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Waste Connections
(TSX:WCN)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
C$284.00
▲(23.59% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:10/23/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying profitability and operating cash generation, supported by a constructive earnings outlook with raised 2026 guidance and positive 2027 free-cash-flow-per-share expectations. These positives are tempered by higher leverage and weaker recent trends in revenue and free cash flow, while technicals are strong but appear overextended and valuation is expensive (high P/E with a low dividend yield).
Positive Factors
Integrated recurring-service model
The company combines recurring collection relationships with transfer, transportation, landfill and recycling assets, allowing it to capture revenue across the waste chain. This integrated model can support route density, customer retention and stronger unit economics over multiple quarters.
Negative Factors
Higher financial leverage
Higher leverage reduces financial flexibility compared with prior years and makes a larger portion of future cash generation necessary for debt-related obligations. It can constrain acquisition capacity, buybacks and investment if operating conditions weaken or interest costs remain elevated.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated recurring-service model
The company combines recurring collection relationships with transfer, transportation, landfill and recycling assets, allowing it to capture revenue across the waste chain. This integrated model can support route density, customer retention and stronger unit economics over multiple quarters.
Read all positive factors
Waste Connections (WCN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$63.66B
Dividend Yield0.76%
Average Volume (3M)437.62K
Price to Earnings (P/E)40.8
Beta (1Y)0.27
Revenue Growth5.54%
EPS Growth84.19%
CountryCA
Employees24,214
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryWaste Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.45
Shares Outstanding250,175,520
10 Day Avg. Volume515,497
30 Day Avg. Volume437,617
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.56
Price to Book (P/B)5.47
Price to Sales (P/S)4.76
P/FCF Ratio36.98
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$287.59Price Target Upside25.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)8
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$14.16B
Waste Connections Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Waste Connections, Inc. is a prominent provider of comprehensive waste management services across the United States and Canada, specializing in the collection, transfer, disposal, and resource recovery of non-hazardous materials. The company offer...
How the Company Makes Money
Waste Connections makes money by charging customers and municipalities recurring fees to collect, move, process, and dispose of non-hazardous solid waste and recyclable materials. Its core revenue model is service-based and largely contractual, wi...
Waste Connections Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 21, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 17, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive, with Q3 revenue and adjusted EBITDA above expectations, underlying margin expansion despite higher diesel costs, improved landfill and special-waste volumes, raised 2026 guidance, strong capital returns and a constructive 2027 growth framework. The company still faces negative unit volumes, fuel-cost pressure, weakness in plastics and residential construction, uncertain E&P activity, and ongoing Chiquita-related spending, but management characterized operating performance, liquidity and strategic positioning as strong.Positive Updates
Q3 Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Beat Expectations
Third-quarter revenue was $2.638 billion, up $180 million or 7.3% year-over-year and above expectations. Adjusted EBITDA was $895.8 million, up 7.9% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 34%.
Negative Updates
Solid Waste Unit Volumes Remained Negative
Solid waste unit volumes declined 1.2% year-over-year in Q3, although this represented a sequential improvement of 70 basis points from Q2.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q3 Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Beat Expectations
Third-quarter revenue was $2.638 billion, up $180 million or 7.3% year-over-year and above expectations. Adjusted EBITDA was $895.8 million, up 7.9% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 34%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026, the company raised its outlook to revenue of approximately $10.09 billion, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $3.345 billion or 33.2%, and adjusted free cash flow of at least $1.4 billion; Q4 guidance implies revenue of about $2.52 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin of 33.3%, up 20 basis points, excluding fuel. For 2027, the framework assumes mid- to high single-digit revenue growth, including about 1% combined rollover from acquisitions already completed and RNG facilities brought online in 2026, or a normalized acquisition contribution of 1% to 2%, adjusted EBITDA margin expansion in what we would consider a normalized range from solid waste, and double-digit growth in adjusted free cash flow per share; longer term, free cash flow conversion is expected to return to 48% to 50% from around 42%, with about $75 million of RNG spend this year largely not repeating, while pricing is generally expected to maintain a 150 basis point spread between price and cost.Waste Connections Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.65B | 9.47B | 8.92B | 8.02B | 7.21B | 6.15B |
| Gross Profit | 3.92B | 4.01B | 3.73B | 3.28B | 2.88B | 2.50B |
| EBITDA | 2.73B | 2.98B | 2.25B | 2.26B | 2.17B | 1.75B |
| Net Income | 1.13B | 1.08B | 617.57M | 762.80M | 835.66M | 618.05M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 21.37B | 21.13B | 19.82B | 17.92B | 17.13B | 14.70B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 95.08M | 45.97M | 62.37M | 78.40M | 78.64M | 147.44M |
| Total Debt | 9.71B | 9.13B | 8.39B | 7.02B | 7.10B | 5.21B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.54B | 12.88B | 11.96B | 10.22B | 10.02B | 7.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.83B | 8.25B | 7.86B | 7.69B | 7.11B | 6.99B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.17B | 1.22B | 1.17B | 1.19B | 1.11B | 953.91M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.50B | 2.41B | 2.23B | 2.13B | 2.02B | 1.70B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.88B | -2.02B | -3.16B | -1.58B | -3.09B | -1.69B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -630.44M | -360.04M | 944.95M | -544.40M | 1.03B | -499.50M |
Waste Connections Technical Analysis
Positive
229.79
Price Trends
228.88
Positive
230.52
Positive
226.21
Positive
Market Momentum
8.96
Negative
67.54
Neutral
71.17
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:WCN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 229.79 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 234.93, above the 50-day MA of 228.88, and above the 200-day MA of 226.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 8.96 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:WCN.
Waste Connections Risk Analysis
Waste Connections disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Waste Connections reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Waste Connections Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | C$63.66B | 40.80 | 14.18% | 0.76% | 5.54% | 84.19% | |
67 Neutral | C$27.44B | -99.01 | -4.32% | 0.15% | 7.49% | 79.67% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
49 Neutral | C$45.18M | -8.69 | -14.00% | ― | 39.33% | -660.48% | |
47 Neutral | C$327.51M | 20.88 | -29.88% | ― | 101.45% | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
TSE:WCN
Waste Connections
254.46
21.24
9.11%
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Waste Connections Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Waste Connections Sets October Dates for Q3 2026 Earnings Release and Investor Call
Neutral
Sep 30, 2026
Waste Connections, Inc. will release its third-quarter 2026 financial results after market close on October 21, 2026, followed by an investor conference call on October 22 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. A live audio webcast, preregistration options fo...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.