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Waste Connections
(TSX:WCN)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
C$260.00
▲(13.15% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:07/23/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance (healthy margins and strong cash generation) and a constructive earnings update with raised 2026 revenue/EBITDA guidance and improving operational execution. Offsetting this are elevated leverage trends, a premium valuation (high P/E with a low yield), and only moderate technical setup with some near-term softness versus the 20-day average.
Positive Factors
Essential, vertically integrated waste services
Waste collection and disposal are essential services with recurring customer payments. Combining hauling, transfer and landfill assets can improve route density, pricing resilience and margins while creating durable infrastructure advantages.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage reduces financial flexibility
Higher debt increases sensitivity to refinancing costs and interest rates and limits balance-sheet flexibility for acquisitions or unexpected liabilities. Although leverage may be manageable in this stable industry, its upward trend is a lasting risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Essential, vertically integrated waste services
Waste collection and disposal are essential services with recurring customer payments. Combining hauling, transfer and landfill assets can improve route density, pricing resilience and margins while creating durable infrastructure advantages.
Read all positive factors
Waste Connections (WCN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$56.73B
Dividend Yield0.87%
Average Volume (3M)302.61K
Price to Earnings (P/E)38.9
Beta (1Y)0.31
Revenue Growth4.75%
EPS Growth65.72%
CountryCA
Employees24,214
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryWaste Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.12
Shares Outstanding252,049,530
10 Day Avg. Volume238,017
30 Day Avg. Volume302,606
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.56
Price to Book (P/B)5.47
Price to Sales (P/S)4.76
P/FCF Ratio36.98
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$276.90Price Target Upside20.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)7.93
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$14.10B
Waste Connections Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Waste Connections, Inc. is a prominent provider of comprehensive waste management services across the United States and Canada, specializing in the collection, transfer, disposal, and resource recovery of non-hazardous materials. The company offer...
How the Company Makes Money
Waste Connections makes money mainly by charging recurring service fees for essential waste-management services and by earning disposal-related revenues through its owned infrastructure.
1) Collection (hauling) revenues: The core revenue stream c...
Waste Connections Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 22, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple positive operational and financial developments: revenue and adjusted EBITDA grew ahead of expectations, management raised full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance, adjusted EBITDA margin expanded, RNG and commodity trends provide upside, AI investments are delivering early tangible benefits, and capital allocation (M&A and buybacks) is active with leverage steady. Headwinds include volume softness (down 1.9%), fuel-driven cost pressure (≈40 bps drag), commodity-value drag (≈20 bps), Chiquita Canyon cash impacts ($100M–$150M in 2026), and lumpy special waste volumes. On balance, the positives — including raised guidance, margin expansion, improving commodity and RNG trends, and clear AI-led productivity gains — substantially outweigh the contained, mostly manageable lowlights.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth Exceeds Expectations
Q2 revenue of $2.562 billion, up $155 million or 6.4% year-over-year; updated full-year 2026 revenue outlook to $10.02B–$10.05B (an increase of $100M–$120M from February).
Negative Updates
Volume Weakness Amid Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Average volumes down 1.9% in Q2 (solid waste volumes decline), roll-off pulls down 2% YoY; construction-related activity slowed and some projects paused during Q2, constraining volume growth despite pricing gains.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth Exceeds Expectations
Q2 revenue of $2.562 billion, up $155 million or 6.4% year-over-year; updated full-year 2026 revenue outlook to $10.02B–$10.05B (an increase of $100M–$120M from February).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Waste Connections raised its 2026 outlook: revenue $10.02–10.05B (up $100–120M from February), adjusted EBITDA $3.33–3.34B (implied full‑year margin 33.2%–33.3%), and unchanged adjusted free cash flow $1.40–1.45B (includes $100–150M of Chiquita Canyon cash impacts); capital expenditures are expected to be $1.25B and RNG/R&D spend about $75M this year. Management expects H2 adjusted EBITDA margin to average ~33.7% (Q3 could exceed 34%, Q4 faces tougher comps), maintains an underlying solid‑waste margin expansion target of ~50–70 bps, and continues to expect double‑digit adjusted FCF per‑share growth. Other metrics cited: YTD adj. FCF $703M, YTD CapEx ~$600M, YTD buybacks ~$692M (>1.5% of shares), leverage 2.76x, YTD M&A ≈$100M revenue with an additional ~$30M expected and $30M rollover into 2027.Waste Connections Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 9.70B | 9.47B | 8.92B | 8.02B | 7.21B | 6.15B |
| Gross Profit | 3.81B | 4.01B | 3.73B | 3.28B | 2.88B | 2.50B |
| EBITDA | 2.94B | 2.98B | 2.25B | 2.26B | 2.17B | 1.75B |
| Net Income | 1.05B | 1.08B | 617.57M | 762.80M | 835.66M | 618.05M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 21.36B | 21.13B | 19.82B | 17.92B | 17.13B | 14.70B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 98.02M | 45.97M | 62.37M | 78.40M | 78.64M | 147.44M |
| Total Debt | 9.62B | 9.13B | 8.39B | 7.02B | 7.10B | 5.21B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.46B | 12.88B | 11.96B | 10.22B | 10.02B | 7.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.91B | 8.25B | 7.86B | 7.69B | 7.11B | 6.99B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.95B | 1.22B | 1.17B | 1.19B | 1.11B | 953.91M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.48B | 2.41B | 2.23B | 2.13B | 2.02B | 1.70B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.94B | -2.02B | -3.16B | -1.58B | -3.09B | -1.69B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -543.29M | -360.04M | 944.95M | -544.40M | 1.03B | -499.50M |
Waste Connections Technical Analysis
Negative
229.79
Price Trends
234.51
Negative
225.45
Negative
228.03
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.02
Positive
35.43
Neutral
17.62
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:WCN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 229.79 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 229.83, below the 50-day MA of 234.51, and above the 200-day MA of 228.03, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.62 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:WCN.
Waste Connections Risk Analysis
Waste Connections disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Waste Connections reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Waste Connections Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | C$56.73B | 38.95 | 13.18% | 0.87% | 4.75% | 65.72% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | C$25.76B | -91.19 | -3.32% | 0.16% | -3.64% | 87.49% | |
58 Neutral | C$5.37B | 40.72 | 16.77% | 1.33% | -64.71% | -27.78% | |
56 Neutral | C$453.19M | 28.07 | -29.88% | ― | 101.45% | ― | |
49 Neutral | C$49.03M | -9.53 | -14.00% | ― | 39.33% | -660.48% |
* Industrials Sector Average
TSE:WCN
Waste Connections
222.48
-21.96
-8.98%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.