TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.35B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 7.74M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.67
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -9.91%
• Country: US
• Employees: 47
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): -0.20
• Shares Outstanding: 406,392,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,466,683
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,741,769
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): -21.06
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -8.20
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -10.41K
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -18.06
• 1Y Price Target: $9.13
• Price Target Upside: 57.69% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 42 Neutral
• Price Target: ―

TMC faces significant financial challenges, with poor income and cash flow performance indicating instability. Although the technical analysis shows positive momentum, the valuation remains unattractive due to negative earnings. The strategic regulatory shifts present potential future opportunities but are offset by ongoing uncertainty and geopolitical risks, resulting in a low overall score.

Positive Factors

Strategic Regulatory Shift

The shift to a U.S. regulatory framework provides a more predictable path for operations, potentially expediting commercial production and enhancing regulatory certainty.

Environmental and Technical Milestones

Achieving technical and environmental milestones strengthens TMC's operational capabilities and supports its sustainable mining approach, aligning with industry trends.

Deep-Sea Mineral Recovery Permits

Securing these permits could enhance TMC's leadership in the sector, supporting long-term growth by tapping into critical metal reserves essential for the EV market.

Negative Factors

Financial Instability

Ongoing financial challenges, including insolvency risks and reliance on external financing, threaten TMC's long-term viability and operational sustainability.

Regulatory Uncertainty

Despite a strategic shift, unresolved regulatory uncertainties could delay operations and impact TMC's ability to secure necessary approvals for deep-sea mining.

Termination of Kiribati Partnership

Ending the partnership with Kiribati may lead to geopolitical challenges, potentially affecting TMC's strategic positioning and access to key mining areas.

TMC the metals company Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) is a company focused on the exploration and extraction of polymetallic nodules from the ocean floor. These nodules contain high concentrations of critical metals such as nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese, which are essential for the production of batteries, particularly in the growing electric vehicle (EV) market. TMC operates in the sustainable resource extraction sector, aiming to provide a more environmentally friendly alternative to traditional mining methods.

How the Company Makes Money

TMC generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of polymetallic nodules. The company explores international waters for these nodules and uses environmentally conscious methods to collect them from the ocean floor. TMC's revenue model is heavily reliant on the demand for critical metals, driven by the expanding electric vehicle market and the need for sustainable energy solutions. Key revenue streams include the sale of extracted metals to battery manufacturers and other industrial clients. Significant partnerships with maritime and mining companies, as well as research institutions, contribute to TMC's ability to efficiently and responsibly harvest these resources. The company's earnings are also influenced by fluctuations in metal prices and regulatory developments concerning deep-sea mining.

TMC the metals company Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

TMC the metals company Inc. exhibits significant financial instability. The lack of revenue and large operational losses highlight severe income statement challenges. The balance sheet shows insolvency risks due to negative equity, while cash flow analysis reveals a dependency on external financing to sustain operations. These factors indicate a critical need for strategic financial restructuring and revenue generation to improve financial health.

Income Statement

TMC the metals company Inc. has consistently reported zero or negative revenue, with significant net losses over the years. The lack of gross profit and negative EBIT and EBITDA margins reflect operational inefficiencies and an inability to generate revenue. Revenue growth is non-existent, and the company has not been able to improve its income metrics, indicating poor income statement performance.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reveals a negative stockholders' equity, indicating insolvency risk, as liabilities exceed assets. The absence of revenue and high debt-to-equity ratio pose substantial financial risks. However, the company maintains a considerable amount of cash and cash equivalents relative to its total assets, providing some liquidity cushion.

Cash Flow

TMC's cash flow situation is concerning, with consistently negative free and operating cash flows. This indicates an inability to generate cash from its core operations. Although financing activities have provided cash inflows, they are not sustainable long-term solutions. The company's reliance on external financing underscores the challenges in achieving operational cash flow stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	72.03M	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-223.00K	-362.00K	-360.00K	-174.12M	-149.59M	-562.00K
EBITDA	-128.49M	-78.93M	-73.38M	-170.47M	-139.84M	-56.07M
Net Income	-131.51M	-81.94M	-73.78M	-170.96M	-141.30M	-56.66M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	173.69M	63.00M	68.90M	94.78M	133.13M	54.69M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	115.76M	3.48M	6.84M	46.84M	84.87M	10.10M
Total Debt	2.48M	11.78M	14.00M	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	91.83M	80.12M	57.98M	53.27M	40.37M	18.43M
Stockholders Equity	81.86M	-17.12M	10.92M	41.51M	92.75M	36.25M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-39.24M	-43.98M	-60.15M	-67.81M	-56.49M	-27.14M
Operating Cash Flow	-39.54M	-43.47M	-59.57M	-66.64M	-56.09M	-26.53M
Investing Cash Flow	126.00K	-515.00K	-578.00K	-1.17M	-3.84M	-607.00K
Financing Cash Flow	155.07M	40.69M	20.07M	29.72M	134.70M	21.29M

TMC the metals company Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5.79
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.34, below the 50-day MA of 5.88, and above the 200-day MA of 3.48, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TMC.

TMC the metals company Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GSM	50 Neutral	781.96M	-7.51	-12.87%	1.29%	-8.59%	-256.43%
CMP	48 Neutral	751.23M	-6.18	-65.10%	―	7.27%	27.35%
NEXA	48 Neutral	656.90M	-7.24	-10.19%	2.04%	8.66%	66.06%
LZM	44 Neutral	413.92M	-1.11	-51.71%	―	0.00%	0.00%
TMC	42 Neutral	$2.35B	―	-364.03%	―	―	-9.91%
IPX	35 Underperform	1.43B	-38.26	0.00%	―	0.00%	-15.85%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

TMC the metals company Inc. Corporate Events

TMC Applies for Deep-Sea Mineral Recovery Permits

On April 29, 2025, The Metals Company USA, a subsidiary of The Metals Company Inc., submitted applications to the NOAA for a commercial recovery permit and two exploration licenses under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act. This marks the first submission for commercial recovery of polymetallic nodules from the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, following a recent Executive Order aimed at enhancing U.S. mineral independence. The applications cover significant areas believed to contain large quantities of critical metals such as nickel, copper, cobalt, and manganese, which are essential for energy, infrastructure, and defense. This strategic move is expected to bolster the company’s leadership in the deep-sea minerals sector and could mobilize substantial private sector investment in related U.S. industries.

Spark’s Take on TMC Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TMC is a Underperform.

TMC’s overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, with poor income and cash flow performance indicating instability. Technical analysis shows positive momentum, but valuation remains unattractive due to negative earnings. Strategic regulatory shifts present potential future opportunities but are offset by ongoing uncertainty and geopolitical risks.

To see Spark’s full report on TMC stock, click here.

TMC Initiates U.S. Exploration License Process

On March 27, 2025, TMC the metals company Inc. announced it has initiated a process with NOAA and the U.S. Department of Commerce to apply for exploration licenses and commercial recovery permits under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act of 1980. This move is part of TMC’s strategy to secure a stable regulatory path for deep-sea mineral recovery, following extensive legal diligence and engagement with U.S. officials. The company believes the U.S. seabed mining code offers a predictable framework for commercial recovery, and it plans to submit applications in the second quarter of 2025, highlighting the strategic opportunity deep-sea minerals represent for the U.S. supply chain.