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Sibanye Stillwater
(NYSE:SBSW)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$12.00
▼(-0.74% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/07/26
The score is primarily held back by weak and volatile financial performance (continued net losses, higher leverage than prior-cycle, inconsistent free cash flow) and bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Earnings-call signals are directionally constructive (improving leverage, restored dividend, disciplined 2026 spending) but are offset by impairments, one-off cash impacts, and operational/safety risks; valuation is only modestly supported by the dividend given negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Operational earnings recovery
The sharp EBITDA recovery shows that stronger commodity realizations and improved operations can materially restore earnings power. If production discipline and cost initiatives persist, the rebound provides a stronger base for funding debt reduction and ongoing investment.
Negative Factors
Profitability remains unstable
The return to operating improvement has not yet translated into consistent bottom-line profitability. Continued net losses indicate exposure to volatile metal prices, operating costs and non-operating charges, limiting the reliability of internally funded growth and distributions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operational earnings recovery
The sharp EBITDA recovery shows that stronger commodity realizations and improved operations can materially restore earnings power. If production discipline and cost initiatives persist, the rebound provides a stronger base for funding debt reduction and ongoing investment.
Read all positive factors
Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.28B
Dividend Yield2.43%
Average Volume (3M)5.25M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.1
Beta (1Y)1.34
Revenue Growth59.20%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees72,423
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOther Precious Metals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)23.80
Shares Outstanding707,641,850
10 Day Avg. Volume5,863,476
30 Day Avg. Volume5,252,513
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.11
Price to Book (P/B)4.23
Price to Sales (P/S)1.29
P/FCF Ratio99.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.00Price Target Upside15.80% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)2.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.10B
Sibanye Stillwater Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sibanye Stillwater Limited, along with its various subsidiaries, functions as a prominent precious metals mining entity with operations spanning South Africa, the United States, Zimbabwe, Canada, and Argentina. The company's primary outputs encomp...
How the Company Makes Money
Sibanye Stillwater makes money primarily by producing and selling mined metals and related concentrates, with revenue largely tied to realized commodity prices and production volumes.
Key revenue streams:
1) PGM sales (major driver): The company ...
Sibanye Stillwater Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 20, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 03, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a largely positive operational and financial turnaround: strong commodity price tailwinds, record/near‑record EBITDA, a substantial reduction in leverage, restored dividend, and clear progress on sustainability and mechanization programs. These positives are tempered by significant one-off cash impacts (Appian settlement, hedge losses), material impairments (ZAR 15.8bn) and safety‑driven production cuts (notably at Kloof) including six fatalities. Viewed holistically the improvements in core cash generation, balance sheet strength and a disciplined capital allocation framework suggest the company has strengthened its position while addressing legacy and project risks.Positive Updates
Record EBITDA and Strong Earnings Recovery
Adjusted EBITDA rose to just under ZAR 38 billion (up ~189% from ZAR 13 billion), the highest in three years; headline earnings per share increased 281% to ZAR 244 cents, driven by stronger commodity prices and operational performance.
Negative Updates
Large Impairments and Non‑cash Charges
Total impairments at Kloof, US PGM operations and Keliber amounted to ZAR 15.8 billion due to life-of-mine reductions and changes in long-term price assumptions; these materially impacted reported earnings.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record EBITDA and Strong Earnings Recovery
Adjusted EBITDA rose to just under ZAR 38 billion (up ~189% from ZAR 13 billion), the highest in three years; headline earnings per share increased 281% to ZAR 244 cents, driven by stronger commodity prices and operational performance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's 2026 guidance foresees SA PGM production marginally down (life‑of‑mine profile) and SA gold guidance slightly lower (Kloof impact), a small increase in U.S. underground PGM output as the business targets ~$1,000/oz unit costs, recycling production of 400,000–420,000oz gold‑equivalent, and Keliber ramping to at least 15,000–20,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate with 2026 Keliber spend guided at EUR180–190m (≈EUR90m remaining project capital); group growth capital (ex‑DRD) is ZAR3.7bn (vs ZAR9.4bn in 2025), a 50% gross‑debt reduction over 2–3 years is a priority, net debt/adjusted EBITDA was 0.59x at end‑2025 (gross debt ZAR39bn, cash ZAR17bn, net ZAR22bn), liquidity headroom ≈ZAR40bn (~5.5 months OpEx+CapEx), the Board declared a ZAR131cps dividend (~2% yield), and management plans to refinance the $675m 2026 bond in H1 2026.Sibanye Stillwater Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 164.39B | 129.68B | 112.13B | 113.68B | 138.29B | 172.19B |
| Gross Profit | 48.22B | 41.24B | 6.30B | 12.78B | 34.83B | 60.17B |
| EBITDA | 41.63B | 19.39B | 164.00M | -27.52B | 37.13B | 57.61B |
| Net Income | 16.84B | -5.17B | -7.30B | -37.77B | 18.40B | 33.05B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 158.16B | 149.59B | 137.99B | 142.94B | 166.63B | 152.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 22.26B | 17.16B | 16.05B | 25.56B | 26.08B | 30.29B |
| Total Debt | 37.04B | 43.90B | 42.06B | 41.01B | 23.05B | 20.58B |
| Total Liabilities | 99.46B | 105.47B | 89.70B | 91.33B | 75.63B | 71.65B |
| Stockholders Equity | 53.27B | 39.49B | 43.98B | 48.73B | 91.00B | 79.39B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 14.39B | 1.69B | -11.28B | -15.32B | -356.00M | 19.52B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 33.74B | 20.49B | 10.29B | 7.09B | 15.54B | 32.26B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -21.39B | -20.52B | -24.34B | -22.04B | -17.37B | -14.57B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -9.40B | 2.31B | 4.56B | 12.98B | -3.50B | -8.34B |
Sibanye Stillwater Technical Analysis
Positive
12.09
Price Trends
9.93
Positive
10.78
Positive
12.55
Positive
Market Momentum
0.76
Negative
66.15
Neutral
86.85
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SBSW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.09 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.71, above the 50-day MA of 9.93, and below the 200-day MA of 12.55, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.76 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.85 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SBSW.
Sibanye Stillwater Risk Analysis
Sibanye Stillwater disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sibanye Stillwater reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Sibanye Stillwater Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $12.95B | 6.90 | 46.23% | 2.46% | 49.72% | 120.32% | |
81 Outperform | $42.73B | 9.52 | 51.87% | 5.40% | 71.19% | 133.85% | |
80 Outperform | $14.25B | 41.36 | 12.98% | 0.09% | 51.13% | 399.24% | |
78 Outperform | $2.53B | 9.41 | 36.20% | 2.51% | 52.87% | 104.06% | |
78 Outperform | $56.39B | 14.52 | 45.77% | 5.77% | ― | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
45 Neutral | $9.28B | 9.08 | 34.68% | 3.72% | 59.20% | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
SBSW
Sibanye Stillwater
12.79
4.39
52.33%
DRD
Drdgold
28.58
7.69
36.83%
GFI
Gold Fields
47.40
14.10
42.35%
HMY
Harmony Gold Mining
20.27
6.43
46.44%
HL
Hecla Mining Company
20.68
11.67
129.47%
AU
Anglogold Ashanti PLC
109.07
51.95
90.95%
Sibanye Stillwater Corporate Events
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K with U.S. SEC on 27 August 2026
Aug 27, 2026
On 27 August 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign private issuer, confirming its ongoing compliance with U.S. reporting requirements under the Securities Exchange Act of 19...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K and Market Release with U.S. SEC
Jul 22, 2026
Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission dated 22 July 2026, confirming its status as a foreign private issuer that reports under Form 20-F. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Ke...
Sibanye Stillwater Files July 2026 Form 6-K with U.S. Regulators
Jul 1, 2026
Sibanye Stillwater Limited, a foreign private issuer in the mining sector, filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission dated 1 July 2026, confirming its status as a Form 20-F filer and providing its South African principal ex...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K and Market Release with U.S. SEC
Jul 1, 2026
On July 1, 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as part of its obligations as a foreign private issuer under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The filing, signed by Chief Financial O...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K Market Release with U.S. SEC
Jun 30, 2026
On 30 June 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, confirming its status as a foreign private issuer reporting under Form 20-F. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Keyter,...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K Notice of Market Release with U.S. SEC
Jun 23, 2026
On 23 June 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign private issuer, confirming its ongoing compliance with U.S. reporting requirements under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K Market Release with U.S. SEC on 10 June 2026
Jun 10, 2026
On 10 June 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign private issuer. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Keyter, primarily served as a formal submission of a mar...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Routine Form 6-K with U.S. SEC on 3 June 2026
Jun 3, 2026
Sibanye Stillwater Limited has filed a Form 6-K report with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission dated 3 June 2026, reaffirming its status as a foreign private issuer that files annual reports under Form 20-F. The filing, signed by Chief Fi...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K to Maintain U.S. Market Disclosure Compliance
Jun 2, 2026
On 2 June 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, confirming its status as a foreign private issuer reporting under Form 20-F. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Keyter, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.