MP Materials (MP) AI Stock Analysis

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MP Materials

(NYSE:MP)

Rating:57Neutral

Price Target:

$36.00

▼(-3.28%Downside)

The financial performance of MP Materials is the most significant factor contributing to its overall score, as the company faces revenue and profitability challenges. Technical analysis shows strong momentum, but valuation metrics are weak due to negative earnings. The earnings call highlights both strategic advances and operational challenges, suggesting potential long-term growth amid short-term difficulties.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

The magnetics business of MP Materials is already EBITDA positive and is expected to expand its contribution, signaling financial health and potential for growth.

Strategic Importance

MP Materials is the only integrated permanent magnet producer in the US, which enhances its strategic importance amid trade tensions.

Negative Factors

Market Conditions

MP is expected to post negative free cash flow in 2025 and 2026 due to soft NdPr prices caused by an oversupplied market.

Profitability Challenges

MP faces near-term challenges from halting concentrate sales to China, which is currently its main profit driver.

MP Materials (MP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$5.66B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)9.55M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.74

Revenue Growth4.63%

EPS Growth-3189.81%

CountryUS

Employees804

SectorBasic Materials

Sector Strength67

IndustryIndustrial Materials

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.12

Shares Outstanding163,456,300

10 Day Avg. Volume16,225,096

30 Day Avg. Volume9,550,469

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.13

Price to Book (P/B)3.27

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio253.32

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.37

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.72

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit438.03

Enterprise Value/Ebitda98.52

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$29.14

Price Target Upside-21.71% Downside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering8

MP Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMP Materials Corp. owns and operates rare earth mining and processing facilities. It owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth mine located in the Western Hemisphere. The company holds the mineral rights to the Mountain Pass mine and surrounding areas, as well as intellectual property rights related to the processing and development of rare earth minerals. It offers cerium, lanthanum, neodymium, praseodymium, and samarium. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.

How the Company Makes MoneyMP Materials generates revenue through the extraction, processing, and sale of rare earth materials. The primary revenue stream comes from selling rare earth oxide concentrates, which are essential components in the manufacturing of high-performance magnets. These magnets are crucial for various industries, including automotive, renewable energy, and electronics. The company benefits from strategic partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers who require a stable and reliable source of rare earth materials. Furthermore, MP Materials is actively working on vertically integrating its operations to further enhance profitability by controlling more stages of the supply chain, from mining to the production of rare earth magnets.

MP Materials Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

REO Production Volume

REO Production Volume
Measures the total output of rare earth oxides, indicating the company’s production efficiency and capacity to meet market demand.

Chart InsightsMP Materials' REO production volume has shown volatility, with a notable surge in Q3 2024. This aligns with strategic shifts highlighted in their earnings call, where they emphasized increased domestic production and halted exports to China due to geopolitical tensions. Despite challenges like reduced EBITDA, the company is focusing on expanding its U.S. supply chain, evidenced by a significant rise in NdPr sales and new partnerships. This strategic pivot could bolster long-term growth, positioning MP Materials as a key player in the domestic rare earth market.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

MP Materials Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 56.06%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed sentiment. While there were significant achievements in production and strategic positioning, challenges such as halted shipments to China and declines in EBITDA and EPS were noted. However, the company's position as a national leader and its engagement with government and industry partners suggests a positive long-term outlook.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record NdPr Oxide Production

Achieved record NdPr oxide production of 563 metric tons, a 36% sequential increase from the previous quarter.

Revenue Growth

Consolidated revenue increased by 25% year-over-year, driven by a 246% increase in NdPr sales volumes.

Magnetics Division Milestone

Began initial on-spec metal production for General Motors, marking a significant milestone as the first NdPr metal production at scale in the U.S.

Strategic National Positioning

Positioned as America's national champion in rare earth magnetics, with increased engagement from both government and industry.

Magnetic Division Performance

Magnetics Division recorded $5.2 million in revenue and turned EBITDA positive in the quarter.

Negative Updates

Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Decline

Consolidated adjusted EBITDA declined $1.5 million year-over-year to negative $2.7 million, driven by the transition to producing separated products.

Challenges in China

Halted shipments of rare earth concentrate to China due to geopolitical tensions, impacting the supply chain strategy.

Adjusted Diluted EPS Decline

Adjusted diluted EPS fell from negative $0.04 a year ago to negative $0.12 this year, primarily due to higher interest expense and depreciation.

Company Guidance

During the MP Materials First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided guidance on its recent strategic and operational advancements. MP Materials reported a record production of NdPr oxide at 563 metric tons, a 36% sequential increase, and achieved its second highest quarterly production of REO. The company emphasized the geopolitical importance of establishing a domestic rare earth supply chain due to China's recent tariffs and export restrictions. MP Materials halted shipments of rare earth concentrate to China, focusing instead on non-Chinese markets like Japan and Korea. They also recorded $5.2 million in revenue from initial metal production for General Motors, marking a significant milestone for domestic NdPr metal production. The company highlighted a 25% year-over-year increase in consolidated revenue, driven by a 246% rise in NdPr sales volumes, despite an adjusted EBITDA decline of $1.5 million to negative $2.7 million. MP Materials is actively discussing partnerships with major commercial and government stakeholders to accelerate its mission, leveraging its vertically integrated model to enhance the U.S. rare earth magnetic supply chain.

MP Materials Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MP Materials faces financial headwinds with declining revenues and profitability. Despite a stable balance sheet with low leverage, negative cash flow trends highlight liquidity concerns.

Income Statement

Neutral

MP Materials' TTM revenue has declined compared to previous years, with an evident drop in profitability marked by negative EBIT and net income margins. The company is facing challenges in maintaining its revenue growth and profitability, which is evident from the negative EBIT and EBITDA margins.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The company maintains a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating prudent leverage management. However, the return on equity has turned negative due to losses, impacting overall shareholder value. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting asset financing primarily through equity.

Cash Flow

Negative

MP Materials is experiencing negative operating and free cash flows, indicating potential liquidity challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio has weakened, reflecting inefficiencies in converting earnings to cash.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
215.98M	203.85M	253.44M	527.51M	331.95M	134.31M
	Gross Profit
4.83M	-66.79M	105.02M	416.94M	231.32M	31.91M
	EBIT
-169.13M	-169.43M	22.28M	327.41M	165.34M	25.23M
	EBITDA
-34.87M	8.65M	94.95M	366.77M	195.86M	-25.27M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-104.56M	-65.42M	24.31M	289.00M	135.04M	-21.82M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
759.16M	850.87M	997.84M	1.18B	1.18B	519.65M
	Total Assets
2.37B	2.33B	2.34B	2.24B	1.89B	1.07B
	Total Debt
73.74M	914.53M	688.81M	678.44M	691.82M	70.82M
	Net Debt
-124.61M	632.09M	425.46M	541.82M	-487.48M	-448.84M
	Total Liabilities
1.33B	1.28B	970.67M	925.15M	880.93M	220.41M
	Stockholders Equity
1.04B	1.05B	1.37B	1.31B	1.01B	853.88M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-173.77M	-173.07M	-199.20M	16.92M	-21.90M	-19.09M
	Operating Cash Flow
-8.72M	13.35M	62.70M	343.51M	101.97M	3.28M
	Investing Cash Flow
-46.36M	10.06M	68.70M	-1.36B	-119.36M	-22.37M
	Financing Cash Flow
-42.71M	-4.79M	-9.92M	-24.19M	666.11M	521.96M

MP Materials Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price37.22

Price Trends

50DMA

24.27

Positive

100DMA

24.29

Positive

200DMA

21.11

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

3.18

Negative

RSI

78.98

Negative

STOCH

94.22

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 37.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.28, above the 50-day MA of 24.27, and above the 200-day MA of 21.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 78.98 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.22 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MP.

MP Materials Risk Analysis

MP Materials disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MP Materials reported the most risks in the "Production" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks

A recent decision of the Delaware Court of Chancery in Garfield v. Boxed, Inc. may create uncertainty regarding the validity of some of our authorized and issued shares of common stock. Q4, 2022

Increased scrutiny regarding our sustainability and ESG practices could impact our reputation and our stock price. Q4, 2022

MP Materials Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (51)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AA	72 Outperform	$7.44B	8.50	17.53%	1.39%	21.56%	―
CDE	69 Neutral	$5.85B	32.52	6.44%	―	41.79%	―
CMT	69 Neutral	$149.99M	12.33	8.01%	―	-15.07%	-36.06%
MP	57 Neutral	$5.66B	―	-9.62%	―	4.63%	-3189.81%
ALB	56 Neutral	$7.17B	―	-10.58%	2.71%	-39.34%	-500.52%
CE	53 Neutral	$6.15B	6.84	-26.94%	0.21%	-5.98%	-183.27%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$2.01B	-1.26	-21.11%	4.38%	2.92%	-30.46%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

MP Materials

37.22

23.55

172.28%

ALB

Albemarle

59.40

-32.48

-35.35%

Alcoa

28.35

-10.15

-26.36%

Celanese

54.39

-82.04

-60.13%

CDE

Coeur Mining

9.02

3.15

53.66%

CMT

Core Molding Technologies

16.62

0.22

1.34%

MP Materials Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

MP Materials Elects Directors and Approves Executive Compensation

Neutral

Jun 11, 2025

On June 10, 2025, MP Materials Corp. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where three Class II directors were elected to serve until 2028. The stockholders also approved the compensation for the company’s executive officers and ratified KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (MP) stock is a Buy with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MP Materials stock, see the MP Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes

MP Materials Appoints New Chief Accounting Officer

Neutral

Apr 4, 2025

On April 4, 2025, MP Materials Corp. appointed David G. Infuso as the Chief Accounting Officer and principal accounting officer, succeeding Ryan Corbett who remains the Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Infuso, who joined the company in November 2020, has extensive experience in accounting and finance, having previously worked at Penn Entertainment, Inc. and Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. His new role comes with an employment agreement that includes a base salary of $315,000, eligibility for a discretionary bonus, and various benefits in case of termination. The appointment and associated compensation package highlight MP Materials’ commitment to strengthening its financial leadership team.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.