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Sibanye Stillwater
(NYSE:SBSW)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
▼(-21.42% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/15/26
The score is held back primarily by weak and volatile financial performance (recent losses, higher leverage, and uneven free-cash-flow conversion) despite a 2025 operating rebound. Positives include an encouraging earnings-call backdrop (strong cash generation and debt reduction) and relatively attractive valuation, while technical indicators point to a neutral-to-improving trend rather than a clear breakout.
Positive Factors
Strong operating rebound
The sharp increase in revenue and EBITDA demonstrates substantial operating leverage across the portfolio and stronger earnings capacity. If production remains stable, this rebound can support reinvestment, debt reduction and shareholder returns over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Commodity-price dependence
Sibanye remains structurally exposed to externally determined PGM and gold prices, which can move independently of mine execution. Price weakness would pressure revenue, margins and cash flow, potentially slowing debt reduction and limiting investment across the portfolio.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong operating rebound
The sharp increase in revenue and EBITDA demonstrates substantial operating leverage across the portfolio and stronger earnings capacity. If production remains stable, this rebound can support reinvestment, debt reduction and shareholder returns over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.03B
Dividend Yield8.23%
Average Volume (3M)5.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.0
Beta (1Y)1.22
Revenue Growth59.20%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees72,423
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOther Precious Metals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)23.80
Shares Outstanding707,641,850
10 Day Avg. Volume4,543,415
30 Day Avg. Volume5,003,966
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.11
Price to Book (P/B)4.23
Price to Sales (P/S)1.29
P/FCF Ratio99.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.15
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.05
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.17
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.19
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.25Price Target Upside17.87% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)2.3
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.01B
Sibanye Stillwater Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sibanye Stillwater Limited, along with its various subsidiaries, functions as a prominent precious metals mining entity with operations spanning South Africa, the United States, Zimbabwe, Canada, and Argentina. The company's primary outputs encomp...
How the Company Makes Money
Sibanye Stillwater makes money primarily by producing and selling mined precious metals, with revenue largely driven by sales volumes and prevailing commodity prices.
1) Core revenue stream: sale of PGMs
- The company’s largest earnings driver is...
Sibanye Stillwater Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 01, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 03, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive overall, supported by record revenue, sharply higher EBITDA and cash generation, an 18% six-month reduction in gross debt, a high-yield dividend, solid South African operating results and progress on organic growth projects. The main negatives were the loss of colleagues, geopolitical and commodity-market risks, lower production and higher costs in selected operations, ongoing U.S. labor negotiations, and uncertainty around the Section 45X cash receipt and Keliber refinery timing.Positive Updates
Record Group Revenue and Strong Earnings Growth
Six-month revenue reached just under ZAR 90 billion, up 64% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA was ZAR 31.8 billion, up 111% year-on-year, with a 35% margin, while profit increased 581%.
Negative Updates
Fatalities and Work-Related Crime
The company reported that three colleagues were lost in mine safety incidents during the second quarter, including incidents in the PGM and gold operations. It also reported three colleagues lost to crime directly related to work. Management emphasized that fatal incidents and crime-related loss of life remain preventable challenges.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Group Revenue and Strong Earnings Growth
Six-month revenue reached just under ZAR 90 billion, up 64% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA was ZAR 31.8 billion, up 111% year-on-year, with a 35% margin, while profit increased 581%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For the year, guidance remains largely unchanged, with the gold operating unit cost guidance increased to within the range of 1.75 to 1.84, and roughly ZAR 100 million for each of Burnstone and Mount Lyell included in the second half; Burnstone is expected to produce about 130,000 ounces a year at steady state over a 25-year life, while Mount Lyell has a 23-year life and is expected to produce around 26,000 kilotonnes of copper, around 16,000 ounces of gold and another about 116,000 ounces of silver at steady-state production. The company targets reducing gross debt by 50% over a 2- to 3-year period, Stillwater East is expected to move towards the $1,000 an ounce by 2028, renewable energy capacity is expected to rise to over 835 megawatts by 2028 with more than ZAR 1 billion of energy-cost savings, and South African PGM operations have a clear plan to reach 90% water independent by 2028.Sibanye Stillwater Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 164.39B | 129.68B | 112.13B | 113.68B | 138.29B | 172.19B |
| Gross Profit | 48.22B | 41.24B | 6.30B | 12.78B | 34.83B | 60.17B |
| EBITDA | 41.63B | 19.39B | 164.00M | -27.52B | 37.13B | 57.61B |
| Net Income | 16.84B | -5.17B | -7.30B | -37.77B | 18.40B | 33.05B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 158.16B | 149.59B | 137.99B | 142.94B | 166.63B | 152.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 22.26B | 17.16B | 16.05B | 25.56B | 26.08B | 30.29B |
| Total Debt | 37.04B | 43.90B | 42.06B | 41.01B | 23.05B | 20.58B |
| Total Liabilities | 99.46B | 105.47B | 89.70B | 91.33B | 75.63B | 71.65B |
| Stockholders Equity | 53.27B | 39.49B | 43.98B | 48.73B | 91.00B | 79.39B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 14.39B | 1.69B | -11.28B | -15.32B | -356.00M | 19.52B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 33.74B | 20.49B | 10.29B | 7.09B | 15.54B | 32.26B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -21.39B | -20.52B | -24.34B | -22.04B | -17.37B | -14.57B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -9.40B | 2.31B | 4.56B | 12.98B | -3.50B | -8.34B |
Sibanye Stillwater Technical Analysis
Negative
12.09
Price Trends
10.89
Negative
9.93
Negative
11.80
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.32
Positive
36.21
Neutral
33.37
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SBSW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.09 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.93, above the 50-day MA of 10.89, and above the 200-day MA of 11.80, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SBSW.
Sibanye Stillwater Risk Analysis
Sibanye Stillwater disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sibanye Stillwater reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Sibanye Stillwater Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $7.59B | 6.87 | 27.66% | 3.73% | 67.75% | 122.36% | |
76 Outperform | $10.17B | 30.28 | 12.98% | 0.12% | 51.13% | 399.24% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | $2.34B | -9.86 | -31.72% | ― | ― | -506.49% | |
57 Neutral | $968.85M | 11.29 | 13.47% | 0.61% | 47.73% | ― | |
56 Neutral | $7.03B | 7.04 | 34.68% | 8.23% | 59.20% | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
SBSW
Sibanye Stillwater
9.32
-1.23
-11.66%
BVN
Compania de Minas Buenaventura SAA
28.49
6.33
28.59%
HL
Hecla Mining Company
14.11
1.19
9.23%
MUX
McEwen Mining
14.90
-5.35
-26.42%
PPTA
Perpetua Resources
17.26
-6.16
-26.30%
SSMR
Sunshine Silver Mining & Refining Co.
13.17
-3.98
-23.21%
Sibanye Stillwater Corporate Events
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K Market Update with U.S. SEC
Oct 14, 2026
On 14 October 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, confirming its status as a foreign private issuer reporting under Form 20-F. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Keyt...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K with U.S. SEC on 7 October 2026
Oct 7, 2026
On 7 October 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited submitted a Form 6-K to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, confirming its status as a foreign private issuer that reports under Form 20-F. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl ...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K Market Release with U.S. SEC
Sep 30, 2026
Sibanye Stillwater Limited, a South African-based producer of platinum group metals and gold, serves global markets in automotive, jewelry, and industrial sectors. The company is listed as a foreign private issuer in the United States, underscorin...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K to Furnish Market Release to U.S. Investors
Sep 29, 2026
On 29 September 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, confirming its status as a foreign private issuer reporting under Form 20-F. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Ke...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K Market Release with U.S. SEC
Sep 28, 2026
Sibanye Stillwater Limited, a South African precious metals producer, operates as a foreign private issuer with securities registered in the United States and files its periodic reports under Form 20-F. The company maintains its principal executiv...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Routine Form 6-K with U.S. SEC on 18 September 2026
Sep 18, 2026
On 18 September 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign private issuer, confirming its ongoing compliance with U.S. reporting requirements under the Securities Exchange Act of...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K Market Release with U.S. SEC
Sep 15, 2026
On 15 September 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign private issuer. The report, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Keyter, confirms the company’s ongoing compli...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Routine Form 6-K with U.S. SEC on 8 September 2026
Sep 8, 2026
Sibanye Stillwater Limited, the South African precious metals producer, has filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission dated 8 September 2026 as part of its ongoing obligations as a foreign private issuer. The filing confirm...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Routine Form 6-K with U.S. SEC
Sep 8, 2026
Sibanye Stillwater Limited, the South African precious metals miner, filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission dated 7 September 2026, reaffirming its status as a foreign private issuer reporting under Form 20-F. The filing...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K With U.S. SEC on 2 September 2026
Sep 2, 2026
On 2 September 2026, Sibanye Stillwater filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, confirming its status as a foreign private issuer reporting under Form 20-F. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Keyter, rei...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K with U.S. SEC on 1 September 2026
Sep 1, 2026
On 1 September 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K report with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, confirming its status as a foreign private issuer under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The filing, signed by Chief Fina...
Sibanye Stillwater Posts Record H1 2026 Earnings and Cash Flow, Cuts Debt and Lifts Payouts
Sep 1, 2026
Sibanye Stillwater Limited is a South African-based precious metals group with operations spanning platinum group metals (PGMs), gold and emerging battery metals, and its shares trade on the JSE and NYSE. The company focuses on a diversified portf...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K with U.S. SEC on 27 August 2026
Aug 27, 2026
On 27 August 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign private issuer, confirming its ongoing compliance with U.S. reporting requirements under the Securities Exchange Act of 19...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.