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Vista Energy SAB de CV
(NYSE:VIST)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$70.00
▲(7.73% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/01/26
The score is driven mainly by mixed financial quality: strong profitability and growth are tempered by higher leverage and negative TTM free cash flow. Technicals add support via a clear uptrend with positive momentum, and valuation looks attractive on a low P/E. Earnings-call guidance is positive but carries meaningful execution, oil-price, and financing risks tied to sustained high CapEx and M&A.
Positive Factors
High profitability and margins
Sustained high adjusted EBITDA and a 64% margin reflect durable operational efficiency and strong cost control across Vista's operations. High margins provide structural capacity to fund drilling programs, service debt, and invest in infrastructure, supporting multi‑year cash generation if commodity prices remain reasonable.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage and debt build
A multi‑billion dollar increase in debt materially reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest‑rate sensitivity. Higher leverage constrains the firm's ability to absorb price shocks, fund opportunistic investments internally, or pursue shareholder returns without relying on external capital markets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High profitability and margins
Sustained high adjusted EBITDA and a 64% margin reflect durable operational efficiency and strong cost control across Vista's operations. High margins provide structural capacity to fund drilling programs, service debt, and invest in infrastructure, supporting multi‑year cash generation if commodity prices remain reasonable.
Read all positive factors
Vista Energy SAB de CV (VIST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.25B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)766.21K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.0
Beta (1Y)0.19
Revenue Growth66.68%
EPS Growth44.46%
CountryUS
Employees528
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.13
Shares Outstanding95,195,885
10 Day Avg. Volume730,259
30 Day Avg. Volume766,207
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.17
Price to Book (P/B)1.99
Price to Sales (P/S)2.02
P/FCF Ratio-6.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.80
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.87
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.54
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.31
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$95.30Price Target Upside46.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)10.54
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.23B
Vista Energy SAB de CV Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico, Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., an entity established in 2017, concentrates on the exploration and production of oil and natural gas throughout Latin America through its various subsidiaries. A significant porti...
How the Company Makes Money
Vista makes money mainly by producing hydrocarbons from its operated upstream fields (primarily in Vaca Muerta) and selling those volumes into domestic and, when applicable, export markets. Its primary revenue stream is crude oil sales, typically ...
Vista Energy SAB de CV Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial performance: very large YoY production and EBITDA increases, material cost reductions, reserve growth, positive H2 free cash flow, and accretive M&A that expands inventory and scale. Key near-term headwinds include lower realized oil prices that depressed sequential revenue and EBITDA, significant ongoing CapEx requirements, and conditionality/financing around the Equinor acquisition. On balance, the company's progress, guidance reaffirmation, and clear capital allocation framework outweigh the challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Production Growth
Total production of 135,400 BOE/d in Q4 2025, +59% year-over-year and +7% quarter-over-quarter; oil production of 118,300 bbl/d, +61% YoY and +8% QoQ; gas production +45% YoY.
Negative Updates
Lower Realized Oil Prices
Realized oil price in Q4 averaged $58.9/bbl, down 12% YoY and 9% QoQ, which reduced revenue and led to a sequential adjusted EBITDA decline (-6% QoQ) despite production growth.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Production Growth
Total production of 135,400 BOE/d in Q4 2025, +59% year-over-year and +7% quarter-over-quarter; oil production of 118,300 bbl/d, +61% YoY and +8% QoQ; gas production +45% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Vista's 2026 guidance assumes Brent at $65 and targets total production of 140,000 BOE/day supported by 80–90 well tie‑ins and $1.5–$1.6 billion of CapEx (ex‑Equinor), with 20–22 tie‑ins in Q1 (10 put on production in January), production ~132,000 bbl/day in February and expected to exceed 140,000 bbl/day in March; the company sees Q1 flattish/slightly below Q4, a substantial step‑up in Q2, flat Q3 and another step in Q4 (aiming for an adjusted EBITDA run‑rate of ~ $2.0 billion by Q4) and reiterates $1.9 billion of adjusted EBITDA for the year, plus free cash flow of $150–$200 million at $65 Brent (Q1 negative, turning positive from Q2 onward).Vista Energy SAB de CV Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.90B | 2.47B | 1.65B | 1.17B | 1.14B | 652.19M |
| Gross Profit | 1.31B | 1.18B | 1.26B | 591.25M | 630.24M | 266.61M |
| EBITDA | 2.12B | 1.97B | 1.10B | 851.24M | 706.13M | 403.56M |
| Net Income | 743.98M | 719.06M | 477.52M | 396.95M | 269.54M | 50.65M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.72B | 7.11B | 4.23B | 2.60B | 2.04B | 1.68B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 617.50M | 538.41M | 764.31M | 213.25M | 244.96M | 315.31M |
| Total Debt | 3.77B | 3.30B | 1.54B | 686.52M | 578.53M | 638.05M |
| Total Liabilities | 5.12B | 4.60B | 2.61B | 1.35B | 1.19B | 1.12B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.60B | 2.51B | 1.62B | 1.25B | 844.06M | 565.26M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -852.56M | -821.62M | -104.83M | 16.30M | 204.38M | 78.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 657.75M | 638.48M | 959.03M | 712.03M | 689.77M | 401.39M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.48B | -2.37B | -1.05B | -699.31M | -582.71M | -295.46M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.70B | 1.50B | 641.21M | 19.56M | -143.20M | 6.53M |
Vista Energy SAB de CV Technical Analysis
Neutral
64.98
Price Trends
70.34
Negative
67.72
Negative
57.23
Positive
Market Momentum
-2.42
Positive
40.68
Neutral
56.49
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VIST, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 64.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 66.24, below the 50-day MA of 70.34, and above the 200-day MA of 57.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VIST.
Vista Energy SAB de CV Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $6.25B | 8.95 | 30.86% | ― | 66.68% | 44.46% | |
67 Neutral | $4.69B | 3.84 | 27.46% | ― | 38.39% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
63 Neutral | $4.96B | 56.97 | 1.64% | 4.15% | -5.06% | -77.54% | |
61 Neutral | $6.98B | 24.64 | 2.49% | 4.38% | 27.35% | -66.88% | |
60 Neutral | $4.67B | -10.14 | -13.78% | 3.56% | 3.77% | -192.29% |
* Energy Sector Average
VIST
Vista Energy SAB de CV
63.75
14.83
30.31%
CNX
CNX Resources
32.64
-0.69
-2.07%
MUR
Murphy Oil
33.61
8.52
33.96%
SM
SM Energy
28.34
1.15
4.22%
CRC
California Resources Corp
52.63
5.80
12.37%
Vista Energy SAB de CV Corporate Events
Vista Energy Sets July Dates for Second-Quarter 2026 Results and Webcast
Jun 10, 2026
Vista Energy announced in Mexico City on June 10, 2026, that it plans to release its consolidated financial results for the second quarter of 2026 on Thursday, July 16, 2026, after the market close. The company will discuss these quarterly results...
Vista Energy Raises 2026–2028 Outlook After Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro Acquisitions
May 11, 2026
On May 11, 2026, Vista Energy updated its 2026–2028 guidance and its 2030 vision, incorporating the recently acquired Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro blocks into its medium- and long-term plan. The company said these non-operating working in...
Vista Energy Closes US$712 Million Acquisition of Equinor’s Vaca Muerta Assets
May 7, 2026
Vista Energy announced on May 7, 2026, that it has closed the acquisition of Equinor’s interests in two key Vaca Muerta shale blocks in Argentina. The deal, announced previously in February 2026, adds a 25.1% non-operating working interest i...
Vista Energy Files Form 6-K to Present First-Quarter 2026 Earnings Webcast
Apr 30, 2026
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in April 2026, furnishing investors with its First Quarter 2026 earnings webcast presentation dated April 30, 2026. The filing, signed that same day by ...
Vista Energy Posts Strong First-Quarter 2026 Revenue and Profit Growth
Apr 29, 2026
On April 29, 2026, Vista Energy filed a Form 6-K reporting unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, alongside comparative figures for 2025. The filing shows a sharp year-on-year increase i...
Vista Energy Delivers Strong Q1 2026 Growth on La Amarga Chica Expansion Despite Negative Free Cash Flow
Apr 29, 2026
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. reported its financial and operational results for the first quarter of 2026 on April 29, 2026, in Mexico City, highlighting strong production and revenue growth versus a year earlier. The company’s total product...
Vista Energy Shareholders Ratify Capital Reduction and Approve 2025 Financial Reports at April 28 Meeting
Apr 28, 2026
Vista Energy’s shareholders held their annual ordinary general meeting in Mexico City on April 28, 2026, with 64.38% of voting share capital represented, ensuring a valid quorum for corporate decision-making. The meeting reflected active sha...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.