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BHP Group
(NYSE:BHP)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$90.00
▼(-8.81% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/20/26
The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial quality (high margins and solid free cash flow) but tempered by cyclical volatility and some leverage/return normalization. Technicals are supportive with price above key moving averages and positive momentum, while valuation is the main drag due to a relatively high P/E for a cyclical commodity-exposed business.
Positive Factors
High Margins and Cash Generation
BHP combines strong profitability with consistently positive operating and free cash flow, giving it internal funding capacity for sustaining investment, growth projects and shareholder returns. This financial strength can support resilience across commodity cycles and preserve strategic flexibility.
Negative Factors
Commodity Cyclicality
BHP's earnings remain materially exposed to benchmark commodity prices, so strong profitability can normalize when market conditions weaken. The post-2022 decline in net income demonstrates that cyclical pricing and demand can reduce returns even when the underlying asset base remains substantial.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Margins and Cash Generation
BHP combines strong profitability with consistently positive operating and free cash flow, giving it internal funding capacity for sustaining investment, growth projects and shareholder returns. This financial strength can support resilience across commodity cycles and preserve strategic flexibility.
Read all positive factors
BHP Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Copper Production (kt)
Reflects the output of copper in kilotonnes, a key indicator of BHP's contribution to the electronics and renewable energy industries, and its exposure to market demand for these essential materials.
Reflects the output of copper in kilotonnes, a key indicator of BHP's contribution to the electronics and renewable energy industries, and its exposure to market demand for these essential materials.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBHP Group (BHP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$212.24B
Dividend Yield4.26%
Average Volume (3M)2.66M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.0
Beta (1Y)1.06
Revenue Growth15.12%
EPS Growth9.37%
CountryUS
Employees39,536
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.90
Shares Outstanding2,542,091,300
10 Day Avg. Volume2,491,567
30 Day Avg. Volume2,663,706
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.39
Price to Book (P/B)4.28
Price to Sales (P/S)3.60
P/FCF Ratio17.73
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.83
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.80
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.72
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$83.50Price Target Upside-15.39% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)4.95
Revenue Forecast (FY)$58.10B
BHP Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BHP Group Limited is a prominent global natural resources enterprise with operations spanning multiple continents, including Australia, Europe, Asia (encompassing China, Japan, India, South Korea, and other regions), North America, and South Ameri...
How the Company Makes Money
BHP primarily makes money by producing and selling bulk and base commodities, with revenue largely determined by sales volumes and prevailing global commodity prices (typically benchmark-linked), net of freight, treatment/refining charges (where a...
BHP Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 18, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 15, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
BHP delivered strong operational and financial performance with record production in key segments, robust safety achievements, and significant shareholder returns. However, challenges include a decline in EBITDA due to commodity prices, cost overruns, and delays in decarbonization technology development.Positive Updates
Record Iron Ore and Copper Production
BHP achieved record production in iron ore and copper, with copper volumes growing by 28% over the past 3 years and producing more than 2 million tonnes.
Negative Updates
EBITDA Decline Due to Commodity Prices
A 10% decline in EBITDA was attributed wholly to unfavorable commodity prices despite favorable foreign exchange rates.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Iron Ore and Copper Production
BHP achieved record production in iron ore and copper, with copper volumes growing by 28% over the past 3 years and producing more than 2 million tonnes.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
In the call discussing BHP's financial performance for fiscal year 2025, several key metrics and strategic decisions were highlighted. BHP achieved record iron ore and copper production, with copper volumes growing by 28% over the past three years to surpass 2 million tonnes. The company reported an underlying EBITDA margin of 53% and a return on capital employed of 21%. A final dividend of USD 0.60 per share was announced, contributing to a full-year dividend of $5.6 billion, representing a payout ratio of 60%. BHP also communicated a reduction in capital spend by $1 billion per year over the medium term and revised its target net debt range to $10 billion to $20 billion. Operational excellence was emphasized, with unit costs at major assets improving by nearly 5% year-on-year despite inflationary pressures. Notably, Western Australia iron ore achieved a record EBITDA margin of 63% with C1 costs of $17.29 per tonne, remaining the lowest-cost major iron ore producer globally for six years. The company also highlighted safety improvements, achieving a 63% reduction in high potential injury frequency over five years. Looking forward, BHP outlined plans for average production growth of 2.2% per annum over the next decade, with significant contributions expected from copper and potash projects.BHP Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
77
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 58.76B | 51.26B | 55.66B | 53.82B | 65.10B |
| Gross Profit | 44.41B | 42.14B | 45.73B | 42.87B | 55.76B |
| EBITDA | 30.72B | 24.16B | 27.56B | 26.12B | 38.24B |
| Net Income | 9.83B | 9.02B | 7.90B | 12.92B | 30.90B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 121.39B | 108.79B | 102.36B | 101.30B | 95.17B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 18.60B | 12.17B | 12.65B | 12.46B | 17.54B |
| Total Debt | 26.23B | 24.50B | 20.18B | 22.34B | 16.43B |
| Total Liabilities | 65.07B | 56.57B | 53.24B | 52.77B | 46.40B |
| Stockholders Equity | 49.42B | 47.66B | 44.81B | 44.50B | 44.96B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 11.93B | 9.28B | 11.85B | 11.62B | 26.06B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 21.78B | 18.66B | 20.66B | 18.70B | 32.17B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -12.01B | -13.33B | -8.76B | -13.06B | -6.96B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.28B | -5.96B | -11.67B | -10.31B | -22.77B |
BHP Group Technical Analysis
Negative
98.69
Price Trends
87.28
Negative
85.27
Negative
79.28
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.69
Positive
25.69
Positive
12.00
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BHP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 98.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 84.26, above the 50-day MA of 87.28, and above the 200-day MA of 79.28, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.69 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.00 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BHP.
BHP Group Risk Analysis
BHP Group disclosed 8 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BHP Group reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
BHP Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $212.24B | 21.00 | 19.41% | 4.26% | 15.12% | 9.37% | |
63 Neutral | $148.71B | 11.69 | 18.86% | 5.35% | 14.26% | 17.02% | |
63 Neutral | $1.60B | 5.79 | 25.68% | 1.07% | 23.37% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $51.91B | 25.49 | 5.76% | 8.38% | 12.55% | -60.45% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $773.60M | -19.43 | -5.64% | 1.41% | -8.54% | 61.49% | |
54 Neutral | $6.95B | -115.56 | -2.66% | ― | 71.92% | 44.39% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
BHP
BHP Group
77.58
24.50
46.15%
GSM
Ferroglobe
4.03
-0.93
-18.70%
RIO
Rio Tinto
84.14
16.89
25.11%
VALE
Vale SA
12.20
1.52
14.24%
NEXA
Nexa Resources SA
11.16
5.70
104.28%
MP
MP Materials
38.56
-29.89
-43.67%
BHP Group Corporate Events
BHP AGM Highlights Record 2026 Dividend, Leadership Shift and Safety Focus
Oct 22, 2026
BHP held its 2026 Annual General Meeting in Sydney on 22 October 2026, with Chair Ross McEwan highlighting a year marked by strong operational and financial performance, record share price levels and total dividends of about A$2.40 per share, equi...
BHP Shareholders Back Board and Executive Pay at 2026 AGM
Oct 22, 2026
On 22 October 2026, BHP Group Limited held its Annual General Meeting in Sydney, where all resolutions were decided by poll and the detailed voting outcomes were released to the market. Shareholders strongly supported the election of Brandon Craig...
BHP Posts Mixed Q1 FY27 Output as Copper Falls but Bulk Commodities and Growth Projects Advance
Oct 21, 2026
For the quarter ended 30 September 2026, BHP reported lower copper output due to planned grade declines, maintenance and weather‑related disruptions in Chile, as well as safety stoppages and a conveyor failure in South Australia. In contrast...
BHP Group Files 2026 Annual Report and Form 6‑K
Aug 19, 2026
BHP Group has filed its 2026 Annual Report, covering the period from 1 July 2025 to 30 June 2026, alongside a Form 6‑K submission to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission dated 18 August 2026. The report consolidates operational, produ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.