Equity has improved significantly to 50.27% in TTM, indicating strong returns on equity investment.

Cash Flow

Vistra Energy demonstrates strong cash flow health with positive free cash flow and an improving Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.02 in TTM. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 2.00 suggests solid cash generation from operations relative to net income. Free Cash Flow Growth Rate from 2023 to 2024 is slightly negative but remains positive over the larger period.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	22.32B	19.38B	15.54B	17.84B	13.33B	11.06B
Gross Profit	9.07B	7.69B	5.17B	3.81B	60.00M	2.50B
EBITDA	6.63B	7.19B	4.62B	1.29B	852.00M	3.16B
Net Income	2.39B	2.66B	1.49B	-1.23B	-1.27B	636.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	38.15B	37.77B	32.97B	32.79B	29.68B	25.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	458.00M	1.19B	3.48B	455.00M	1.32B	406.00M
Total Debt	18.05B	17.36B	14.68B	13.34B	11.01B	9.88B
Total Liabilities	33.31B	32.19B	27.64B	27.87B	21.39B	16.85B
Stockholders Equity	4.82B	5.57B	5.31B	4.90B	8.29B	8.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.11B	2.48B	3.78B	-816.00M	-1.24B	2.08B
Operating Cash Flow	4.23B	4.56B	5.45B	485.00M	-206.00M	3.34B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.75B	-5.28B	-2.15B	-1.24B	-1.15B	-1.57B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.64B	-1.60B	-294.00M	-80.00M	2.27B	-1.80B

Vistra Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 199.30
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 199.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 200.60, below the 50-day MA of 199.58, and above the 200-day MA of 168.86, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.73 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VST.

Vistra Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SRE	―	$60.54B	22.47	8.87%	2.74%	0.46%	-11.77%
D	―	$52.11B	21.10	9.29%	4.39%	7.60%	55.99%
NGG	―	$76.28B	19.57	8.31%	3.98%	-6.02%	7.24%
AEP	―	$62.03B	16.99	13.03%	3.20%	5.84%	36.33%
VST	―	$68.26B	31.96	45.85%	0.45%	46.90%	388.66%
Sector *	―	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
NRG	―	$32.95B	72.09	17.66%	1.03%	2.09%	-74.13%

Vistra Energy Corporate Events

Vistra Energy Completes $2 Billion Note Offering

On October 10, 2025, Vistra Operations Company LLC, a subsidiary of Vistra Corp., completed a $2 billion private offering of senior secured notes. The proceeds will be used for refinancing, general corporate purposes, and potentially funding an acquisition, impacting the company’s financial strategy and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (VST) stock is a Buy with a $242.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vistra Energy stock, see the VST Stock Forecast page.

Vistra Energy Amends Commodity Linked Credit Agreement

On October 1, 2025, Vistra Operations Company LLC, a subsidiary of Vistra Corp., amended its Commodity Linked Credit Agreement initially dated February 4, 2022. The amendment extends the Revolving Credit Maturity Date to September 30, 2026, modifies the Borrowing Base calculation, and includes other conforming changes, impacting the company’s financial obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (VST) stock is a Buy with a $236.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vistra Energy stock, see the VST Stock Forecast page.

Vistra Energy Secures 20-Year Carbon-Free Power Deal

On September 29, 2025, Vistra Corp. announced a 20-year power purchase agreement with a large investment-grade company to supply 1,200 MW of carbon-free power from the Comanche Peak Nuclear Power Plant. Power delivery is expected to start in the fourth quarter of 2027, reaching full capacity by 2032. This agreement is anticipated to enhance Vistra’s financial performance, with an expected increase in Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth by approximately 8-10% if full capacity is utilized.

The most recent analyst rating on (VST) stock is a Buy with a $223.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vistra Energy stock, see the VST Stock Forecast page.

Vistra Energy Reports Solid Q2 2025 Results

Vistra Corp., a leading integrated retail electricity and power generation company, operates across the United States, providing essential energy resources with a focus on reliability, affordability, and sustainability. In its second quarter of 2025, Vistra reported a GAAP net income of $327 million and cash flow from operations of $1,171 million. The company also achieved a net income from ongoing operations of $370 million and an ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA of $1,349 million. Despite a decrease in net income compared to the previous year, Vistra reaffirmed its 2025 guidance ranges and announced strategic acquisitions and expansions.

Vistra Energy’s Earnings Call Highlights Robust Growth

Vistra Energy’s recent earnings call conveyed a positive sentiment, underscoring robust adjusted EBITDA performance, strategic growth through acquisitions, and significant progress in energy transition projects. Despite facing operational challenges from unplanned outages and potential regulatory uncertainties, the company maintains a positive outlook, projecting increased future EBITDA expectations and successful strategic initiatives.