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Vale SA
(NYSE:VALE)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$13.50
▼(-11.94% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/05/26
VALE scores as a mid-range opportunity driven by stable-but-normalized financials (profitability and cash conversion down from peak-cycle despite manageable leverage) and a constructive earnings call emphasizing strong quarterly cash generation, base-metals momentum, and active shareholder returns. Offsetting factors are weaker technical trend signals and a valuation mix where a high dividend yield is tempered by a relatively high P/E for a cyclical business.
Positive Factors
Resilient operating performance
Strong quarterly EBITDA and free cash flow demonstrate that Vale can convert substantial production and sales into operating resources despite external cost pressures. This supports ongoing investment, debt reduction and shareholder distributions over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Higher iron-ore cost base
Higher unit costs reduce the margin cushion available when iron-ore prices weaken and make earnings more sensitive to diesel, freight and currency conditions. The upward guidance revisions indicate that cost inflation is a continuing operating challenge rather than a resolved issue.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Resilient operating performance
Strong quarterly EBITDA and free cash flow demonstrate that Vale can convert substantial production and sales into operating resources despite external cost pressures. This supports ongoing investment, debt reduction and shareholder distributions over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Vale SA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Shows profitability from core operations across different business units, highlighting which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges exist.
Shows profitability from core operations across different business units, highlighting which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges exist.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyVale SA (VALE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$51.91B
Dividend Yield8.38%
Average Volume (3M)32.74M
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.5
Beta (1Y)0.80
Revenue Growth12.55%
EPS Growth-60.45%
CountryUS
Employees65,805
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.48
Shares Outstanding4,255,762,700
10 Day Avg. Volume28,808,935
30 Day Avg. Volume32,735,787
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.39
Price to Book (P/B)1.65
Price to Sales (P/S)1.45
P/FCF Ratio18.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.51
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.90
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.53
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.79
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.08Price Target Upside4.87% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)1.69
Revenue Forecast (FY)$41.07B
Vale SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Operating globally and within Brazil, Vale S.A. is a major producer and seller of essential raw materials, including iron ore, iron ore pellets, nickel, and copper. Its operations are organized into two primary segments. The Iron Solutions segment...
How the Company Makes Money
Vale makes money mainly by producing and selling mineral commodities, with iron ore as its largest revenue driver. The company mines iron ore, processes it into fines and pellets (used by steel producers), and sells these products to customers glo...
Vale SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights robust operational execution, strong cash generation and material progress on growth projects (notably accelerated Bacaba and Serra Sul expansions), alongside meaningful improvements in base metals profitability and active shareholder returns. However, near-term headwinds remain: rising iron ore unit costs driven by currency appreciation and higher oil/freight, planned maintenance at Sossego affecting H2 copper output, and market/ regulatory uncertainties (freight volatility, Caves Decree). On balance, the company presented more substantive positive developments than negatives, with management taking actions (hedging, efficiency programs, buybacks/dividends) to mitigate risks while accelerating high-return growth projects.Positive Updates
Strong Pro Forma EBITDA Growth
Pro forma EBITDA of $4.1 billion in Q2 2026, up 19% year-on-year, demonstrating resilient earnings despite external cost pressures.
Negative Updates
Rising Iron Ore Unit Costs
Q2 iron ore C1 cash cost (ex third-party purchases) was $24.1/t (+9% year-on-year) and all-in cost reached $61.6/t (+18% year-on-year); 2026 guidance updated upward to C1 $22.5–$23.5/t (from $20–$21.5) and all-in $58–$62/t (from $52–$56) largely due to FX appreciation and higher Brent/diesel.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Pro Forma EBITDA Growth
Pro forma EBITDA of $4.1 billion in Q2 2026, up 19% year-on-year, demonstrating resilient earnings despite external cost pressures.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Vale updated and narrowed several guidances: iron ore C1 (ex third‑party) is now guided to $22.5–$23.5/t (vs prior $20–$21.5) and all‑in $58–$62/t (vs $52–$56) based on a $86/bbl Brent assumption (prior $68) and BRL 5.13 FX (vs prior BRL 5.60); Q2 pro‑forma EBITDA was $4.1B (iron ore >$3B, VBM $1.3B), Q2 free cash flow $1.5B, CapEx $1.1B, expanded net debt closed at $16.7B with a target/reference of $15B, and hedges/settlements contributed ~$337M cash (Brent hedging benefit ~ $100M ≈ $1.6/t); Vale Base Metals cut copper all‑in guidance to $0–$500/t (from $1,000–$1,500) and nickel to $10,000–$11,500/t (from $12,000–$13,500); shareholder returns include $1.7B dividends/interest on capital in September and a buyback program of up to 100M shares (≈2.3% outstanding) after $140M repurchased this quarter ($214M YTD); operationally, Serra Sul +20 will add 20 Mt capacity, Bacaba commissioning moved up to Q3‑2027 (50 kt capacity), and Q2 copper/nickel production rose +6%/+4% YoY (sales +10%/+7%), supporting confident guidance for 2026.Vale SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
69
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 41.22B | 38.23B | 38.06B | 41.78B | 43.84B | 54.50B |
| Gross Profit | 14.15B | 13.14B | 13.79B | 17.70B | 19.81B | 32.77B |
| EBITDA | 10.05B | 9.37B | 10.81B | 15.56B | 23.74B | 34.13B |
| Net Income | 2.03B | 2.47B | 6.17B | 7.98B | 18.79B | 22.45B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 89.29B | 86.88B | 80.25B | 93.87B | 86.89B | 89.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.77B | 7.60B | 5.01B | 3.66B | 4.80B | 11.90B |
| Total Debt | 18.94B | 19.39B | 17.74B | 16.80B | 15.44B | 17.20B |
| Total Liabilities | 50.37B | 52.41B | 45.69B | 53.04B | 49.54B | 54.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 37.99B | 33.63B | 33.43B | 39.31B | 35.87B | 34.47B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.86B | 3.06B | 2.88B | 7.36B | 6.04B | 20.65B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.88B | 9.04B | 9.39B | 13.40B | 11.48B | 25.68B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.96B | -7.19B | -5.79B | -6.49B | -4.69B | -6.61B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.22B | 221.78M | -2.13B | -7.41B | -13.91B | -20.28B |
Vale SA Technical Analysis
Negative
15.33
Price Trends
14.16
Negative
14.41
Negative
15.07
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.36
Positive
30.91
Neutral
11.45
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VALE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.43, above the 50-day MA of 14.16, and above the 200-day MA of 15.07, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.45 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VALE.
Vale SA Risk Analysis
Vale SA disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vale SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vale SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $212.24B | 21.00 | 19.41% | 4.26% | 15.12% | 9.37% | |
63 Neutral | $148.71B | 11.69 | 18.86% | 5.35% | 14.26% | 17.02% | |
63 Neutral | $1.60B | 5.79 | 25.68% | 1.07% | 23.37% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $51.91B | 25.49 | 5.76% | 8.38% | 12.55% | -60.45% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $773.60M | -19.43 | -5.64% | 1.41% | -8.54% | 61.49% | |
54 Neutral | $6.95B | -115.56 | -2.66% | ― | 71.92% | 44.39% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
VALE
Vale SA
12.70
2.02
18.92%
BHP
BHP Group
80.82
27.74
52.25%
GSM
Ferroglobe
4.19
-0.77
-15.47%
RIO
Rio Tinto
86.92
19.67
29.25%
NEXA
Nexa Resources SA
12.10
6.64
121.49%
MP
MP Materials
39.50
-28.95
-42.29%
Vale SA Corporate Events
Vale Seeks RMB 10 Billion Panda Bond Program in China
Oct 20, 2026
On October 20, 2026, Vale announced that its wholly owned subsidiary Vale Overseas Limited has applied to China’s National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors to register a Renminbi-denominated debt financing program of u...
Vale Base Metals Finalizes Thompson Mine Complex Ownership Shift, Retains Nickel Offtake
Oct 16, 2026
Vale Base Metals has completed a transaction that installs Exiro Nickel Company as the new owner and operator of the Thompson Mine Complex in Manitoba, with Exiro, Orion Resource Partners and Canada Growth Fund collectively holding 81.1% and Vale ...
Vale to Pay R$207 Million in Interest on 10th Issue Incentive Debentures
Oct 15, 2026
Vale S.A. announced in Rio de Janeiro on October 14, 2026, that it would pay interest remuneration on its 10th issue of simple, non-convertible, unsecured incentive debentures, series 1, 2 and 3, on October 15, 2026. The payment totals R$ 207,311,...
Vale S.A. Reports No Trading in Own Securities for September 2026
Oct 14, 2026
In a regulatory filing for October 2026, Vale S.A. reported that neither the company nor its subsidiaries or affiliates executed any trades in their own securities or derivatives during September 2026. The disclosure confirms unchanged positions i...
Vale to Debut Integrated Performance Report With 3Q26 Results in Late October
Oct 2, 2026
Vale S.A. announced from Rio de Janeiro on October 1, 2026, that it will release its third-quarter 2026 results after market close on October 29, 2026. The company will follow the disclosure with an English-language conference call and webcast, wi...
Vale Clarifies Media Report on Potential Panda Bond Plans
Sep 30, 2026
On September 30, 2026, Vale S.A. issued a clarification regarding a same-day media report suggesting the company was considering a debut Panda bond offering exceeding $500 million. The miner said that assessing financing alternatives is part of it...
Vale to Distribute R$ 512 Million Premium on Participating Debentures for 1H26
Sep 30, 2026
Vale S.A. reported that it will pay on September 30, 2026 a total premium of R$ 512.2 million, equivalent to R$ 1.712064114 per participating debenture, for the period between January 1 and June 30, 2026, with financial settlement scheduled for Oc...
Vale Unveils Circular Mining Policy to Drive Waste Reuse and Resource Efficiency
Sep 30, 2026
On September 21, 2026, Vale published a new Circular Mining Policy that formalizes how the group will manage mining waste and tailings to support a transition toward a circular economy in its operations. The policy defines circular mining as maxim...
Vale to Partially Restart Operations at Fábrica Mine in Minas Gerais
Sep 24, 2026
Vale S.A. said on September 23, 2026 that it will partially resume operations at its Fábrica Mine in Ouro Preto, Minas Gerais, after securing authorization from the Court of Justice of the State of Minas Gerais. The restart stems from a Commi...
Vale to Pay R$512 Million in Semi-Annual Remuneration on Participating Debentures
Sep 22, 2026
On September 22, 2026, Vale announced it will pay semi-annual remuneration on its participating debentures, reflecting its ongoing commitment to debenture holders. The payment supports the company’s positioning as a disciplined issuer in Bra...
Vale Secures 30% Stake and Long-Term Offtake in Carajás Miner Ligga
Sep 22, 2026
On September 22, 2026, Vale S.A. confirmed it had signed an agreement to acquire a 30% minority stake in Ligga S.A. via a capital contribution of about US$190 million, following a news report that prompted inquiries from Brazilian market regulator...
Vale reports no trading in own securities for August 2026
Sep 11, 2026
In a Form 6-K filed for September 2026, Vale S.A. reported that in August 2026 neither the company nor its subsidiaries and affiliates executed any transactions involving its own securities or derivatives. The filing details stable positions in co...
Vale Clarifies No Decision on New Debt Issuance After China Bond Report
Sep 10, 2026
Vale S.A. issued a clarification on September 9, 2026 in response to a press report suggesting the company was preparing a bond issuance in China, stating it has not made any decision regarding the issuance of debt securities. The miner emphasized...
Vale Reaffirms No Decision on Vale Base Metals IPO Amid Regulatory Queries
Sep 8, 2026
Vale S.A., a major Brazilian mining group with a significant base metals division, operates globally in iron ore and strategic metals such as nickel and copper. Its Vale Base Metals unit is viewed as a key asset for Brazil, drawing heightened atte...
Vale Reshapes Independent Audit and Risks Committee With New Three-Member Structure
Aug 28, 2026
Vale announced on August 27, 2026, that its board has approved a new composition for the company’s Audit and Risks Committee, which will remain fully independent and now consist of three members. Heloísa Belotti Bedicks continues as coo...
Vale Secures Broad Municipal Adherence to Fundão Dam Reparation Agreement
Aug 20, 2026
On August 20, 2026, Vale reported that 19 additional eligible municipalities in Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo joined the Definitive Agreement for compensation and reparation related to the collapse of the Fundão dam in Mariana, which o...
Vale Fast-Tracks Salobo Copper Expansion With Lower Capex and Wheaton Funding
Aug 13, 2026
Vale S.A. said on August 12, 2026, that its subsidiary Vale Base Metals is advancing the Coarse Particle Flotation project at the Salobo Copper Complex in Pará to the execution phase, with start-up now expected in the first half of 2028, abou...
Vale Disputes Brazilian Mining Royalty Charges, Affirms Compliance
Aug 6, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Vale S.A. stated that it regularly pays Brazil’s mining royalty known as CFEM and that it complies with all applicable regulations and constitutional limits. The company said recent charges by the Brazilian National Mining...
Vale Strengthens Board Independence With New Governance Appointments
Aug 5, 2026
At a Board of Directors meeting held on July 30, 2026, Vale approved changes to the internal regulations of its Nomination and Governance Committee, refining oversight structures that underpin the company’s governance framework. These adjust...
Vale Tightens Governance With New Fiscal Council Regulations
Aug 5, 2026
Vale S.A. has detailed new internal regulations for its Fiscal Council, the permanent supervisory body responsible for overseeing directors and executive officers and ensuring compliance with Brazilian corporate law and the company’s bylaws....
Vale S.A. Details Governance Compliance and Shareholder Protections in July 2026 Report
Jul 31, 2026
Vale S.A. reported its adherence to the Brazilian Code of Corporate Governance as of July 30, 2026, detailing practices aimed at protecting minority shareholders and strengthening oversight. The company confirms that its capital structure is compo...
Vale Launches New 100 Million-Share Buyback Program to Bolster Capital Discipline
Jul 31, 2026
Vale S.A. said on July 30, 2026 that its board approved a new share buyback program for up to 100 million common shares over 18 months starting August 19, 2026, equal to about 2.3% of outstanding equity. The move follows the near expiration of the...
Vale Posts Higher Revenue but Lower Net Profit as Dam-Related Payments Weigh on H1 2026
Jul 31, 2026
Vale S.A. reported a solid year-on-year increase in net operating revenue and operating income for the quarter and six-month period ended June 30, 2026, although net income declined versus the same periods in 2025. Earnings per share for Vale shar...
Vale Strengthens Board Leadership with New Vice Chairman and Lead Independent Director
Jul 31, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Vale announced that its Board of Directors approved changes to the board’s leadership structure, effective August 1, 2026, for the remainder of the current term. Independent board member Reinaldo Duarte Castanheira Filho wa...
Vale Begins Commissioning Serra Sul +20 to Boost High-Grade Iron Ore Output
Jul 31, 2026
Vale S.A. has begun commissioning the long-distance conveyor belt for its Serra Sul +20 project at the S11D iron ore operation in Canaã dos Carajás, Pará, marking the start-up phase as of July 30, 2026. Together with the Compact Ore...
Vale Raises 2026 Iron Ore Cost Outlook While Cutting Base Metals Costs
Jul 31, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Vale updated its 2026 cost and production estimates, signaling higher iron ore cash and all-in costs while lowering projected all-in costs for copper and nickel. The C1 cash cost of iron ore was revised to US$22.5–23.5 per ...
Vale’s Q2 2026 Profit Slides Despite Higher Revenue
Jul 31, 2026
In its Form 6-K for July 2026, Vale reported that for the three months ended June 30, 2026, net operating revenue rose year-on-year, but quarterly net income fell to 7.0 billion reais from 12.2 billion reais in 2025, reflecting higher operating ex...
Vale posts strong Q2 2026 results, launches Serra Sul expansion and new buyback program
Jul 31, 2026
Vale reported its second-quarter 2026 results on July 30, highlighting year-on-year growth across key businesses, with iron ore posting its strongest Q2 output since 2018 and copper its best in nine years. Net operating revenue rose 19% year-on-ye...
Vale Approves BRL 8.6 Billion Payout and New Share Buyback Program
Jul 31, 2026
Vale’s board of directors met on July 30, 2026, and approved a substantial shareholder payout based on the June 30, 2026 balance sheet, reflecting an advance on 2026 results or the use of profit reserves. The company will distribute a total ...
Vale S.A. Confirms July 2026 Form 6-K Filing With U.S. SEC
Jul 31, 2026
Vale S.A., the Brazilian mining giant, filed its Form 6-K as a foreign private issuer for the month of July 2026 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing confirms the company continues to report under Form 20-F and maintains it...
Vale Formalizes New Nomination and Governance Committee Rules to Bolster Oversight
Jul 31, 2026
Vale’s board of directors in July 2026 approved detailed internal regulations for its Nomination and Governance Committee, formalizing the body’s mission, composition, and operating rules. The committee will be composed entirely of boa...
Vale Approves R$2.03 Per Share Payout for Shareholders in September 2026
Jul 31, 2026
Vale S.A. is a Brazil-based global mining company and one of the world’s largest producers of iron ore and nickel, with its shares listed on B3 in São Paulo and American Depositary Receipts traded on the New York Stock Exchange. The com...
Vale’s 2025 Tax Report Shows $37.5 Billion Global Economic Contribution
Jul 31, 2026
In its 2025 Tax Contribution Report, Vale details a direct global economic contribution of $37.5 billion for the year, underscoring the mining group’s role as a significant driver of growth in the jurisdictions where it operates. Brazil acco...
Vale Board Moves to Dismiss Director Over Confidentiality Breach
Jul 28, 2026
Vale’s board of directors met by videoconference on July 22, 2026, to address a misconduct case involving director Marcelo Gasparino da Silva related to a leak of confidential information from a June 19, 2026 board meeting. Following recomme...
Vale Announces Resignation of Board Vice-Chairman Marcelo Gasparino
Jul 27, 2026
Vale S.A. reported from Rio de Janeiro on July 27, 2026, that board member Marcelo Gasparino da Silva has tendered his resignation from the company’s Board of Directors and his role as Vice-Chairman. His departure will be effective as of Aug...
Vale Discloses Voting Results from July 22 Extraordinary General Meeting
Jul 23, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Vale held an extraordinary general meeting in Rio de Janeiro, where shareholders voted on items 2 and 3 of the meeting’s agenda. The company reported that 3,508,495,389 common shares, representing 82.4% of its voting capita...
Vale Moves to Oust Director Over Confidentiality Breach After July 19 Board Meeting
Jul 23, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Vale’s board resolved to seek the removal of director Marcelo Gasparino da Silva after an independent investigation found he leaked confidential information from a June 19, 2026 board meeting. The board also removed him fro...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.